A Record Low! China'S Shipping Boom Index Fell To 62.95 In The First Quarter.

In March 31, 2020, the Shanghai International Shipping Research Center issued the China Shipping boom report in the first quarter of 2020. The report shows that China's shipping industry has suffered serious setbacks due to the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. China's shipping prosperity index has dropped to 62.95 points and has entered a relatively sluggish interval. China's shipping confidence index is only 39.05 points, and has fallen to a severe recession. China's shipping prosperity index and confidence index have reached a new low, and China's shipping industry has entered a low ebb.

chart One China's shipping prosperity index and confidence index chart

One The boom of shipping enterprises has declined sharply.

Two thousand and twenty In the first quarter of 2003, the prosperity index of shipping enterprises was Sixty-three point five one Point, down from last quarter. Forty-nine point seven nine The confidence index of shipping enterprises is Thirty-two point eight five Point, down sharply compared with the previous quarter. slip Seventy-three point two four Point to a heavy recession The overall operation of shipping enterprises deteriorated. 。 Judging from various operating indicators , The transport capacity of enterprises has been greatly reduced, the utilization rate of the shipping space has been greatly reduced, the freight revenue has been greatly reduced, and the operating cost has continued to rise, leading to a sharp decline in corporate profits. The loan liabilities of enterprises have increased, and the demand for labor has decreased.

chart Two Trend chart of prosperity index and confidence index for shipping enterprises

The boom of dry bulk shipping companies continued to decline. Two thousand and twenty The first quarter of the year, dry bulk transport enterprises prosperity index is Fifty-six point six seven Point, down from last quarter. Thirty-eight point nine seven From a weak recession to a relatively sluggish interval, the confidence index of dry bulk shipping enterprises is Twenty-one point three three Point, a sharp decline compared with the previous quarter. Sixty-three point eight five Point, enter the heavier recession area. The overall operation of dry bulk shipping enterprises is not good enough, and entrepreneurs' confidence in market operation is seriously insufficient. The management index of enterprises has deteriorated. The reduction of the transport capacity of enterprises, the reduction of the turnover rate of ships, the serious decline in unit freight rates, the continuous increase in operating costs, the sharp reduction in corporate profits, the increase in corporate loan liabilities, the decrease in willingness to invest in transport capacity, the tighter liquidity, the relatively difficult financing of enterprises, and the continuous reduction of labor demand.

chart Three Trend chart of prosperity index and confidence index for dry bulk shipping enterprises

Container transport business prosperity and confidence index are at a record low. Two thousand and twenty year In the first quarter, the prosperity index of container transport enterprises is Sixty-four point two seven Point, down from last quarter. Sixty-four point seven three The index of container transport enterprises' confidence is Twenty-three Point, a sharp decline compared with the previous quarter. Eighty-eight point one four Point, enter the heavier recession area , enterprise Prosperity and confidence index Fall to the top of history low Point, enterprise The operation situation has declined sharply, and entrepreneurs are seriously lack of confidence in the overall development of the industry. Judging from various operating indicators , The drop in the transport capacity of enterprises has led to a sharp decline in the utilization ratio of enterprises, and the decline in freight rates. Sharp deterioration in corporate profits Although the liquidity of the enterprises is still relatively abundant, the financing difficulty of enterprises is relatively low, but the loan liabilities have increased, the demand for labor has been greatly reduced, and the willingness to invest in enterprises has also declined significantly. 。

chart Four Index of prosperity and confidence index of container transport enterprises

Two China's port business is at its lowest level.

Two thousand and twenty In the first quarter of 2014, the port business climate index was Sixty-three point seven three The number of points dropped sharply compared with the previous quarter, and entered a relatively sluggish interval. The port enterprises' overall operating conditions were not satisfactory. Forty-nine point seven seven Point, same as last quarter. slip In the more severe recession, port entrepreneurs are worried about the overall operation of the industry. Judging from various operating indicators , The throughput of the port has dropped significantly, the utilization rate of the berths has also declined significantly, the port charges have decreased, while the operating costs have risen, and the profits of enterprises have declined. Although the liquidity of port enterprises is relatively ample and the financing difficulty of enterprises is reduced, the assets and liabilities of enterprises have increased, the demand for labor has decreased, and the increase of new berths and machinery investment has declined.

chart Five Chart of prosperity index and confidence index for Port Enterprises

Three Shipping service enterprises reenter relatively depressed area

Two thousand and twenty In the first quarter of 2014, the prosperity index of shipping service enterprises was Sixty-one point four two Point, down from last quarter. Thirty-six point five seven From a weak recession to a relatively sluggish interval, the confidence index of shipping service enterprises is Thirty-six point six one Point, down from last quarter. Sixty-seven point three two Point, from the micro economic zone into a heavy recession interval. The prosperity index and confidence index of shipping service enterprises have fallen below the prosperity line. The overall operation of shipping service enterprises is poor, and entrepreneurs lack confidence in the development of the industry. Judging from various operating indicators , The operation index of shipping service enterprises has declined in a comprehensive way, the business cost of enterprises has been kept high, the volume of business and business fees has declined sharply, the profits of enterprises have declined sharply, the liquidity of enterprises has been tense, the financing difficulty has increased, and the loan arrears have been increasing continuously, resulting in a large decline in labor demand, and the willingness to invest in fixed assets continued to decline. 。

chart Six Chart of prosperity and confidence index of China's shipping service enterprises

42020 Forecast for the second quarter of 2014

China's shipping industry will remain depressed. Two thousand and twenty Year end Two quarter , China's shipping prosperity index is expected to be Ninety-three point two six Points, up from the current quarter Thirty point three one China's shipping confidence index is expected to enter a weak recession. Sixty point three one Points, up from the current quarter Twenty-one point two six Point, Get into The recession is more severe.

Fig. 7 forecast chart of China's shipping prosperity index and confidence index

The business situation of shipping enterprises is still serious. According to China's shipping boom survey, Two thousand and twenty Year end In the two quarter, the prosperity index of shipping enterprises is expected to be Ninety-five Point Four Zero Points, up from the current quarter Thirty-one point eight nine The confidence index of shipping enterprises is expected to be Fifty-eight point nine two Points, up from the current quarter Twenty-six point zero seven Point of view, the prosperity index and confidence index of shipping enterprises are still under the boom line. Overall, it is estimated that Two thousand and twenty Operation status of shipping enterprises in the second quarter of 2014 still Worrying, entrepreneurs confidence still Lack of a wait-and-see attitude towards future prospects.

Fig. 8 forecast chart of prosperity index and confidence index for shipping enterprises

The deterioration trend of Chinese port enterprises will be basically checked. According to China's shipping boom survey, Two thousand and twenty Year end In the two quarter, the port business climate index is expected to be Ninety-seven point six eight Points, up from the current quarter Thirty-three point nine five As a result, the business situation is still not optimistic, and the confidence index of port enterprises is expected to be Seventy-three point one eight Points, up from the current quarter Twenty-three point four one Point, fall into the recession area 。 Overall, Chinese port enterprises The trend of deterioration will be basically checked. , but Port entrepreneurs develop future industries Still exist Worry.

chart Nine Forecast chart of prosperity index and confidence index for Chinese port enterprises

The operation of shipping service enterprises will continue to be explored. Two thousand and twenty Year end In the two quarter, the prosperity index of shipping service enterprises is expected to be Eighty-five point nine eight Points, up from the current quarter Twenty-four point five six The confidence index of shipping service enterprises is expected to be relatively low. Forty-nine point two eight Points, up from the current quarter Twelve point six seven Point, enter the heavier recession area. On the whole, the prosperity index and confidence index of shipping service enterprises are still below the boom line, and shipping service entrepreneurs expect the overall situation of the industry to remain pessimistic, and entrepreneurs' confidence is still insufficient. 。

chart Ten Forecast chart of prosperity index and confidence index for shipping service enterprises

Five Nearly 60% port and shipping enterprises' business volume declined. Two Zero %

Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, most enterprises in China stopped production and delayed production, resulting in a sharp decline in shipping demand and a sharp decline in business volume. According to China's shipping prosperity survey, only 10.36% The volume of business is basically flat compared with the same period in previous years. , 11.55% Business volume decreased compared with the same period in previous years. 10% within , 19.12% Business volume decreased compared with the same period in previous years. 10%-20% And the volume of business declined. Two Zero % The proportion of Enterprises above accounted for nearly 60%, among them, 24.30% Business volume decreased compared with the same period in previous years. 20%-30% , 17.53% Business volume decreased compared with the same period in previous years. 30%-40% , Rest 17.13% Business volume decreased compared with the same period in previous years. 40% Above. Among the surveyed port and shipping enterprises, the volume of business of ship transport enterprises is the most serious. Three Five point six four % Decline in business volume Three Zero % Above, followed by shipping service enterprises, business volume declined. Three Zero % The above enterprises accounted for Three Zero point seven seven % And the volume of business declined. Three Zero % The above port enterprises are only Nine .09 % The short-term impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on shipping market is more obvious.

Six Nearly 60% port and shipping enterprises return to work. 90% Above

Since the outbreak of the new coronavirus pneumonia has been preliminarily controlled, it has been the focus of the whole society to promote the orderly resumption and resumption of production. According to China's shipping prosperity survey, there are 38.89% The enterprises have fully resumed their work. 20.63% The return rate of enterprises is 90%-95% Recovery rate Nine Zero % The above enterprises are nearly 60%. ; Surplus 15.08% The return rate of enterprises is 80%-90% , 10.32% The return rate of enterprises is 70%-80% , 10.32% The return rate of enterprises is 50%-70% The recovery rate is lower. 50% Enterprises only 4.76% 。 Among them, in the investigated shipping enterprises, port enterprises and shipping service enterprises, there are respectively 42.57% , 54.55% and 22.73% Enterprises have fully resumed work. The return of port and shipping enterprises is generally better.

Seven Resumption requires more financial and financial policy support.

The outbreak of the new crown pneumonia has caused great impact on the shipping industry, and the shipping market has entered a low level. The continuous operation of the enterprises is facing serious challenges. The enterprises urgently hope that the state and local governments will give policy support to all sides in order to ease the business difficulties faced by the enterprises. According to China's shipping prosperity survey, there are 30.54% Enterprises hope to be reduced. / Reduction of tax and other financial and financial policy support , 21.11% Enterprises hope to get the policy support for the reduction of operating costs in related links. , 17.22% Enterprises hope to get policy support for streamlining the approval process. , 15.57% The company hopes to get a policy support for suspending the implementation of low sulfur oil scheme for China's ships. , 13.77% Enterprises hope that the government can give enterprises support for epidemic prevention materials.