The Downstream Set Off A Concentrated Stock Craze. PTA Enterprises "Have To Live A Good Life".

At the beginning of the year, the focus of the market was once again concentrated on the downstream terminal of the PTA industry chain.

This year, affected by the bottom up of crude oil prices, the terminal of PTA industry chain carried out a round of centralized replenishment under the condition of relatively low raw materials.

At the same time, the overall performance of terminal demand is still good, and the profit of polyester production is good (except POY). Inventory is relatively low, and the pressure is significantly relieved than before.

However, it is important to note that during the long Spring Festival, there will be a seasonal decline in demand, and terminal weaving has begun to gradually reduce load.

The links in the PTA industry chain have changed, and the impact of these new changes on the profits of the industry chain will be concerned by the market participants.

Recently, the friends circle of polyester industry has published various recruitment information. Post is not after the Spring Festival, but before the Spring Festival.

Although it is now approaching the Spring Festival, the polyester market has ushered in the upsurge of centralized stocking before the Spring Festival.

In the interview, the reporter learned that, since the beginning of this year, the atmosphere of the fabric market has not declined with the drop in temperature. Polyester filament price has gone up, and the polyester market has been very hot.

It is understood that as of mid January, loom and polyester load is still relatively high level, weaving manufacturers are still working overtime production.

"After the end of the new year's holiday, boosted by the eight rise in international oil prices and the higher purchasing power from downstream, the polyester filament market broke the dilemma of low production and marketing and" one day tour "at the beginning of the month, and production and sales continued to improve, especially in the POY market.

According to Wu Xiaofen, an analyst of China silk net, from 7 to 11 January, the mainstream production and sale rate of polyester market has exceeded 100 percent to become the norm.

It is understood that in the second half of last year, the price of PTA and polyester filament products plummeted and plunged, making the market mentality of downstream bombs and weaving become more cautious, which also led to weak demand performance.

Until December last year, the demand for polyester market remained unchanged after the fall in crude oil prices continued.

In 2019, with the rebound of crude oil prices, PTA followed up vigorously, and the enthusiasm of downstream purchasing was stimulated, and the market production and sales rebounded.

In addition, the polyester market has entered the centralized maintenance cycle, the supply has decreased and the demand has picked up. The high storage pressure of polyester has been effectively alleviated.

In one German futures analyst Zheng Youfei, last year, raw material prices fluctuated greatly disrupted the pace of terminal procurement, 7 - August, raw material prices rose sharply, resulting in shrinkage of downstream demand, gray cloth profits were also suppressed.

In recent months, the price of raw materials has dropped sharply, coupled with the steady rise of crude oil, the downstream demand has improved.

Due to the recent downstream replenishment (including demand for orders and speculative demand), plus the promotion of polyester factories near the Spring Festival, the polyester filament market will be "crazy again" before the Spring Festival.

According to the statistics of China silk net, as of the end of 1, the overall stock of polyester market is 9 to 17 days, and the stock of major products has also returned from high inventory to the same period last year.

In addition to POY's loss, other varieties have good cash flow.

Lower inventory and better cash flow make some planned overhaul enterprises reduce production or shorten maintenance time.

"Generally speaking, the inventory level is high, and the polyester plant will first adopt a means of reducing sales promotion to reduce inventory. If prices are still poor or the loss is longer after the price is cut, it may be possible to choose production reduction or overhaul."

Zheng Youfei said, in fact, the seasonal weakness of polyester and weaving demand at this time of year is often the focus and main logic of the market, and this year is no exception.

Although the market still has the heat left after the "prosperous fire", Zheng Youfei believes that the gradual weakening of the downstream work before the Spring Festival is still relatively determined.

"With regard to weak demand, the focus is on downstream start-up."

Zheng Youfei said that from the second week of January, we saw a gradual decline in the beginning of the weaving end. The polyester terminal was rebuilt due to the sufficient power of the terminal replenishment, and the inventory pressure was relieved.

It is estimated that centralized load reduction should not be excluded after late January, because some factories are relatively effective in terms of overhauling or reducing production time.

"The annual Spring Festival is the PTA storage period, and its own maintenance is less, and the downstream is greatly reduced.

Of course, the magnitude and maintenance time of downstream loss are adjusted according to market dynamics.

In the production supervisor of a polyester manufacturer in Zhejiang, the impact of seasonal demand weakening on PTA is obvious.

From the current forecast and maintenance of PTA, there are not many planned overhauls from 2 to March, but the 2 million 200 thousand tons of Hengli Dalian and 2 million 200 thousand tons of Jiaxing Petrochemical were originally planned for overhaul in January, which is now postponed and is expected to be overlooked in the off-season February.

This will reduce the supply pressure in February, but the demand may decline more obviously in February. It is expected that 400 thousand to 500 thousand tons will be stored in February.

However, with the gradual resumption of polyester after the festival, the PTA market will enter a tight balance between supply and demand.

"The PTA market is expected to continue to improve after the Spring Festival season, which is one of the logic of the recent PTA rise."

Zheng Youfei said.

Reporters found that in the PTA industry chain, judging the prosperity often has an indispensable factor - processing fees.

The processing fee reflects the profit situation of PTA spot processing, and is also the focus of attention of the market participants in each survey.

In the industry, the level of processing fees will directly affect the production enthusiasm of enterprises, and then affect the price through supply.

"Under normal circumstances, the processing fee is high, PTA production profit is good, the production enthusiasm of enterprises is high, the supply of PTA has increased expectations, the processing fee is low, the production enthusiasm of enterprises is low, and the supply of PTA is decreasing."

Pang Chunyan, an analyst of China investment and Anshun futures, said.

According to Pang Chunyan, from 2014 to 2016, the PTA processing fee was at a low level, and some of the higher cost devices were difficult to make profits. Therefore, Fujian Jialong, 600 thousand tons, 900 thousand tons of Peng Wei petrochemical, 700 thousand tons of Hon Bang petrochemical and 650 thousand tons of Yisheng petrochemical company had been parking for a long time. Liaoyang Petrochemical's 800 thousand tons, BP Petrochemical 600 thousand tons, Yisheng Ningbo 650 thousand tons and other less profitable devices directly withdrew from the PTA market.

Since the end of 2016, PTA processing fees have picked up. Some of the old parking devices have been restarted, and Peng Wei petrochemical, Fujian Jialong and Hon Bang Petrochemical small line have been restarted.

In 2018, the processing fees of PTA remained at a relatively high level, so the production enthusiasm of enterprises was very high, and the situation of overproduction was relatively common.

In the interview, futures Daily reporters learned that the processing fees of chemical products were greatly influenced by technological improvement and expansion of production scale.

Take PTA as an example, before 2009, the scale of the PTA plant put into operation in China was basically below 700 thousand tons, and the processing cost was about 1000 yuan / ton. After 2010, all the plants put into operation were 1 million tons or so, and the processing cost dropped from 1000 yuan to 700 yuan / ton. After 2015, the installations were all over 1 million 200 thousand tons, or even more than 2 million tons, and the processing cost dropped to 600 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the scale of PTA production of leading enterprises has been expanding, and the cost advantages of large enterprises are obvious.

In addition, the equilibrium point of PTA Processing Fee mentioned in the market is 580 yuan / ton, which is only the average situation of the industry, and the actual processing fee of each enterprise will be different.

Pang Chunyan said.

In fact, processing fee can not only be used as an indicator to judge the enthusiasm of enterprises, but also an important part of the trading strategy.

"From 2014 to 2016, domestic traders refer to PTA processing fees to operate more widely."

Pang Chunyan said that when processing fees were below the level of 400 yuan / ton, they would do more PTA, and they would be short of PTA when they were higher than 700 yuan / ton. The strategy was effective in the serious period of PTA overcapacity.

However, from the end of 2016, the situation of overcapacity in domestic PTA began to slow down. In 2017, the restart of the Peng Wei petrochemical plant represented the era when PTA bid farewell to the low processing fee. The PTA processing fee began to pick up in the second half of 2017, and the processing cost of 900 to 1000 yuan / ton became the norm.

In the three quarter of 2018, the processing fee exceeded 2000 yuan / ton for a while, reproducing huge profits. Although it lasted for a long time, the expected performance completely broke the traditional thinking that the industry stared at the high processing fee and shorted PTA.

But PTA profits squeezed the downstream living space, so it is difficult to sustain.

"The decline in the price of PTA at the beginning of the fourth quarter of last year started with the initiative of the PTA company to make profits. Then, along with the decline in oil prices and the continuing pessimism of the consumer side, the PTA processing fee went back to less than 1000 yuan per ton."

Pang Chunyan said.

According to the schedule announced in 2019, domestic PTA has limited new capacity, especially in the first three quarters.

"From the whole year, the incremental supply of PTA is unlikely to meet the growth of the consumption of pet terminals. The tight supply of PTA will continue. Especially in the two or three quarter, a large number of domestic PTA devices have entered the new year's maintenance period. The supply of PTA will remain tight, so high processing fees will become the norm."

Pang Chunyan said, but at the end of 2019, with the advent of the new round of PTA devices, the PTA will again face the dilemma of overcapacity. The high processing fees will go down as new capacity goes into operation.

Since the end of 2016, the polyester industry has entered the industry boom cycle, especially in the three quarter of 2018, reaching the climax of the industry boom.

From the perspective of PTA industry chain profit, the supply and demand pattern of all aspects of PX - PTA - PET has been improved in the first two years as the pace of PX - PTA capacity expansion has slowed down and the demand for global economic recovery has increased synchronously.

"PTA pyramid type production capacity growth rate makes PX's profits far higher than PTA and polyester links. Especially PTA, driven by the high demand for polyester, has gradually shifted from overcapacity before 2016 to a tight balance between supply and demand.

In 2017, PTA manufacturers produced a profit of 122 yuan per ton, with a profit of 378 yuan per ton in 2018. "

Li Jing, an analyst at Minmetals futures, said.

"Overall, the PX profit of upstream raw materials is the largest and the strongest.

PTA link production profit has expanded year by year, and in a particular period, showing a sharp upward trend of downward trend.

The production profit of polyester enterprises increased slightly from 2015 to 2018.

At present, the profit of the industry chain is mainly concentrated in the upstream PX link, and the profit of PTA and polyester links is relatively low.

Wang Guangqian, an analyst at Soochow futures.

In the interview, the reporter learned that in fact, profit distribution is closely related to the supply and demand pattern of every link and the game between upstream and downstream of the industrial chain.

The pattern of healthy industry must be profitable in the middle and lower reaches of the whole industry chain. If a certain link is shrinking or even losing, it will affect the supply of its own products, which will play a two-way role in the upstream and downstream products.

"On the one hand, it will lead to a reduction in demand for upstream raw materials, which will further reduce the cost of raw materials and reduce the cost. On the other hand, it will help improve the supply and demand of products and enhance the bargaining power of products. When the supply of products is reduced to a certain extent, the cost side will decline, and the price of their products will rise as a result of supply and demand improvement, and their production profits will be improved."

Wang Guangqian said that the distribution and pfer of profits in the industrial chain will be adjusted spontaneously through the marketization mechanism. For a long period of time, there is no possibility of long-term losses or long-term profits of the whole industry chain.

At present, the profit of the PTA industry chain is more healthy than before, and all sectors of the industry are profitable. Especially under the stimulation of the considerable profit of PX, a large scale refining and chemical plant has been gradually launched in China. In 2019, the effective release of 13 million 300 thousand tons will be gradually released from two to fourth quarter.

The polyester link has been stable for nearly two years, and it has also promoted the rapid growth of polyester production capacity since 2018. It is estimated that 2019 will continue to add about 4 million 400 thousand tons of polyester production capacity.

"It is estimated that the PX production profits in 2019 will be accompanied by the commissioning of PX's new capacity, and will be substantially reduced to PTA downstream.

Demand side polyester new capacity release is higher than PTA, will pfer part of profits to upstream PTA. "

Li Jing said.

In the industry's view, with the PX's new capacity being put into operation in the late stage, the pfer of PX's profit to the middle and lower reaches is the general trend. But when PX's new capacity is put into operation, it is a big uncertainty.

It can be expected that in 2019, the profit distribution of the whole industry will show the trend of profit contraction at the upstream and downstream sides, and PTA manufacturers will become highly profitable or normal.