2019 Land Market Inventory: Premium Rate To 13.5% Housing Prices More Rational?

The land market, which is tightened up by financing, is becoming increasingly dull.

According to the data of Shanghai Yi Ju Research Institute, as of the end of November 2019, the total land area of the 300 cities in China was 2 billion 300 million square meters, which was 3.7% lower than that in the same period in 2018. Although the total supply of 300 cities doubled in November, the end of the year was the peak season for land transactions. However, considering the difference between the volume of the previous November and the 430 million square meters of last year, the agency expects that the scale of land transactions this year will probably be lower than that of last year.

Moreover, in the first 300 years of November this year, the premium rate of residential land in the 13.5% cities was 13.5%, down from 15.8% in 2018.

Since May, the central bank, the Banking Regulatory Commission and other departments have issued policies in succession, and the financing channels such as trust and US dollar debt have been greatly restricted. In the case of tight financing channels, the housing companies take the land strategy seems to be adjusting.

But it is worth noting that compared with last year, the land floor price this year is 2396 yuan / square meter, up 14%. At the same time, some large housing enterprises in the M & a market, a large number of replenishment stocks, does not seem to care about the pressure of the capital chain.

Then, compared with previous years, is housing prices really cautious this year?

Land base price quietly increased

If the land market is divided into two stages this year, the performance in the first half and the second half of the year is obviously different.

According to the statistics of Shanghai Yi Ju Research Institute, land transactions in the 300 cities were relatively strong in the first half of the year, the monthly premium rate remained above 10%, and the premium rate in April was even more than 20%. Except for January, the rap rate is below 10%.

Since July, the land market has dropped significantly, the monthly premium rate has dropped to below 10%, and the rap rate has risen to more than 10%.

The reason lies in the introduction of a series of regulatory policies. Since May, the central bank, the Banking Regulatory Commission and other departments have tightened the financing channels for housing enterprises. In July 31st, the meeting of the Central Political Bureau held that "the real estate will not be used as a short-term stimulus to the economy". The expectation of stimulating real estate will be broken during the economic downturn.

The local government has the rhythm of "before loosening and tight behind", and there will often be some popular plots at the end of the year. For example, in November this year, the total area of land supply reached the highest level in nearly three years. "The reason is mainly due to the near end of the year, many cities that have not completed the land supply plan have accelerated the pace of land supply, resulting in the explosive growth of supply scale."

Under the stimulation of supply, the price of land transaction has also increased.

In November of this year, the 300 city land transaction price was 2396 yuan / square meter, up 13.7% compared with the same period last year. This level is also the highest point in many years. The above agencies believe that the apparent rise in land prices is partly due to a significant increase in the scale of transactions in the first 11 months of the second tier cities compared with the same period last year. The proportion increased by 3 percentage points. On the other hand, due to the low market heat in the year, most cities increased the supply of high-quality plots. For example, there were many homestead prices in Beijing this year, and Shenzhen's homestead supply increased significantly compared with the same period last year, which further pushed up the average transaction price this year.

A large housing company in Beijing told the twenty-first Century economic report that another reason for the rise in land prices is that many places have quietly increased the premium of land leasing. Resulting in the overall premium rate is relatively low, the average price of land transactions still hit a new high.

For next year's land market trend, Shanghai Yi Ju Research Institute believes that in December 2019, the central economic work conference stressed once again that it is necessary to continue to insist on housing and housing, and adhere to "stable prices, stable prices and stable expectations", setting the operational keynote for the real estate market in 2020. At the end of the year, the CIRC at the end of the year said that it is necessary to improve the statistics and monitoring system of real estate financing and crack down on irregularities. The financing environment of Housing enterprises is expected to be tightened. "Tight money" is bound to lead to more cautious housing prices in the land, next year's land market heat rate will continue to run low.

Small housing enterprises have a slim chance.

In the face of the new financing policy, the adjustment of housing prices is also more obvious. Shanghai Yi Ju Research Institute will lead the housing enterprises to take the rhythm into four stages: 1-2 month overall performance is more dull; 3-5 month positive storage; the two quarter of the second half of the year returned to reason; fourth quarter leading housing prices brake.

Among them, Hengda, Biguiyuan, Vanke and other -11 month sales in October than the ten lowest, less than 0.2, and Longhu, Huarun and other relatively active housing prices have also slowed down investment in the fourth quarter. Only state-owned enterprises are relatively active.

Shanghai Yi Ju Research Institute pointed out that in 2019 1-11, the number of new housing enterprises increased by 8 trillion and 400 billion, representing a 5% decrease compared with the same period in 2018, compared with the peak in 2017, a decline of more than 20%.

58 Anju Real Estate Research Institute pointed out that this aspect is affected by the difficulty of financing for housing enterprises, and on the other hand, the housing companies are slowing down in the cities below three or four lines to avoid risks. Overall, housing prices in the land market has been obviously rational, not only take cautious, while the "land king" also significantly reduced.

But the differentiation of housing prices has not changed. According to statistics, in November of this year, all the new soil storage TOP20 came from the sale of TOP20, and its ranking is highly consistent. As the mainstay of the industry, the total value of sales of TOP20 Housing enterprises is close to 5 trillion and 400 billion yuan, which is 1.6 times of the remaining 80 enterprises of 100 housing enterprises. Among them, the TOP10 Housing enterprises increased the value of new products to 100% to 43%.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, told reporters on twenty-first Century economic report that apart from taking the place, the advantages of large housing companies in financing were equally obvious. As the market continues to descend, these advantages will become more prominent, thus making the division of the industry more and more serious.

At the same time, more and more enterprises acquire land reserves through mergers and acquisitions, which helps to rapidly expand inventories, and the cost is relatively low.

However, even within the benchmarking enterprises, the quality of soil reserves determines the future development of Housing enterprises.

Chuan Cai securities divided the quality of soil reserve into two dimensions: "quality" and "quantity". "Quality" is mainly reflected by the layout of soil storage, and the quantity is mainly embodied by the stock of soil storage. The agency pointed out that under the premise of stabilizing the second tier property market and weakening the three or four tier property market and the coordinated development of the metropolitan area, the housing enterprises of the second tier cities and the core metropolitan area will have greater opportunities for development.