Under The International Trade Issue, Vietnam Has Become The Biggest Beneficiary Of The Pfer Of Trade.

According to CNBC, the trade dispute between Washington and Beijing has lasted for more than a year, and economists from Nomura have found evidence that the United States and China have reduced the imports of certain commodities in order to avoid higher tariffs. The US and China are buying the same goods from other places.

Nomura Securities said that so far,

It is estimated that these new purchases account for 7.9% of their gross domestic product.

At the same time, the cost of importing each other is also increasing as the tit for tat tariff increases between China and the United States.

Because some exporters in the US and China may be willing to absorb part of the additional tariff costs, some multinational companies may choose to re produce.

But trade data show that over time, the final response may be trade diversion.

So far, the United States has imposed a 25% tariff on US $250 billion in Chinese goods, and US President Trump has threatened to impose the same high tariffs on the rest of China's imports from Trump, worth about $300 billion.

In return, Beijing has also raised tariffs on billions of dollars worth of US goods.

Nomura said that the main beneficiaries of Sino US trade war were Vietnam, Chile, Malaysia and Argentina, with the exception of Vietnam.

Vietnam and Taiwan mainly benefit from additional exports to the United States, while Chile and Malaysia benefit from exporting more goods to China.

Nomura economists found that Washington's high tariffs on Chinese goods prompted American companies to choose alternative sources.

These include electronic equipment, components of office equipment, automatic data processing machines, furniture and travel articles.

On the other hand, China's tariffs on US goods cause Chinese importers to buy soybeans, aircraft, grains and cotton from other countries.

The following are the changes in trade flows summarized by Nomura Securities:

Vietnam: mobile phone accessories, furniture, automatic data processor.

> Taiwan: typewriter accessories, office machines, mobile accessories.

Chile: copper ore, soybeans

> Malaysia: electronic integrated circuits, semiconductor devices

> Argentina: Soybean

Although studies show that the third party economies can benefit from tensions between the US and China, Nomura economists warn that the results of the survey do not depict the full picture of the trade war.

Because many other forces are at work, and the overall economic impact on most third party economies will be negative.

Because of the uncertainty of trade and the decline in demand in the US and China, these adverse effects may involve blocking investment plans of enterprises, because enterprises and consumers in both countries will eventually face higher costs due to tariffs.