The "False Start" Effect Showed That Foreign Trade Growth In May Was Better Than Expected, And Exports To The US Increased By 20%.

Since May, with the increase of Sino US trade frictions, the situation of international trade has been tightening.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs in June 10th, in May this year, China exported 1 trillion and 430 billion yuan, an increase of 7.7%, exceeding expectations, while imports 1 trillion and 160 billion yuan, down 2.5%, a sharp decline from the 10.3% growth rate last month.

The import and export is beyond the market expectation, and it also proves the aggravation of the unstable factors from the side.

Entering the June, with the arrival of the key nodes of the G20 summit, Sino US relations remain the winner of the next stage of foreign trade.

In the past 5 months, China's total foreign exports totaled 6 trillion and 500 billion yuan, an increase of 6.1%. In the view of Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, this shows that the impact of trade friction on China is limited, and the US side suffers more losses.

According to Bai Ming's analysis, China's exports to the European Union and ASEAN have maintained rapid growth, providing strong support for China's foreign trade development.

Data show that in the first 5 months, China's export growth rate to the EU and ASEAN reached 14.2% and 12.9% respectively.

On the other hand, a number of market analysts say that the export grab effect has brought positive growth to exports.

Analysts pointed out that although the US tariff rate on China's $200 billion list was increased to 25%, the implementation date had been postponed to June 15th, coupled with concerns about the potential $300 billion tax list, some commodities had been running off.

Data show that in May, China exported $37 billion 700 million to the US, an increase of 20%, the highest since the beginning of the year.

From the point of view of export products, it also showed some signs of looting.

Among them, the export of electromechanical products, high-tech products and textile and apparel were three major rebounded year-on-year, and the export improved significantly.

However, it is worth noting that in May, China's rare earth exports 3639.5 tons, a decrease of 16% compared with the same month, and the export of rare earth metals dropped 7.2% in the same period of 1-5.

Unlike the export market warming, import growth slowed down in May.

In dollar terms, imports fell by 8.5% over the same period last year, far exceeding the expected 3.5% decline and set a new low since July 2016.

In the view of Bai Ming, the weakening of imports is affected by the exchange rate. The purchasing power of the renminbi has declined after the depreciation of the RMB. On the other hand, from the total retail sales of domestic consumer goods, the domestic demand market is still weak, leading to a decline in imports.

The macro research team of Everbright Securities pointed out that the import figures were not as good as expected, partly due to the high base value and the depreciation of the RMB, but it may also reflect that the impact of the pfer of orders and industrial chains has begun to appear under the background of high tariffs.

On the whole, the total value of imports and exports in May was 2 trillion and 590 billion yuan, an increase of 2.9%.

The trade surplus was 279 billion 120 million yuan, an expansion of 89.8%.

Huatai macro Li Chao team reminds us that if our domestic demand is not strong, thus restricting import growth and falling faster than export growth, then it may lead to a "slump" surplus.

For the future trend of foreign trade, market watchers believe that we need to pay close attention to the June 17th US $300 billion merchandise listings and the G20 summit held in Japan on June 28th -29.

Bai Ming said that Sino US trade friction is still the biggest uncertainty.