Wind Up The Chemical Industry In China'S Coastal Areas, Where Will The Enterprises Go?

The chain reaction of the "3. 21" explosion that started in Xiangshui, Yancheng, is still continuing to ferment. Following the rapid start of large-scale emergency investigation operations in several provinces, in April 1st, the general office of the Jiangsu Provincial People's government issued an urgent notice to solicit opinions on the upgrading plan for the chemical industry in Jiangsu province. It was proposed that by the end of 2020, the number of chemical production enterprises in the province would be reduced to 2000, and by 2022 the number would not exceed 1000; at the same time, a comprehensive evaluation of 50 chemical industrial parks in the whole province would be carried out, and the results could be reduced to about 20 according to the evaluation results.

On April 4th, the Standing Committee of the Yancheng Municipal Committee held that the Xiangshui Chemical Industrial Park would be completely shut down, and the small chemical industry with high safety and environmental protection problems should be eliminated. The standards of chemical industrial parks and enterprises should be further raised to support the construction of "no chemical zones".

These two incidents have aroused widespread concern in the society, and have been unanimously interpreted as the fuse for the adjustment of the layout and structure of chemical industry. In chemical industry, there is a sudden uproar.

China's chemical industry development research center has conducted a follow-up study on the coastal chemical rectification and upgrading actions that have been pushed out and escalated by safety and environmental protection in recent years.

Since 2012, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, Tianjin and other coastal chemical industry provinces and cities have been faced with severe security and environmental protection situation. They have launched a round of chemical industry upgrading and upgrading step by step, especially in Shandong and Jiangsu provinces, which are the first and second locations of chemical industry in the long term. The intensity of policy intervention is unprecedented in history.

In addition, since 2017, along with the construction of the Yangtze River economic belt has entered a climax, the upgrading of the chemical industry along the Yangtze River has also suddenly upgraded.

Along the coast and along the Yangtze River, it has been the base for the development of China's chemical industry. This pattern has undergone a long history of development in the past hundred years, from sprouting to development to the other.

But in recent years, with the concentrated outbreak of safety and environmental problems in the concentration areas of chemical industry, the reality has already shaken the existing pattern and foundation of China's chemical industry in the past century.

Around four key points, including control increment, optimizing stock, entering into the park and supervising the whole field, Shandong, the first chemical industry of China, has carried out a great special action for the pformation and upgrading of the chemical industry in 2017. In one year, 620 chemical enterprises were closed and 2614 were shut down, accounting for 42.5% of the chemical production enterprises in the province.

The next step, Shandong will also strive to close over 20% of the enterprises on the existing basis, and control the chemical production enterprises in the province to less than 5000, to achieve the reduction of chemical enterprises.

In terms of Chemical Industrial Park governance, there are more than 200 kinds of chemical industrial parks (clustered areas) in Shandong province.

Since last year, Shandong has carried out the management of Chemical Industrial Park and specialized chemical industrial park. Up to now, it has been approved and identified by 66 rounds.

Shandong province is clear that eventually it will only retain 85 chemical parks, including 75 comprehensive parks and 10 professional parks, through rectification.

For those old parks that have not been re identified as parks, and can not be identified as the gathering areas of the parks, they are not allowed to make new, expanded or new chemical capacity projects, that is to say, they only reserve the right to subsistence, and basically close the door for further development.

Jiangsu chemical industry in recent years, the second provinces of China's chemical upgrading action has also been very large, thousands of small and medium-sized chemical enterprises along the Yangtze River and Taihu have been cleared up, but with the Yancheng Xiangshui "3. 21" explosion accident, the rectification action has further escalated.

"Jiangsu chemical industry upgrading plan (Draft)" put forward that the goal is to thoroughly optimize the industrial planning and layout of the chemical industry in the whole province, and substantially reduce the chemical production enterprises along the 1 kilometers of the tributaries along the Yangtze River, the environmentally sensitive areas, the densely populated areas of cities and towns, the chemical industrial parks, and below the scale.

By the end of 2020, the number of chemical production enterprises in the province was reduced to 2000.

By 2022, the number of chemical production enterprises in the province will not exceed 1000.

At the same time, we should reduce the number of chemical industrial parks, promote the renovation and upgrading of chemical industrial parks, and speed up the construction of high level chemical industrial parks.

A comprehensive comprehensive evaluation of 50 chemical industrial parks in the whole province was carried out, and the results were reduced to about 20 according to the evaluation results.

Strict access to chemical industry, improve industry access threshold.

The investment amount of newly built chemical projects is not less than 1 billion yuan in principle. New chemical intermediates for pesticides, pharmaceuticals and dyestuffs will not be built and chemical pesticide production enterprises will no longer be added.

A negative list management system should be established, and the scope of elimination and prohibition of catalogues should be further expanded according to the requirements of controlling high pollution, high energy consumption and backward processes.

Since 2012, Zhejiang province has carried out a 3 year chemical industry rectification and upgrading action to control chemical industry.

In 2018, Zhejiang Province issued the "three years plan of action to win the blue sky", explicitly proposed the prohibition of the new chemical industrial park, comprehensively harnessing "scattered pollution" enterprises, and took 100 key industrial parks as the starting point to promote the governance of various industrial parks.

Due to its early start and great efforts, its effectiveness is also the most prominent. At present, the chemical safety and environmental protection situation in Zhejiang, a chemical industry province, has been greatly alleviated.

Due to the explosion of "8? 12" in 2015, Tianjin has also greatly upgraded the chemical industry governance and layout planning. It has clearly gathered the chemical industry scattered in the city to the Nangang industrial bureau to achieve the goal of eliminating a batch and upgrading a batch.

What is the background and logic of this agitated coastal chemical industry linkage and how will it bring China's chemical industry to where? Our research team believes that this is the perfect storm that is out of step with the development stage. It is neither too early nor too late.

We take Jiangsu Province as an example to make a sample analysis. The following is a picture of the change of GDP per capita in Jiangsu province since 2010.

It can be seen that as China's economically developed coastal provinces, Jiangsu's per capita GDP exceeded US $10 thousand as early as 2012, and exceeded the world average for the first time in 2013.

In 2018, Jiangsu's per capita GDP reached 17 thousand and 400 US dollars, which has reached or near the level of moderately developed countries, taking the lead in achieving a major leap forward in the development stage.

As we all know, different stages of development correspond to different industrial forms and levels.

In the early stage of agricultural development, there is no exception and no alternative is to grow grain. In the middle period of development, some crops will be replanted, such as vegetables and fruits. Grain production will also speed up industrial upgrading. At the later stage of development, there will be a large number of advanced forms such as ecological agriculture, organic agriculture and leisure agriculture, and the appearance of basic agriculture will also change dramatically.

The development stage and the industrial form are mutually mapped. Mismatches or disjointing often result in serious problems.

In any developed country, its agriculture is not likely to be extensive and low-level farming. Instead, it should be dominated by modern agriculture. In an organic ecological manor, it is impossible to intersate the primary planting agriculture with manure and water.

That's the truth.

The problem of chemical industry in Jiangsu is out of step with the development stage.

As an economy that has reached or approaching the level of moderately developed countries, the chemical industry in Jiangsu is a mixed and complex form spanning 30 years of different stages of development. It has a modern chemical industry that matches the level of moderately developed countries, and there is also a low-level chemical industry of primary form, and its scale is not small.

In addition to the industrial mix, the distribution of industries is also highly dispersed. Every city and even every county has chemical conditions, which makes it very difficult to manage.

Then, according to the development stage of Jiangsu, what is the corresponding form of chemical industry? What form should Jiangsu chemical industry pursue and advocate? Obviously, there should be a corresponding chemical industry system and level corresponding to the level of moderately developed countries. The chemical industry in Jiangsu should naturally be equivalent to the chemical industry in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Oman and other Middle East countries.

Czech, Estonia, Greece, Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Hungary and other Middle Eastern European countries and Saudi Arabia, Oman and other Middle East oil producing countries have per capita GDP ranging from 15 thousand US dollars to US $25 thousand, which is basically at the same level of development as Jiangsu.

But compared with them, the disconnection between chemical industry and development stage in Jiangsu is obvious. There are two main differences: first, in the middle and high-end chemical industry, Jiangsu is basically in the same level and synchronized with the above areas, but at the same time, there are still a large number of middle and low end industries in Jiangsu Province, which are not in the above-mentioned areas. Secondly, the distribution of chemical industry in Jiangsu is very fragmented, while the chemical industry in central and Eastern Europe and the Middle East is basically dominated by large enterprises and the layout of parks is obvious.

By comparison, it is not difficult to draw a conclusion: whether it is the massive pressure put forward by Jiangsu chemical industry upgrading plan to reduce the chemical enterprises and the "scattered pollution" enterprises, or Yancheng City explore the construction of "no chemical district", it is not wrong to aim at the goal orientation. Jiangsu has indeed reached such a stage that the high-end industry and large enterprises should play an absolute leading role, and there is no need for every city or county to have chemical industry.

However, from the perspective of development, Jiangsu has consciously pushed ahead with the adjustment and upgrading of the chemical industry ten years ago. The problem has been accumulating until the present situation has been rushed into the severe situation and trying to accomplish its work in the short term. It is indeed easy to impress people with impetuosity and impetuosity. This is also the fundamental reason for the chemical industry's boating of the new deal.

At the same time, it also raises another problem. Industrial management and planning need to have a forward-looking vision. It is necessary to lead 5~10 years ahead of the actual development, otherwise it will easily fall into the embarrassment of missing opportunities or riding a tiger.

As early as 10 years ago, Jiangsu province formulated and implemented its own chemical industry adjustment and upgrading action in the Middle East and Middle East oil producing countries.

Those who are not to be admonished can still catch up with them. At this moment, what kind of new goals should Jiangsu target and formulate and implement the new adjustment and upgrading of chemical industry?

With this new goal, our research team believes that the most suitable one should be Korea.

South Korea is also an East Asian economy, and also a chemical power. It has a lead of 10 years or so with the development stage of Jiangsu province. It is exactly the ideal target of Jiangsu chemical industry's current learning benchmarking.

The comparison between the two chemical industries is shown in the table below.

By comparing with the chemical industry in South Korea, the disparity and direction of the adjustment and upgrading of chemical industry in Jiangsu is also obvious: to eliminate the low-end industries and enterprises, to make valuable resources and development space for leading enterprises and sophisticated industries; to gather space for industrial development, to expand a number of excellent chemical industrial parks, and to completely change the scattered chemical industry layout.

Wind and matter should be looked at. In the first ten years, the chemical industry in Jiangsu province was out of line with the development stage. It has caused today's trouble. But from the perspective of progress, we should not take the blame for Jiangsu's "amazing action" in the next ten years.

Moreover, we should cut more than half of the number of chemical enterprises and parks, completely close the Xiangshui Chemical Industrial Park and explore the construction of the "non chemical area", and the people of Jiangsu and Yancheng who are born in Si Si Si have the right to speak and choose.

The economically developed Jiangsu province is full of emboldened, and it is necessary for the chemical industry to "Categorization policy": eliminate and quit the undeveloped chemical industry, focus on leading the future green high-end industry, and achieve a historic pformation of quality development between advance and retreat.

The problems of Jiangsu province exist more or less in the eastern coastal chemical industry provinces. As the most elite region of China's economy, there are huge numbers of low-end industries and enterprises that are out of development stage.

Under the realistic framework of local protectionism and departmentalism, policymakers and industry management departments are easily caught up in the myth of eating up and down, but in fact, this is against the law of development and is impossible at all.

At present, the storm of chemical renovation that has been forced in Jiangsu, Shandong and other places shows us a truth: the development of chemical industry must be compatible with the level of the local economy and society. It can neither be too advanced nor disjointed. It is not a pfer of human will.

There is no doubt that the major spillover effects of Shandong, Jiangsu and other chemical industry upgrading industries are beyond doubt.

A large number of middle and low end chemical production capacity and a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises that have been shut out by the coastal chemical industry will be withdrawn from the stage of history. If they do not quit, what form will they return to the stage? This is the variable that we are most concerned about.

Our research team, after logical analysis and re analysis of the previous research, draw a general conclusion that the chemical industry in the economically developed areas of eastern China will eventually achieve the two reconstruction of the layout and structure of the national chemical industry in the westward March. The Chinese chemical industry will eventually undergo a dramatic change. The eastern coastal areas of the future will become the base of the large refining and high-end chemical industry, and the capacity of the basic chemical industry will be pferred to the central and western regions, especially in the central region.

From the logical reasoning point of view, in Jiangsu, Shandong and other places, against the background of the strict end of the middle and low end chemical industry, we must not exclude a part of enterprises from "going back to their farms" or finding another way out, but this will not become the mainstream because of the considerable profit return of the current chemical industry.

Benefit from the big business cycle and solid supply side structural reform, since 2017, the domestic petrochemical market and global resonance continued to become red, becoming the leading plate of this round of macroeconomic recovery cycle, and most of the profits in the chemical subdivision sector were considerable.

Taking the chemical pesticides and intermediates, pharmaceutical intermediates, dyestuff intermediates and other industries as examples, the current gross profit rate in many areas can even reach over 50%, which is an irresistible temptation for industrial capital. This is a case study of Jiangsu chemical industry upgrading program.

According to the prediction of IHS and other authoritative organizations, the global business cycle of chemical industry is expected to continue until around 2021. Sensitive industrial capital can not pass the business cycle that is difficult to meet in the ten years.

The most predictable way out is to move westward, which is a step pfer to the central and western regions that are less comprehensive, cheaper, safer and more environmentally friendly than the eastern coastal areas.

Although the western region is far away from the core area of the market, it is rich in resources and low in factor cost. It is still attractive to some specific industries. Although the central and upper reaches of the Yangtze River economic belt is also in the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River, it is also a storm of safety and environmental protection, but it can not be compared with the eastern coastal areas.

For example, the regulation of chemical industry in the Yangtze River economic belt is mainly focused on the clean-up and renovation of chemical enterprises and parks within 1 km along the Yangtze River. Although it covers a wide range, the investment layout of chemical projects obviously has bigger holes and space than other areas such as Shandong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang.

From our preliminary research, we also confirm the fact that the eastern coastal chemical industry is moving westward.

With the supervision of dye and intermediates industries in Shandong Province, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and northeast and Northwest China has been greatly upgraded. In recent two or three years, a large number of dyestuffs and intermediates have been pferred. Because of lower production and operation costs and more relaxed policy atmosphere, they have caused great competition pressure to dye leading enterprises in the eastern base camp.

In addition, for a long time, chemical enterprises in the central and western regions have learned from the advanced enterprises and parks in the eastern coastal areas.

But in the past two years, chemical entrepreneurs in Zhejiang and other places began to spontaneously organize visits to the central and western regions.

In a word, the chemical industry in the East and Midwest is not likely to leave the group because of the drastic changes in the policy environment. It is a more logical and realistic direction for the development of the depressions, including the depressions of the cost, the depressions of resources and the low-lying land of the policy.

Does this mean that the central and western regions have the risk of becoming a new area of "gathering dirt and dirt"? Otherwise, it is still the saying, as long as we firmly grasp a principle that the development of chemical industry must match and match with the local economic and social development stages, and in the continuous optimization and upgrading of development, chemical industry can be used for economic and social development, instead of becoming a burden, drag and hidden danger.

In the eastern coastal areas, the middle and low end chemical industry has the intention and motivation to cascade pfer to the central and western regions. Then, for the central and western regions, is it going to take full advantage of the situation, or is it scientifically guided and precisely chosen? This is a very crucial issue. If we do not clarify the rules at the beginning of the trend, then the embarrassment encountered in the eastern coastal areas will surely be reproduced in the central and western regions tomorrow. There is no doubt about that.

The eastern and Western cascade pfer of China's industrial economy has gone through many years, and many problems should be exposed. The most critical criticism is that the pfer of production capacity is accompanied by the pfer of high pollution, high energy consumption and high risk.

In order to prevent this problem from happening again, a new round of chemical industry pfer climax may occur. It is necessary for the central and western regions to plan as early as possible, and make top-level design of policy plans and systems.

For this reason, we propose:

First, support the pfer of industrial capital and stop simple pfer of capacity.

The central and western regions should be highly vigilant against such signs: some speculators are not bright in the East and bright in the West. They simply pfer the backward production capacity that should be resolutely eliminated to the central and western regions.

Therefore, access control is very critical. We must give priority to the pfer of industrial capital, support the construction of chemical industry capital in the eastern region in the Midwest and invest in new projects. We should give appropriate support to policies, which can be lower than the eastern region in terms of control standards, but must be higher than that of the state and the whole industry. The bottom line of the "pass line" must not be lost.

In addition, we should strengthen dynamic management, continuously upgrade the corresponding control standards according to the level of local economic and social development, and strengthen the guidance of the industry's good and bad.

Second, highlight professional investment.

Compared with the eastern coastal areas, the biggest advantage of the central and western regions is resource elements.

The resource endowments of each province are different. This requires outstanding selection and precise docking in the undertaking of industrial pfer, rather than just collecting all the goods and putting them into the basket.

For example, Guizhou province is rich in phosphorus and coal resources, and its ability to guarantee water resources is strong. To undertake industrial pfer, we should give priority to how to make high-value and efficient utilization of local phosphorus and coal resources, and focus on developing medium and high-end phosphate coal resources deep processing industries.

Specialization has a great advantage, that is, it is convenient for precise and efficient management, and the safety factor is naturally higher.

Security incidents in Shandong and Jiangsu have been frequent in recent years.

In fact, supervision has been strict enough, the regulatory authorities are also hard enough, but the scale of the industry is so large and the categories are so complex that each industry has different technological parameters, technical requirements and safety regulations. How to manage it? Therefore, the scale of the chemical industry is not very large.

Just imagine, if every province has only a few distinctive chemical industries, only a few highly specialized industrial parks, will precise and effective regulation become a problem?

Third, the purpose and principle of strengthening the superior industrial chain.

After 70 years of development after the founding of the people's Republic of China, the industrial structure of the central and western regions has been basically established, and the dominant industries, characteristic industries and potential industries of each province have also come to light.

As an important raw material industry, chemical industry has ten directly related industries, which is of great significance for further strengthening related downstream industries.

Therefore, the central and western provinces in the process of undertaking the pfer of Eastern chemical industry, there is another important principle is to strengthen the local advantages of the industrial chain.

For example, Hunan province is not only a big agricultural province, but also an important production base for nonferrous metals and construction machinery in China.

Nonferrous metals industry needs a large number of raw materials such as sulfuric acid and other chemical raw materials. The construction machinery industry needs coatings as supporting facilities. In order to further expand the dominant industries of local nonferrous metals and construction machinery, Hunan has every reason and space to undertake industrial capital pfer, and expand the matching sulfuric acid and special coatings industry.

Henan has always been the focus of China's textile industry, especially the cotton spinning industry. Even today, with the rapid development of the cotton textile industry in the eastern coastal areas and Xinjiang, Henan still occupies an important position in China's cotton textile map.

At present, Henan's cotton textile industry is speeding up pformation and upgrading, and the demand for high quality printing and dyeing industry is rigid.

Therefore, in the process of undertaking industrial pfer at home and abroad, Henan's opening to the printing and dyeing industry and dyestuff industry has become a logical choice.

"Heavy mountains", for today's eastern coastal areas of chemical hazards and chemical confusion, we need not be too much entanglement and stop, China's chemical industry, the layout of globalization, the domestic regional pfer of the rapid pfer of history is speeding up, as long as we conform to the general trend, respect for the market, follow the rules, we know very clearly what stage to do, what level of what to do, what environment to do things, the trend, guidance, scientific management, market economy, this design master will fully release his potential, and ultimately configure a new China chemical industry big layout -- this is a more scientific and more optimized layout, and will certainly be a safer and healthier layout. "Both sides of the Strait can't sing, and light boats have passed.