PTA Fundamentals Bad Market Will Continue To Weaken

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic PTA spot market began to rise sharply from June 15th to July 2nd, and the period rose by 25.19%. Subsequently, all the way down, as of July 25th, the spot market average price of 5818 yuan / ton, or 16.77% (compared to July 2nd), down 6.65% over the same period. The futures market continued to maintain a downward trend for two consecutive days this week. As of the 25 th, the main futures (1909) closed at 5334 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day, the settlement price fell 72 yuan / ton, or 1.33%. In terms of the price of the factory, Hengli Petrochemical announced the implementation of the PTA settlement price of 6670 yuan / ton in July. In August, the PTA listing price was tentatively set at 6700 yuan / ton. Yisheng Petrochemical announced that the July PTA settlement price would be 6350 yuan / ton.

Since March, the profit margins of PTA have increased. Most of the time, profits are more than 1000 yuan or even 1500 yuan, and the whole industry chain is in a high profit position, leading to a high PTA operating rate. The 325 thousand ton plant of Luohua Petrochemical has been restarted recently, and the PTA operation rate has been raised to about 90%. Fuhua chemical industry and trade 4 million 500 thousand tons plant plans to restart this weekend, Ningbo Yisheng 650 thousand tons plant plan to restart at the end of the month, it is estimated that the PTA will be raised to 99% near that. In addition, the Hengli 2 million 200 thousand ton plan will be overhauled for 15 days. Taiwan Ya Dong 1 million 500 thousand tons plan from September 13th onwards for 17-20 days. New Feng Ming 2 million 200 thousand tons PTA new plant has been put into operation in 8-9 months, and this year, there are 2 million 500 thousand tons of Hengli 4 line. The approximate rate will be put into operation by the end of this year.

In the raw material market, the price of PX has been declining since March. As of July 25th, the domestic average price was 7000 yuan / ton, down 22.22% compared with March 1st, down 8.05% from the same period last year.

Judging from the price of the external market, as of July 24th, the closing price of the Asian PX market was 818 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 838 US dollars / ton CFR China. More than 5 of the domestic imports are needed, and the lower price of the external market has a negative effect on the price of the domestic PX market.

Summary of overhaul of PX devices at home and abroad

On the device side, near the end of the month, the pre maintenance PX device has a restart plan, Sinochem Petrochemical 800 thousand tons PX new device, heard that in recent days has produced 600 thousand tons of finished products, Brunei Heng Yi 1 million 500 thousand tons of PX device into the joint commissioning phase, Hainan refinery 2#100 million tons / year of new PX device plan to start production in September.

Downstream polyester is still in the production cycle, starting load from 90% in early July to about 7 at the end of the month, and the 7 to August high temperature season is the traditional low season of weaving, weaving and reducing the negative rate of increase. Under the sharp decline of raw materials, polyester factory price promotions, according to the monitoring of business agencies, polyester FDY fell significantly, compared with July 2nd, the decline was 12.61%. At present, the mainstream polyester factory, polyester POY (150D/48F) in 7800-8150 yuan / ton, polyester FDY (150D/96F) in 7800-8200 yuan / ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low bomb) in 9150-9500 yuan / ton. The inventory of terminal grey cloth to about 41-42 days, the uncertainty of Sino US trade friction and the double profit of the traditional demand in the terminal textile market in the off-season in August led to a cautious attitude in the textile market, and the load of terminal looms will continue to decline, forcing polyester factories to reduce production.

Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that in the short term, the mainstream suppliers will have loose prices at the end of the month, and spot liquidity will gradually become more relaxed. The PTA device will be restarted, while downstream polyester will still have a negative desire to lower the supply and demand. Upstream and downstream contradictions will further intensify, and PTA will continue to weaken. In the future market, we still need to pay attention to the changes of PX and PTA devices, the performance of "golden nine silver ten" in the traditional peak season, and the impact of the macro environment on the textile market policy.