Semi Annual Report Of New Energy Vehicles

With the gradual disclosure of performance forecast and semi annual report, the impact of the epidemic on the new energy vehicle industry and the follow-up development of new energy vehicles are emerging.

In the first half of 2020 under the shadow of new crown pneumonia, the new energy vehicle industry has been greatly impacted.

As of August 11, more than half of the 29 companies in the wind new energy vehicle concept plate disclosed medium-term performance forecasts.

However, as the impact of the domestic market epidemic gradually subsided, the automotive industry has been moving towards recovery. At the bottom of the industry, Ningde era, a giant, has launched an industrial chain investment plan to invest in high-quality listed enterprises upstream and downstream of the industrial chain at home and abroad in the form of securities investment.

With the gradual maturity of the industry and the decline of subsidies, the main battlefield of new energy vehicles is moving from subsidies to the market.

Chinese newspaper under the influence of epidemic situation

According to wind data, the 21st century economic reporter found that as of August 11, 29 companies in the wind new energy vehicle concept plate disclosed medium-term performance forecasts, of which 5 were uncertain, 7 were expected to be happy, and 17 were expected to reduce or lose. Among them, six companies, including yinlun, aotexun, Xingmin Zhitong, Yinhe electronics, Great Wall Motors and Xinquan, have disclosed the 2020 interim report.

Jiangling Automobile, Changan Automobile and Derun Electronic Co., Ltd. predicted that the net profit growth rate reached more than 200%. Among them, Derun electronic predicted net profit of about 101.6 million yuan to 151.1 million yuan, with an increase of 450% in the forecast, ranking first in the growth rate of disclosed performance forecast companies.

However, more than half of the enterprises have expected reduction or loss. The epidemic has affected all aspects of the industrial chain.

In the first half of the year, the net profit of Huafeng is expected to decrease by RMB 181.3 million to RMB 25.51 million. One of the important reasons is that in the first half of the year, affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic in China and Beijing, the market demand for new energy vehicles dropped sharply, and the time for the affiliated enterprises and the upstream and downstream industrial chains to resume production was delayed, resulting in a significant reduction in operating revenue.

GuoXuan high tech, on the other hand, pointed out that in the first half of the year, the company's power battery demand declined due to the impact of the new crown epidemic and the market sales were lower than expected. In the first half of the year, the production and operation of downstream customers recovered slowly, the company's production orders and product shipment volume declined to a certain extent; at the same time, the new capacity of domestic power battery manufacturers was gradually released, the market demand was less than expected, and the competition was increasingly fierce, and the company's net profit decreased significantly compared with the same period last year.

It is estimated that the net profit in the first half of the year is about 30.5 million yuan to 39.5 million yuan, down 88.76% - 91.32% compared with the same period of last year.

Otsun also disclosed that the revenue of new energy electric vehicle charging business decreased significantly in the first half of the year, and fixed expenses such as costs and expenses did not decline in the same proportion, resulting in the decline of performance. It is estimated that the net loss in the first half of the year will be about 15.5-17.5 million yuan, and the net profit will decrease by 137.45% - 168.09% year on year.

BYD's performance is more optimistic. Its net profit in the first half of the year is expected to be about 1.6 billion to 1.8 billion yuan, an increase of 10% - 23.75%.

"In the second quarter of 2020, it is expected that the impact of the epidemic situation in the domestic market will gradually subside and the automobile industry will recover steadily. Benefiting from the recovery of the industry and the continuous improvement of the group's brand power, it is expected that the sales volume and revenue of the group's new energy vehicles will go out of the trough and drive the group's revenue to achieve recovery growth. At the same time, the continued decline in the cost of new energy vehicles will also promote the group's profitability. " It points out.

BYD also noted that mask production is expected to also provide a positive contribution to the group's sales revenue and profit growth.

The reporter of 21st century economic report noted that many automobile enterprises such as BYD, Wuling Automobile, GAC group, Jiangling Automobile and Changan Automobile opened up the production of epidemic prevention materials such as masks in the first half of the year.

"The company's mask production is in BYD's electronics sector, in which mask production will be a long-term business in the future. At first, it was based on the sense of social responsibility, but now the company sees a good development prospect in the future. The whole international situation, including the situation of epidemic control in European and American countries, is not very good. In the future, the company will regard it as a long-term business and determine the production and scale according to the market situation and social demand. It can be clear that the mask will be a long-term business and will exist in the future Under the medical sector. " On August 12, people from BYD Securities Department told reporters of the 21st century economic report who called as investors.

"After the outbreak of new crown pneumonia, Wuling industry actively cross-border production of masks and mask production lines. In the future, Wuling Industrial Co., Ltd. will retain the ability of medical mask products, and at the same time, combine its own advantages to layout other products in the field of medical devices, and gradually enter the field of medical big health Wuling Automobile related person in charge told the 21st century economic reporter.

Cost is the key to competitiveness

With the gradual maturity of the industry and the decline of subsidies, the cost of new energy vehicles has become the key to participate in market competition.

"In the market-oriented competition, achieving cost parity with fuel vehicles is the ultimate competitiveness of new energy vehicles." Dongxing securities research paper pointed out.

Its analysis shows that the purchase restriction and subsidy policies provide a premium for new energy vehicles. At present, the median price of domestic best-selling pure electric vehicles is about 20000 yuan higher than that of best-selling fuel vehicles. Considering that the average license plate cost of new energy vehicles is 26400 yuan / vehicle (55000 × 48%) nationwide, the price effectiveness of domestic new energy vehicle market is already high.

In the market-oriented competition, achieving cost parity with fuel vehicles is the final competitiveness of new energy vehicles.

At the best-selling price of fuel vehicles (100000-150000), pure electric vehicles do not show the same outstanding sales level, and the sales volume of best-selling vehicles is still far behind that of the best-selling fuel vehicles of the same level. The main reason is that at present, the new energy vehicles have not realized the life cycle cost parity with fuel vehicles, and the effective supply of models is less, which can not meet the diverse needs of consumers.

It believes that in the second half of the year, a number of pure electric vehicles will be on the market to fill the supply gap, or will effectively promote sales. New energy vehicles from "old, middle-aged and young" platforms will compete on the same platform, and the market competition will be more sufficient.

"In the future, the company will focus on the new energy vehicle industry, and fuel vehicles will gradually reduce with the market demand. The company will also implement DMI technology next year, which belongs to low-cost hybrid technology. For new energy vehicle enterprises, the most important thing is to level with fuel vehicles in terms of cost performance. If the price of oil and electricity can be achieved in the future, the company's new energy market share can be rapidly improved. The DMI technology to be implemented next year is a breakthrough. The company's short-term strategy is inclined to hybrid technology, and has been focusing on the development of pure electric vehicles for a long time. Pure electric vehicles are the common development direction in the future. " BYD related people said.

Based on the global sales of new energy vehicles in 2019, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles in that year is 2.5%. According to Wang Zhengsheng, former chief science and technology expert of former ordnance equipment group company and chief engineer of Changan Automobile Engineering Research Institute, the range from 2% to 10%, especially to 5%, will be a huge industry bottleneck period. Wang Zhengsheng predicted that by 2023, the cost of pure electric new energy vehicles with the same brand and series will reach a balance point with traditional vehicles. After that, the cost advantage of new energy vehicles may gradually increase.

"Before the inflection point, electric vehicles are more expensive than traditional diesel vehicles, and they need subsidies or other policies. After reaching a balance year, with the increase in volume and the maturity of various aspects of the market, there are still opportunities for lower costs, among which the decline of battery costs is the most critical." Wang Zhengsheng said. (Editor: Wu Yanling)

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