Both Ends Of Supply And Demand Are Not Good, PTA Diving Dive Short Term Empty

In July 22nd, the PTA main contract dived in the afternoon, reporting 5596 yuan / ton, refreshing a month low.

Who is blowing the gun, "director" the limit drama?

Due to the relatively centralized capacity of PTA and the difference from the perfectly competitive market, price changes not only follow the market rules completely, among which the leading enterprises have certain bargaining power.

Pre market circulation stock is still low, although the cost of PX price falls sharply under the support of fundamentals, but the spot price is strong, so the processing price difference has greatly enlarged. At the same time, with the gradual weakening of the terminal textile and clothing market and the start of the fall, polyester production and marketing are hindered by the accumulation of inventory. The processing profit of all links in the whole industry chain has been upside down once, and only PTA is the champion.

The recent rise and fall of prices has also been rumored in the market that the restart of the PTA device in a certain factory has been postponed to August, the reduction of a large factory and the downstream contract, the problems of PX installations in a factory, and so on, which has had a great impact on the PTA futures market. However, Xiaobian feels that the above information has not had a substantial impact on the PTA spot market. We believe that spot prices can maintain a high level, which stems from the factory price matching. According to the inventory data, the supply of PTA is relatively stable, and there is no obvious sink. However, the cash flow in the spot market does exist.

According to some traders, at present, the mainstream brands are scarce, and some of them are not available. Only the supply of non mainstream brands can be provided. At the same time, downstream polyester factories also said: it is difficult to receive the supply of mainstream brands in the market. At present, the mainstream brands are basically in the hands of mainstream factories, so the PTA factory still holds the initiative under the pattern of selling at a premium.

But at the same time, polyester factories are not able to bear it. The biggest change in recent years is polyester. At present, the profit has been losing two days, and the stock has been higher than the previous level (and this year the trend is rising. Last year it is falling). From the data, we can draw a conclusion that the price of polyesters is very bad at present, so the price of the ester is very difficult to rise. However, the price of raw materials is still strong, which has led to its passive loss. In addition, the recent operation rate has dropped to 88.6% (from a maintenance plan, there is a further downward trend). If we use the current operating rate to calculate, PTA has already started accumulating inventory this month, plus its own negative effects (loss and accumulated inventory).

The demand side is currently in the off-season of weaving industry. At present, downstream polyester is boosting demand through the way of price reduction, but the effect is not as good as expected. Short term polyester will continue to accumulate, but the library will slow down or slow down.

Weaving from the recent data, inventory basically unchanged, but the operating rate decreased by 4%, so weaving is faced with the same problem as polyester (loss, inventory), but one thing can be understood as positive, that is, this week's raw material inventory dropped to 13 days, which means that part of the stock of polyester is expected to be converted in the future, according to the current raw material inventory, weaving replenishment may take 10 days.

The good demand may need to wait for polyester prices to drop to a low point. Polyester stocks are down to a low point again, as well as downstream terminal busy season.

At the same time, from the 22 day futures market, the general market downturn is also an important reason for the PTA to drop. Closing, the domestic market closed most of the green, PTA closed down, refresh nearly a month low; the basic metal, black series of the top decline, Shanghai nickel fell more than 3%, silicon iron fell more than 2%, iron ore, Shanghai zinc, Shanghai lead, manganese silicon, coke fell more than 1%.

In summary, at present, both ends of PTA supply and demand do not have a good profit, and the recent cost is expected to have PX new production capacity, so the short-term price drop space in PTA is still still in, but the short term price for the short term price in the rear of PTA is limited.

XinDa futures analysts believe that the current PTA downstream profit has been compressed, active decline, demand side support is weak, Fuhua device will restart after the end of the supply and demand tend to be relaxed. In the short term, as the downstream profits are compressed to zero, polyester load reduction or increase is short term. From a medium to long term perspective, PTA supply and demand is expected to remain tight before the new Feng Ming new plant is put into operation.

And the high price of the pre - market is a big doubt. On the one hand, under the stimulation of high profits, the PTA repair process is slow. On the other hand, there is no obvious improvement in the terminal market, and the inventory of grey fabric is still up to 40 days. So there is a lack of terminal demand driven, and the price of raw materials alone is rising and the market price is difficult to sustain. We should pay close attention to the overhaul of PTA units, polyester production reduction and the start of terminal orders. (source: long Zhong information, polyester Jincheng Road)