The Recovery Rate Of Enterprises Is Not High, And The Spot Market Of Cotton Needs To Be Activated.

Affected by the outbreak of new crown pneumonia, some cotton enterprises in Hengshui city of Hebei province have resumed work recently, but the overall recovery rate is not high. Although the price of Zheng cotton futures market has risen sharply, the spot purchase and sale is still in a stagnant situation, and the cotton market needs to be activated.


Since February 4th, the newly diagnosed cases of new crown pneumonia in Hubei have been declining continuously except for the province of Hengshui. As of 14 February 17th, 8 cases of confirmed cases have been reported in the city. 4 cases have been successfully cured and zero deaths. Up to now, there have been no new suspected cases and new confirmed cases for 9 consecutive days. Although the local epidemic prevention and control situation is bright, the overall prevention and control work is still not relaxed, and residents living quarters, natural villages and so on are still in strict closed management. From 17 to 2020, the commencement date of the enterprises which had been postponed after the Spring Festival came quietly, but most of the cotton enterprises still did not return to work normally, while a small number of workers involved in the cotton enterprises except for administrative, financial, personnel and other key positions went to work.


1, no seed cotton acquisition, processing behavior. 17, under the strict local management of residential area (Village) policy, local residents need to enter and leave with their certificates of work, certificates issued by the reopening units, and "no fever, no contact, no dealings, no concealment" undertaking. No entry of foreign personnel and vehicles is strictly prohibited. Residents' daily activities are greatly reduced, so there is no cotton trader's entry and exit activities in society. Cotton purchasing and processing enterprises in villages (towns) do not naturally have seed cotton purchasing and processing behavior.


2, cotton only wired offer no actual transaction. Constrained by the low rate of resumption of enterprises and the failure of the resumed enterprises to start normal work, the current behavior of local cotton enterprises and cotton traders is limited to online quotations, and online quotations are closely related to the current price of the zhengmian futures market and the trend of the state's import and export prices. 17, the Australian wildfire floods, African countries and Asian cotton producing countries in India and Pakistan suffered 70 years of locusts, which are likely to affect the next year's global cotton production, the upcoming outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in China and the continuous introduction of policies to stimulate the recovery of the economy, and to believe that there are many factors that affect its credibility, Zheng Mian. The price of cotton futures in the futures market has skyrocketed, and the contract price increase in all months has reached a total of 500 points, with CF2005, 2007, 2009 and 2011 contracts closed at the price limit. Encouraged by this, 17 local cotton enterprises and cotton merchants have raised their online quotations, of which spot sales offer real estate white cotton 3128B2 selling price of 13400 yuan / ton (delivery price, public settlement, with the same ticket), white cotton 4128B2 offer 12800 yuan / ton, light cotton 1228B2 offer 12900 yuan / ton, light cotton 2227B2 offer 12600 yuan / ton, Xinjiang cotton float 10 on the basis of real estate cotton quotation 0~200 yuan / ton. The above online quotations rose 100 yuan / ton compared with the 14 day (last Friday). In order to keep pace with the sharp rise in the price of futures market, individual cotton enterprises and cotton traders said that 18 and 19 days will raise the spot sale quotas again. But the local and surrounding areas of small and medium-sized textile enterprises to resume the rate of not more than 20%, coupled with cotton logistics activities are limited, cotton enterprises and Cotton Traders' quotation behavior can only be too high and no real spot purchase and transaction, they can only hope that in March the epidemic situation is more clear and the textile enterprises really run and run to buy a large number of textile raw materials inventory.


3, cotton warehouse is limited to railway storage. 17, I learned that a local large cotton professional storage enterprise has been receiving new railway cotton warehouses (futures forecast warehouse receipts, national cotton trading market supervision and commodity cotton) railway warehousing since the Spring Festival. Only last week (February 8th to 14), it received 3000 tons of Xinjiang cotton. So far, 2019/20 cotton has accumulated more than 50 thousand tons of cotton stocks annually, of course. All the epidemic prevention and control measures in the warehouse are in place. As described above, the warehouse is limited to railway transportation, and warehousing accounts for 95% of the total warehouse business. As for the two other cotton warehouses in the area, due to the lack of special railway lines and road logistics and transportation restrictions, although there has been a resumption of work, there is a very small number of warehousing and warehousing operations.