Housing Prices No Longer "Willfully Buy" The Third Quarter Of The Land Market Cooling

The expected land market is cooling down.

Recently, the main urban land price monitoring report of the third quarter of 2019 released by the dynamic monitoring group of urban land price of China Land Survey and Planning Institute showed that the overall land price level in the third quarter slowed down compared with the year-on-year growth rate. Among them, the growth rate of residential land prices slowed down for the six consecutive quarter.

In the first half of this year, the national land market once appeared "little spring". Since April, the hot spot and second tier cities have been continuously warming up. The total amount of land monthly turnover is over 300 billion, and the premium rate is also maintained at around 20%.

However, the policy of tightening trust and overseas financing continued to increase the financing cost and cash flow pressure of the housing enterprises, and the land market in the whole country changed the trend of the two quarter.

Another background is the July 30th meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), emphasizing that the house is used to live, not to be used for frying, to implement the long-term management mechanism of real estate, and not to regard real estate as a means to stimulate the economy in the short term.

Zhang Dawei, principal analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, believes that the land market is just like the property market, and it is still allowed to have a small spring rather than summer.

Supply, transaction and premium rates are all cooling down.

The traditional "golden nine silver ten" hot sales situation did not appear, the land market is also down.

According to the statistical data of the middle finger Research Institute, in the first three quarters of this year, 20936 cities in 300 cities of the country launched a total of 20936, representing an increase of only 0.1%, and the land area of 880 million 680 thousand square meters was reduced by 1% compared to the same period last year.

In terms of turnover, 17850 land transactions were completed in 1-9 months, a decrease of 2% compared with the same period last year, and the total area reached 740 million 340 thousand square meters, representing a decrease of 2% over the same period last year.

In the months of September, the 9 month showed a downward trend compared with August. According to data from Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, a total of 673 land transactions were completed in September, compared with 1124 total land transactions in August, a decrease of 40%. Among them, more than 1 billion of the total 58, but 43% of the plots at the bottom price, the average premium rate is only 5%, only 21 plots premium rate exceeded 10%.

But judging from the performance of key cities, there is a phenomenon of differentiation.

Central Plains real estate data show that in the first three quarters, the total number of land sold in the 50 cities of the whole country reached 3 trillion and 140 billion, creating a record of the same period, an increase of 18.1% over the same period, and 9 hundred billion selling cities.

Among them, land leasing has increased 35 cities in the same period, but the land premium rate is increasing by only 27 cities.

In the first three quarters of the year, land sales in Hangzhou were the highest, reaching 228 billion 900 million, but 1.6% lower than the same period last year. The premium rate of land was 16.65%, down 42% from the same period last year.

In the four tier cities, 1-9 months of land transfer fees were positive growth, of which Shenzhen's year-on-year increase was the largest, reaching 155%, while Shanghai only slightly increased by 1.43%. In terms of premium rate, Shanghai and Shenzhen were positive growth, Beijing decreased by 27.36%, Guangzhou decreased by 33.57%.

Since October, the trend of land cooling has become increasingly evident. According to statistics of Zhongyuan Real estate, 31 of the 50 hot spots in the first week before were traded at the bottom price, accounting for up to 62%, which has set a record in recent years.

According to the performance of Housing enterprises, the data of Kerri show that in July, 6 hundred strong housing enterprises took the pace of slowing down. In August, more than 3 hundred Housing enterprises did not take the lead. In September, 100 new housing enterprises increased their value by about 700 billion yuan, down 36% from 1 trillion and 100 billion yuan in August. Meanwhile, the premium rate continued to decline.

According to the echelon, the sales of TOP10 Housing enterprises rose by only 1%, keeping the rational state, while the 11 to 30 strong housing enterprises took 0.45 of the sales, which was the most active echelon of the 50 strong housing enterprises, mainly in the demand of increasing scale, such as the sales of the US and Zhongliang 1-8 months were over 0.7, 50 to 100 strong housing enterprises took a more active attitude in the month of September, and the desire for survival was strong.

Housing prices are tight.

At this year's mid-term performance conference, many developers passed signals that would be carefully taken.

Sun Hongbin, chairman of China's board of directors, said that in terms of land use, the company basically had no targets in the second half of the year, unless it was particularly good.

Zhang Xu, chief operating officer of Vanke, responded that it was based on how much money he collected and how much he could take back. But from the actual performance, Vanke's total rights and interests in August were 15 billion 41 million yuan, while in September it was only 5 billion 28 million yuan, and the ratio fell sharply by 66.7%.

Housing prices are no longer willful "buy buy buy", one of the most direct reason is tightened financing.

In July 12th, the national development and Reform Commission issued a circular to strengthen the restrictions on overseas bonds issued by housing enterprises. The new financing can only be used to replace long-term overseas debts due to maturity within one year. At the same time, it is necessary to register and register the scale and duration of debts. In addition, the central bank and the Banking Regulatory Commission have increased supervision over real estate financing and related credit products, and strictly prohibited all kinds of funds such as consumer loans, bank financing and trusts to enter the real estate field illegally.

Sun Hongbin admitted in the interim results meeting that the strict control of real estate has made certain restrictions on issuing bonds, trusts and development loans, which is the regulation from the financing side.

However, high quality land in high quality cities has never been short of developers competing for it, and local governments have made some adjustments in pushing the land.

Shenzhen Qianhai GUI Wan originally planned to sell two plots in October 22nd, one for commercial land and one for comprehensive land. But in October 18th, the Shenzhen Land Trading Center announced that the termination of the transfer procedures, caused the industry in an uproar.

Li Yujia, principal investigator of Guangdong housing policy research center, analyzed the twenty-first Century economic report reporter. In the 70 city housing price data released by the National Bureau of statistics, Shenzhen's new house and second-hand housing ring rose to the top ten in the country, especially the new house was the first time to enter the top ten in the second half of 2016. The termination of land sale in Qianhai did not disclose the specific reasons, but a more likely guess is that if the floor price and premium rate are relatively high, it may cause changes in the market expectations, resulting in a rise in the linkage between land prices and housing prices, which is inappropriate for market regulation.

Zhang Dawei also pointed out that, on the whole, real estate enterprises rely on trust and other financing to enter the real estate market rapidly and cause the short-term warming of land market, which is the main reason for tightening policy. At the end of the year, housing prices tightened, and the premium rate of hot cities began to decline significantly. The possibility of a marked increase in the subsequent land market flow was not ruled out.

For the forecast of the future market, the above third major national cities' land price monitoring report in the 2019 quarter pointed out that the domestic macroeconomic policy will further fall into the future, the national economy will remain stable overall, and the real estate market will continue to be regulated. It is expected that the urban land price will remain at a low growth rate as a whole, and the residential land market in hot cities will remain stable.