The SMIC Is On The Market, And The Hong Kong Stock Market Is Close To HK $180 Billion.

In July 2nd, SMIC made a preliminary inquiry, marking the entry of the chip giant's science and technology board into the pricing link.

Since SMIC's application for listing on Ke Chuang board was accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange in June 1st, SMIC's every move has attracted much attention from the market. In June 29th, the SFC agreed to register its science and technology board IPO, which meant that SMIC had "cleared customs" on the 29 day.

According to the arrangement, SMIC decided the issue price in July 3rd and purchased it in July 7th.

At present, the industry is most concerned about how the investors of the science and Technology Board will price the chip maker. In twenty-first Century, the economic news reporter learned that the agency gave a variety of potential valuation anchoring guesses to SMIC, and many of them predicted a market value of up to 200 billion yuan.

In July 2nd, the day before the issuance price of the Chuang Chuang board was determined, SMIC shares took off again, closing at HK $31.6, or 17.04%, with a market value close to HK $180 billion.

Speed "customs clearance"

SMIC took 29 days to reach the gate of A shares. In the meantime, the SMIC IPO project only lasted 4 days from receiving to inquiring; it only lasted 19 days from receiving to meeting; after 3 days, SMIC submitted its registration; after a week, the registration came into effect.

Such audit speed is absolutely unprecedented. Wang Jiyue, a senior investment bank, told the twenty-first Century economic news reporter that "follow up inquiries and roadshow listing should take at least 13 working days. SMIC is expected to be listed before July 22nd (1st anniversary of the science and technology board)."

SMIC is now in a rush to break through the KPC board. There is not much suspense. In the evening of SMIC's registration with IPO, many people in the industry said with a laugh: SMIC has agreed to register and has not been "news".

A visiting investment bank told reporters earlier that SMIC has been listed on the mature market abroad, with 16 years of natural attributes of public companies. Corporate governance and daily information disclosure have been strictly tested by the market. At the same time, strong scientific creation, strategic value and market position have become the prerequisites for speeding up the process of SMIC's return.

Insiders generally believe that the significance of quick docking between SMIC and the domestic capital market is reflected in the fact that under the registration system, the company has greater support for high-tech enterprises, which supports the development of domestic semiconductor leading companies from the perspective of capital market, and accelerates the replacement of domestic chips.

According to the latest prospectus issued by SMIC, SMIC intends to raise 20 billion yuan, plans to invest 12 inch chip SN1 project (8 billion yuan), advanced and mature R & D project reserve fund (4 billion yuan), and supplement working capital (8 billion yuan).

At present, the pricing process is in progress. SMIC opened its offline roadshow in July 1st, made an initial inquiry in July 2nd, and set the issue price in July 3rd.

According to the prospectus, the number of initial shares issued by SMIC is 1 billion 686 million shares. The total number of shares issued after the issue is 7 billion 136 million shares (before the allotment option is exercised). If the allotment option is exercised in full, the total number of shares issued after the issue is 7 billion 389 million shares (after the full allotment option is exercised in full).

In terms of strategic investors, the number of initial strategic allotment shares was 843 million shares, accounting for 50% of the initial issue amount, accounting for 43.48% of the total number of shares issued after the full allotment option was exercised in full. Among them, the relevant subsidiary company "Haitong venture capital", "CICC fortune" and the number of shares invested are expected to be 2% of the public offering shares, that is, 33 million 712 thousand and 400 shares, and the subscription amount is no more than 1 billion yuan.

In fact, SMIC has locked two heavyweight strategic investors in early June. Among them, China Xinke will participate in the strategic placement as a strategic investor and subscribe to RMB shares up to RMB 2 billion yuan. The Shanghai integrated circuit fund subscribed for RMB up to RMB 500 million yuan.

How to price?

The issue of IPO is already in sight. What the industry is more concerned about is how the price of the chip maker will be priced.

Shen Wan Hongyuan strategy chief analyst Lin Jin analysis, through the comparison of SMIC fundamentals and comparable industry companies, it is expected that the range of issuing price of SMIC may be: 27.62 yuan -30.59 yuan, corresponding initial market value range is 197 billion 100 million yuan -2183 billion yuan.

Lin Jin said that due to the relatively comparable TSMC, Lianhua electronics, Huahong semiconductor and other overseas listed companies, the valuation levels of different markets are quite different, so the relative valuation method, such as P / E ratio, market sales rate and market rate, can not objectively reflect the company's valuation. Taking into account the current listing of SMIC in Hong Kong stock, reference is made to the "AH" premium level of the new issue issued by the company.

Lin Jin picked up a closer reference to China's core market value and closer to China's total number and Jun Shi biological AH shares as a reference. The first price of the two parties was 10.2% and 3.1% higher than the closing price of the Hong Kong stock in the first trading day prior to the inquiry. Based on the industry status of SMIC and considering the liquidity premium factor, the first price of the SMIC International Innovation Board was compared to the latest closing price of Hong Kong stock as of June 30th, 24.66 yuan 12%-24 The premium level is 27.62 yuan -30.59 yuan.

In a June 16th Research Report, Xingye securities gave four anchor estimates: the valuation anchor was calculated at the premium of the comparable plate and the Chinese general A/ H shares, the potential valuation was 191 billion 900 million yuan /1856 billion, and the valuation anchor two, with the korchuang semiconductor company (excluding the top three) PE and PB projections, the potential valuation was 223 billion 100 million yuan /2913 billion, the valuation anchor three, the TSMC and the global comparable public. The PB estimates that the potential valuation is 235 billion 100 million yuan /597 billion, and the valuation anchor four is estimated by the ratio of TSMC to the market share, with a potential valuation of 209 billion 300 million yuan.

According to the above analysis, SMIC's initial market value will reach more than 200 billion yuan, and in the current A share market, the most valuable semiconductor company is weir shares, the latest market value is 185 billion 400 million yuan. That is to say, after the listing of SMIC, it is very likely that it will be on the throne of "the largest market capitalization company in the semiconductor industry".

It is worth noting that with the schedule of SMIC landing, the SMIC share price has soared all the way. Since the announcement, the cumulative increase has reached 107%.

He Lizhong, an electronics analyst at Guoxin Securities, believes that the issuance of Ke Chuang board will enhance the valuation of SMIC in Hong Kong stock market. "Because the investors in SMIC A/H have a high degree of overlap, the A/H valuation of SMIC will converge. The core value of Hong Kong stocks will match the 5 times PB valuation of the company."

Talking about the possible premium of SMIC in Hong Kong stock and Ke Chuang plate, Xingye Securities believes that SMIC is a self controlled scarce target in the wafer semiconductor industry in mainland China, and there is a certain premium for Hong Kong stock valuation. Under the difference of investors, the AH premium exists for a long time, and the premium of the science and technology board is more obvious. But the market and the Hong Kong stock market are divided. The IPO market has less circulation, and the market price may fluctuate in a certain extent in the short run.

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