Port "Cooling": "Farewell To Dark Hour" And "New Alert" For Overseas Epidemic Situation

"I thought I could work normally after resuming my work. Who knows last week that he had to go abroad to cancel his overseas orders, and he did not work." Speaking of the recent rapid recovery of international port cargo in the industry, a person engaged in port logistics told the economic news reporters in twenty-first Century that "it is not true." after the severe epidemic situation, foreign trade became more difficult. Because some countries closed the territory, many of our original orders were either postponed or cancelled, not to mention new orders.

Over the past month, with the control of the domestic epidemic and the resumption of the national resumption of production, the major ports have bid farewell to the "darkest moment", and the production and operation began to recover slowly. According to the statistics of China Port Association, since March, the cargo throughput of the main hub ports has increased.

However, under the continuous spread of the overseas epidemic, Global trade has suffered a significant impact, and the port industry is facing serious challenges.

Affected by the progress of resumption of production in different regions, the growth rate of port cargo throughput between regions is divided. - Gan Jun photo

Port resumption and resumption of production

"The company will make every effort to do a good job in the prevention and control of epidemic situation. In accordance with the requirements of tight grasp and careful grasp, we should promote the resumption of work and resume production, and ensure the smooth and efficient port transport corridor with practical actions, and do our utmost to minimize the impact of the epidemic on port production." Faced with the negative impact of the epidemic on port business, the Hong Kong Group said. In twenty-first Century, the economic news reporter learned that as the operator of Shanghai port, the second largest hub of cargo throughput, Shanghai Port Group is taking various measures to promote resumption and resumption of production. Up to now, the average daily throughput of Shanghai port has basically returned to 9 of the normal level.

However, in the first two months of this year, the negative impact of the epidemic on Shanghai port was more obvious. The decline in cargo throughput ranks among the leading ports in the country. The scale of cargo throughput was overtaken by Tangshan port and Qingdao port.

According to the recent statistics released by the Ministry of transport, the cargo throughput of Shanghai port in the first two months of this year was 88 million 120 thousand tons, down 14.7% from the same period last year, and cargo throughput dropped to fourth place, after Ningbo Zhoushan port, Tangshan port and Qingdao port. Among them, Shanghai port's cargo throughput decreased to 36 million 300 thousand tons in February, down 16.9% compared with the same period last year, and fell by 29.9% compared with the same period.

The decline in throughput of Shanghai port is only a microcosm of the impact of the epidemic on the port industry. In the first two months of this year, the outbreak of domestic epidemics overlay the Spring Festival holidays, and the re employment of upstream and downstream enterprises in the port industry is hindered, resulting in a decline in demand for logistics and transportation, thus restricting the throughput of domestic major ports. According to the statistics of the Ministry of transport, from 1 to February, China's port cargo throughput was 18.7 billion tons, down 6% from the same period last year. Among them, container throughput 34 million 480 thousand standard boxes, down 10.6% compared to the same period.

It is worth noting that the impact of the February epidemic on the ports of the whole country is even more significant. According to statistics, China's port cargo throughput in February was 795 million 700 thousand tons, down 10.2% from the same period in 2019, and 26.2% lower than in January this year. Among them, foreign trade cargo throughput decreased by 20.2%.

Affected by the progress of resumption of production in different regions, the growth rate of port cargo throughput between regions is divided. Taking coastal ports as an example, cargo throughput and container throughput in Guangdong, Fujian, Hebei, Liaoning and Shanghai declined considerably, with Shanghai and Liaoning dropping by 14.7% and 12% respectively, while cargo throughput in coastal areas of Guangxi, Tianjin, Shandong and Shandong increased positively, with the largest increase in the proportion of registered goods, up 16.6% over the same period last year.

Affected by this, the throughput ranking among major ports in China has changed. The brighter ones are Shandong's two largest ports, Qingdao port and Rizhao Port, with cargo throughput of 92 million 680 thousand tons and 78 million 970 thousand tons respectively, ranking third and sixth respectively in the first two months.

In view of the phenomenon of regional cargo throughput growth and differentiation, Huaxi Securities analysis considers that it is caused by two reasons: first, the different rhythm of reemployment, the different degree of influence of different areas, the different industrial structure, and the difference in the proportion of migrant workers, leading to the different pace of upstream and downstream production enterprises returning to work, thus affecting the growth of cargo throughput in various ports. Two, Guangxi, Jiangxi and other central and western low economic base areas in the context of regional economic restructuring to undertake industrial transfer projects, strong domestic demand, and promote the growth of cargo throughput.

The agency further stated that "with the stable control of domestic epidemic situation, the upstream and downstream enterprises will gradually resume work and resume production, and the subsequent throughput of domestic trade is expected to rebound."

Shrinking foreign trade demand

"The whole world is pressing the" pause button ". Can we do it well? The former port logistics personage sighed to the economic news reporter twenty-first Century. What worries the people is that the recent outbreaks of foreign affairs have cast a shadow over his company's business.

As of March 31st, the number of confirmed cases of overseas new crown pneumonia exceeded 710 thousand, and the situation is becoming increasingly severe. In this regard, national governments' preventive and control strategies have undergone fundamental changes. According to incomplete statistics, half of the top ten trade partners in China are now announcing the closure of ports.

The Port Association of China predicts that the international market demand and market supply will have significant structural shrinkage in the two quarter, which will directly affect the container business volume of foreign trade hub ports. It is initially estimated that container throughput in the two quarter will probably drop by 5% to 10% over the same period.

For China's port industry, the escalation of overseas epidemic is sounding the "new alarm".

In March 31st, a research report by Foreign Investment Company Da he securities lowered the target price of 00144.HK. The agency believes that the new crown pneumonia epidemic in Europe and the United States has led to low consumption sentiment, and the volume of throughput of China Merchants port is expected to decline this year.

One analyst told the twenty-first Century economic news reporter that under the increasingly severe epidemic situation abroad, various countries took measures such as "sealing the city" to curb the development of the epidemic. This means that even if the international shipping market remains smooth, there may be no one to receive the goods after being transported to overseas ports, causing the entire trade chain to be incomplete. Moreover, some countries take measures to "block Hong Kong" and directly block foreign trade. Therefore, unless some medical, life necessities and commodities, other trade demand is bound to shrink dramatically.

The shrinking demand for foreign trade can also be reflected in the shipping market. The average daily freight rate of the Panama type ship (the average duration of the 4 routes) shows that as of March 30th, the figure was 5253 US dollars / day, though the ratio rose slightly, but it has dropped 31.7% compared with the beginning of the year.

In fact, when China's port business was hit by the impact of the domestic epidemic in 1 and February, cargo throughput from foreign trade was once "lifted". According to the statistics of the Ministry of transport, in the first two months of this year, China's port foreign trade cargo throughput was 6.9 million tons, an increase of 0.8% over the same period last year.

It is worth mentioning that half of the port's foreign trade cargo throughput accounts for more than 50% of the 20 major ports before China's cargo throughput. According to the statistics of twenty-first Century economic report, Guangzhou port, Qingdao port, Suzhou (inland river) port and Shanghai port accounted for more than 60% of foreign trade cargo throughput in the first two months of this year. Among them, the port of Guangzhou is as high as 84.1%.

"Port is equivalent to an economic and geographical phenomenon in the whole trade chain, which means that its initiative is limited." The analysts told the twenty-first Century economic news reporter that in the face of the impact of the overseas epidemic, the port's response measures were limited. On the one hand, it could consider expanding new businesses, such as digging out key goods in the region or transporting empty containers. On the other hand, efforts should be made to reduce costs and improve service quality.

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