By The End Of The Year, The PTA And Ethylene Glycol Plant Is Ready To Put Into Operation.

As the upstream of polyester industry chain, the fluctuation of crude oil has a cost fluctuation effect on the industrial chain.

In November 29th, the international situation of crude oil dropped sharply due to the rising temperature in Iraq and the new high impact of US crude oil production. On the same day, the New York futures exchange's West Texas light oil futures clearing price in January 2020 was 55.17 US dollars per barrel, down 2.94 US dollars from the previous trading day, or 5.1%.

Affected by the negative impact of crude oil, PTA, MEG futures on the 29 night, the painting style abrupt change, with a closing down.

Since November, polyester raw materials have not performed well. Futures market performance is poor, and prices are also "no force".

Recently, bargain hunting has become common. How low is this "low"?

PTA price exceeds 3 years low

Profit loss exceeds 1800 yuan / ton

PTA, a "polyester big man" for the industry chain, has been in trouble this year. Up to now, the price of PTA's internal market is around 4775 yuan / ton, the lowest in 3 years. The decline in prices has also resulted in shrinking profits. The highest profit in the PTA period has reached 1787 yuan / ton, but at present PTA is in a loss state, and the profit difference is more than 1800 yuan / ton.

Ethylene glycol inventory low

But the price of the internal market is the lowest in 4 years.

This year, glycol futures face has been weak, slightly improved in the second half of the year, but it has come back to decline in the near future. The price of the internal market is decreasing as the futures market goes down. As of now, the price of ethylene glycol is near 4712 yuan / ton. As can be seen from the chart, the price of the internal market is approaching the lowest level in the year, and at the same time, it is also in the low price for the same period in the past four years.

Then, in the month remaining in 2019, is there any chance of "turning over" polyester raw materials?

At the end of the year, 3 million 700 thousand tons of PTA plant is planned to go into operation, and the supply side will expand again.

With the continuous expansion of PTA production capacity, PTA's "hegemony" position on polyester industry chain has begun to change. At present, the Helen Petrochemical 2 million 400 thousand ton PTA plant in December has a maintenance plan in turn, and plans to stop for 15 days. Although there is a device overhaul, it will only have an impact on the supply side in the short term. And by the end of December, Hengli Petrochemical's 2 million 500 thousand ton PTA plant and Zhongtai chemical 1 million 200 thousand ton PTA plant are planned to be put into operation. Whether from the supply side or the psychological level, the PTA market will be suppressed.

At the same time, as Hengli refinery and other large private refinery giants have been put into operation, the PX industry pattern has undergone great changes. PX has become the largest expansion of chemical products in the coming years. The supply of PX is increasing and the price is decreasing. At present, the profit has been lost to 147 US dollars / ton, and the price of PTA is difficult to rise when the cost side collapses.

Glycol stock is still in the low position in the new year, but the new plant is still expected to be put into operation by the end of the year.

Starting from June, ethylene glycol inventory has entered a downward channel. At present, the ethylene glycol terminal inventory is about 425 thousand tons, close to the lowest level since 2017.

At the same time, from the supply side, ethylene glycol overhaul capacity in December involved 1 million 670 thousand tons. At the end of the year, the commissioning of the new plant has been delayed. The supply side is tight, inventory remains low, and the basic structure is good. In the short term, the price of ethylene glycol will remain stable.

But in the long run, there is little chance of a big turnaround. At present, it has entered the December, according to plan, there will be 1 million 300 thousand tons of ethylene glycol plant put into operation. Although it has been delayed, there will still be 3 million 900 thousand tons of ethylene glycol installation before the end of next year, and the supply side will expand again. The tight supply of glycol will change, and the price of ethylene glycol will not rise if supply and demand are loose.

Whether PTA or glycol, in addition to the supply side, downstream demand is also one of the important factors that determine its "life and death".

Polyester filament as the downstream of polyester industry chain has been in a weak state this year. The polyester filament factory, which once concentrated on the power of words, has been deepening this year because of the hidden danger of overcapacity, and gradually began to accumulate inventory. Under the situation of insufficient downstream demand, the stock of polyester filament has reached a high level since 2014.

Stocks are constantly increasing and prices are falling. Take polyester filament FDY 50D/24F as an example, at present, the price has dropped to the lowest level in 3 years. With the beginning of the end of the beginning of the weaving end, the orders are coming to an end and financial pressure, the demand for raw polyester filament is not strong. The demand for PTA and glycol also decreased.

To sum up, Xiaobian thinks that short term polyester material wants to turn over, it is difficult!

This year, the chance of PTA and ethylene glycol turning around is not big, but maybe for polyester raw materials, it is no longer important to turn over and turn over. It is a good thing to reduce inventory and withdraw funds.