Institutional Reentry "2020 Forecast" Competition Season To Capture The "New Asset Shortage Opportunities" Consensus

Standing in front of the 3000 point integer, there are more and more agencies are forecasting the economic and market performance next year.

According to the twenty-first Century economic report reporter statistics, CITIC, CICC, merchants, Xingye, Anxin, Pacific, Huachang, new era, link news and many other brokerages have judged the investment trend in 2020 through strategic reports or columns.

Reporters found that the current low interest rate and the downward pressure on the economy brought about the "shortage of assets" has become the focus of concern of many institutions, some agencies believe that this will give A shares as a representative of the rights and interests of assets to bring greater allocation value.

But there are also buyer's institutions that need to be cautious in assessing external risk factors such as trade frictions and the intensity and space of counter cyclical regulation, and whether the current situation of liquidity trap can be reversed in the short and medium term also needs further observation.

Optimistic expectations are in the majority.

In twenty-first Century, the business reporter found that most sellers still expressed optimism about the economic situation and market in 2020.

Xie Yaxuan, head of macroeconomic research and chief macroeconomic analyst of China Merchants Securities, believes that the overall economic trend in 2020 will be "low before and after steady". In its view, the core focus of macroeconomic trends lies in the negative impact of Sino US trade frictions and the positive impact of domestic economic dynamism and anti cyclical adjustment policy. The negative impact of trade friction is weakening. On the contrary, steady growth is expected to further improve.

In the first half of this year, the improvement of infrastructure investment and real estate investment will temporarily alleviate the downward pressure on the larger economy. Once the downward pressure on the economy slows down, the anti cyclical adjustment of investment will probably decline. Xie Yaxuan said, "but the contribution of consumption to the economy will gradually increase in the second half of the year, so it is expected that economic growth will be relatively stable after the rebound in the first half."

However, there are still buyers who are worried about potential stagflation caused by a series of factors such as pork prices.

"The key depends on the degree of downward pressure on the economy to what extent, since last year, this round of leverage is still more resolute." "If the pressure is too high, some measures for steady growth are expected to further increase, and bring investment opportunities in infrastructure and other fields. But what we need to pay attention to is the potential threat of stagflation because stagflation is very important for the recovery of fundamental recovery," said a head of a private equity agency in Beijing.

Such worries are not unreasonable. For example, some agencies pointed out in 2020 that the price of pork was far from the inflection point of the callback.

"Food prices are easily disturbed by the supply side, the growth cycle of vegetables and fruits is relatively short, and supply shocks generally do not last too long, but pork is different. The African swine fever virus is expected to survive for a long time. From the breeding cycle to the growth period of fat pigs, optimism is expected to take the reality of high pig prices in two or three years." New era Securities pointed out.

However, some agencies believe that the negative emotions such as "stagflation" will form a buying opportunity for the market.

"In 2020, the market is the center of the gradual shock and uplift of the market. In the process, it may cause short-term shocks to the market due to the" stagflation "concerns, economic stall, and external environment. Instead, it provides investors with more core buying opportunities. Societe Generale Securities strategy team pointed out.

"New asset shortage"

A new opportunity for equity asset opportunities may be related to an investment phenomenon, that is, the recurrence of "asset shortage".

In twenty-first Century, the economic news reporter noted that "asset shortage" is becoming a frequent term of many sellers' strategic reports in 2020.

For example, Zhang Yidong, chief global strategist of Xingye securities, pointed out in the 2020 investment strategy report of China's equity assets that the global "asset shortage" phenomenon in the coming year will have an impact on asset allocation.

"Overseas asset shortage" may become more obvious in 2020, and global allocation of capital is more difficult. Compared to the increasingly oversold currencies, the cost of assets is high and can bring sustained cash flow of scarce security assets. Zhang Yidong pointed out.

Zhang Xia, chief analyst of China Merchants Securities strategy, also said that there might be a liquidity shortage in 2020 and a "shortage of assets" under the combination of new social and financial downturn.

In fact, when the A shares fell sharply in 2015, the domestic investment market also once faced the problem of asset shortage.

"There are certain differences between the two asset shortages. In 2016, the shortage of assets took place in the stage of leverage plus, which was more reflected in the lower interest rates of bank funds, such as shadow banking and allocation of funds, and then the funds shifted to real estate and other fields." A macroeconomic analyst at a medium-sized brokerage firm in Beijing pointed out, "but this time, the shortage of assets is essentially limited by real estate. At the same time, the continuous sinking of the risk side of the capital side leads to the emergence of the interest rate debt."

In Zhang Yidong's view, the maintenance of asset shortage trend and the continuous reform and opening up in China will further bring opportunities to domestic equity assets.

"China will continue to push ahead with reform and opening up, China's economy will develop towards high quality, and endogenous growth momentum will create more unique opportunities. The RMB to us dollar exchange rate will be stronger in 2020 than in 2019, which is conducive to enhancing the attractiveness of China's equity assets." Zhang Yidong pointed out.

"In the first half of 2020, due to greater inflation pressure and monetary policy constraints, the market was dominated by structural market. "Zhang Xia also said that" in the second half of this year, with the downward pressure on the economy, inflation will fall, the space of monetary policy will be opened, and the market will continue to rise in a more relaxed environment and under the "asset shortage". The annual trend is expected to be similar to the anti L model.

Popular technology stocks

Under the background of optimistic expectations and asset shortage, more sellers will invest in the technology industry.

CITIC Securities put forward in 2020 investment strategy that the technology sector will enter the 2-3 year's upward cycle, and pointed out that it can focus on 5G, cloud computing and self-regulation.

"MSCI expansion brings A incremental capital, and the technology sector with global comparability and excellent growth is worth paying attention to. The state-owned capital and industrial capital represented by large scale integrated circuit will further help technology companies." CITIC Securities said it was optimistic about the investment opportunities of domestic technology industry driven by 5G and cloud computing, and suggested that it should focus on consumer electronics, telecommunications equipment, telecom operators, software &SaaS, IT hardware equipment, IDC and other high prosperity sectors.

China Merchants Securities also drew the conclusion of "promising technology stocks" based on the reality of asset shortage.

"Next year, interest rates are expected to further downward, and social integration may remain low. In this environment, liquidity driven brokerages, steady growth in real estate construction and counter cyclical medicine are expected to perform well." Zhang Xia said, "from the perspective of technology cycle and policy cycle, the market style of next year will probably return to a balanced or partial market style, which will superimpose new technological progress cycles, and M & A is expected to be active again, and the TMT sector is expected to perform better."

Guoxin Securities also pointed out that the domestic technology oriented high growth companies with clear alternative direction are expected to become the main investment line worthy of attention.

"Interest rate downside is better for companies with high growth and overvalued value than those with low growth undervalued companies." Guoxin Securities said.

In the specific technology industry, 5G has become a concern.

For example, Zhang Xia believes that the strongest line in 2020 still comes from the new technology cycle brought by 5G.

"5G mobile phone replacement cycle, VRAR brings incremental consumption, cloud games, cloud computing, cloud mobile concept will continue to import, and data traffic will also increase with the innovation of communications technology, HUAWEI will dominate the global consumer electronics, and the domestic replacement rate of the 5G industry chain will also greatly improve." Zhang Xia said, "the era of Internet of things will also be realized in the era of 5G, and with the increase of connectivity, the ceiling of network security will also greatly improve. Some of these areas may soon see the performance of the performance."