Oil Prices Rebound, Polyester Raw Materials Prices Rise To The Bottom Of The Time?

Because Saudi Arabia led OPEC member countries and Russia led non OPEC members failed to reach a production reduction agreement, the two sides began to fight a price war, international oil prices fell more than 60% in a month, and in March 30th even fell below the $20 mark, hitting a new low since 2002.

The unprecedented drop in international oil prices has created a big diving price for polyester raw materials.

But in April 2nd, the crude oil market experienced a sudden change in the style of the painting, and the US oil market rose more than 30% in the oil market, and the oil market once rose more than 45%. As of the end of the day, US WTI crude oil futures rose 24.67%, to 25.32 U.S. dollars / barrel; Brent crude oil futures rose 21.02%, to 29.94 U.S. dollars / barrel, are the largest single day gains in history.

The sharp rebound in international oil prices has also led to a rise in the price of raw polyester materials.

Polyester filament also sold for over two consecutive days, exceeding 100%, ending the "tragedy" of 5 percent since the resumption. On the 3 th, some mainstream factories increased their quoted price by 100-300 yuan / ton.

Under such circumstances, many cloth bosses have played the role of collecting raw materials and storing lots of goods. Is it a good time to search the bottom now? What risks are hidden behind the bottom?

The raw material has reached its low point and should be released when it hits.

First of all, the price of polyester raw materials has indeed bottomed out, and there is not much room for reduction. Xiaobian intercepted the price chart of PTA's internal market since 2014. It can be seen clearly that before 2020, the lowest price of PTA was close to 4000 yuan / ton, but in April 1, 2020, the price of PTA's internal offer had dropped to 3080 yuan / ton.

The reason why the price of PTA is so low is that the lowest price of international oil has been combined with the epidemics of decades in the world. Now the price of oil has loosened, and the rebound of polyester raw materials is also expected. 18.

From two consecutive days over 100 production and marketing, we can also find that many weaving companies have chosen to buy and use the strategy before buying the goods.

Wang, manager of a weaving enterprise with 200 jet looms, said he had hoarding half a month's raw materials on Friday. He believed that the price of raw materials is very low now, even if it is lower in the future, it will be limited, but once the price is missed, the future will be regretted, but because of limited funds on hand, the raw material for half a month is bought first.

Mr. Wang's thoughts reflect some of the psychology of the weaving enterprises. When they feel that they have reached the bottom of the market, the other side is trapped in the plaguing of liquidity, and finally they choose a small amount of raw materials.

There are also a number of weaving enterprises in the recent large number of hoarding raw materials, this part of the enterprises generally have two kinds of situations, one is the recent business has not been greatly affected, so it can maintain abundant cash flow, these enterprises are now a minority; the other is the business strategy is more radical, ready to ride the market quotes "fight, bicycle to motorcycle".

The heart is surplus but the strength is not enough. Living is the most important.

But at the same time, we also see that when a part of weaving enterprises choose raw materials, many enterprises choose to remain the same. More than half of these enterprises are in the process of investigation, and they also have very good reasons.

The epidemic is spreading, and foreign trade is facing "darkest moment".

By the morning of April 6th Beijing, the global cumulative diagnosis has exceeded 1 million 270 thousand, and nearly 70 thousand deaths have been recorded. Johns Hopkins University of America, 5, analyzed the latest 5 day averages of newly diagnosed cases, and combed the latest trend of epidemic in the most serious countries in the world. The data show that the epidemic in the United States, Italy, Germany, France, Britain, Belgium and other countries is still spreading.

As the traditional export place of Chinese textiles, the export of Chinese textiles has been greatly affected by the epidemic situation in Europe and America.

The manager of a foreign trade export company, Liu manager, said that since the beginning of the year, their company had not sent the goods abroad, and the talks were cancelled and production was suspended. For example, many of the company's products are exported to India, but when No. 20 India sealed up the country, the customer sent a message that the order was suspended. The news said that India would be released in April 14th, but whether it could get the list again was unknown, but there was no way to wait for the customer to notify.

Lin manager is mainly engaged in the European and American NIS spinning business. He also said that from the middle of March, foreign orders were frequently returned, some orders were withdrawn in advance, and some orders were withdrawn during processing. At present, foreign trade exports are basically at a standstill.

It is not the case that the returned orders were encountered. According to an industry survey report in Keqiao, 78.4% of the textile enterprises in the region indicated that orders were decreasing, and 64.8% of the enterprises reflected the cancellation of the existing orders.

In 2019, China's textile and clothing exports amounted to US $271 billion 500 million. When the foreign trade market was affected by the epidemic situation, the textile industry is bound to suffer serious overcapacity problems.

What is more serious is that these problems happen under the condition of high inventory of grey cloth in weaving enterprises.

Grey cloth inventory, 2019 "cold winter" "left over" problem

Since May 2019, the inventory of weaving enterprises has become a headache because of the combined effect of the Sino US trade friction and the excess capacity of water jet looms. And after 2020, when the domestic epidemic and foreign epidemic were hit repeatedly, when the weaving enterprises resumed work, there was a temporary consumption of the billet storage, and it did not even fall or rise. According to the data monitoring of China silk net, the inventory of grey fabric weaving in Shengze area in April 2nd was about 40-41 days, which basically exceeded that before resuming work.

Under the huge amount of grey cloth inventory and the dim market situation, many cloth owners chose to cut production and stop production. From the point of view of loom starting rate, according to the data monitoring of China silk net, after the late March, the loom start rate of weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces did not rise or fall, but dropped to 72% in April 3rd, and the opening rate last year was close to 9.

Lin manager, who is responsible for the production of spring Asia textile, has recently been in a headache for stocks stacked with warehouses. According to his introduction, the current inventory of spring sub spinning has reached 3 million meters, which is almost two months' output. During this time, the factory has lowered the start-up rate to about 7 percent. If we continue to accumulate the library next, we may stop all the machines.

Lee, manager of a weaving enterprise, a main weaving fabric manufacturer, also said that under the pressure of high inventory and low profit, they have changed from two shifts to three shifts, and the machine has stopped nearly 1/3. If there is no order in the future, it may choose four shifts or even a holiday.

For a part of weaving enterprises, there is no order now, and the cloth produced can only be turned into stock. The factory has been down and even ready to go on holiday. Under such circumstances, it is a wise choice to choose not to stockpile raw materials.

? afterword

With the advent of crude oil inflection point, polyester raw material prices began to rebound at the same time. For weaving enterprises, the problem of hoarding raw materials has become a problem.

On the one hand, the price of raw materials is indeed cheap, and it is very likely that it is low. It can be said that "buy is earned"; on the other hand, the international epidemic spreads, the market orders are cancelled, weaving capacity is seriously overloaded, and some weaving enterprises choose to cut production and stop production.

Therefore, in today's situation, there is no difference between right and wrong in storing raw materials or storing raw materials.