Interpretation: Both The Purchasing Manager Index Of Manufacturing Industry And The Business Activity Index Of Non Manufacturing Industry Picked Up In September

On September 30, 2020, the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China purchasing manager index. In this regard, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center Senior Statistician Zhao Qinghe has carried on the interpretation.

At present, the overall planning of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development has continued to advance. China's economy has maintained a stable recovery trend, and positive changes are increasing. In September, China's purchasing managers' index all rebounded significantly. Among them, the manufacturing purchasing manager index, non manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index were 51.5%, 55.9% and 55.1%, respectively, up 0.5%, 0.7% and 0.6 percentage points higher than the previous month. Since March, the three major indexes have remained above the critical point.

　　 1、 Purchasing managers' index rises

In September, the PMI of manufacturing industry was 51.5%. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 17 industries' PMI was above the critical point, and the prosperity of manufacturing industry was expanded compared with that of last month. Main features of the month:

First, both sides of supply and demand recovered simultaneously. With the continuous recovery of supply and demand and the advent of the traditional production peak season, the purchase intention of enterprises has increased, and the market activity has increased. The production index and new order index are 54.0% and 52.8%, respectively higher than 0.5% and 0.8% of the previous month. From the perspective of the industry, the production index and new order index of refined tea, general equipment, special equipment, computer communication electronic equipment and other manufacturing industries were all above 55.0%, which were higher than that of last month.

Second, the import and export index rose above the critical point. With the implementation of a series of stable foreign trade policies and the partial recovery of international market demand, the import and export of manufacturing industry has further improved. This month, the new export order index and import index were 50.8% and 50.4%, respectively higher than 1.7% and 1.4% of the previous month, and rose above the prosperity and recession line for the first time since this year.

Third, the recovery of some key industries has accelerated. The PMI of high-tech manufacturing industry and equipment manufacturing industry were 54.5% and 53.0%, respectively higher than 1.7% and 0.3% of the previous month. The pace of industrial upgrading was accelerated, and the driving role of new kinetic energy was enhanced. In addition, with the approaching of national day and Mid Autumn Festival, holiday consumption effect has appeared. The PMI of consumer goods industry has risen to 52.1%, 1.7 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. Among them, the index of new orders is 53.7%, which is 2.9 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, indicating that the increase of product order volume of related enterprises is accelerated.

Fourth, the PMI of small enterprises is back above the boom and bust line. The PMI of large, medium and small enterprises were 52.5%, 50.7% and 50.1% respectively. The small enterprises rose above the prosperity and withering line for the first time since June. The recovery of prosperity is due to the arrival of the traditional peak season of manufacturing industry, and also benefited from a series of relief and assistance policies for small and micro enterprises.

At the same time, we should also see that although the overall demand of the manufacturing industry has improved, the recovery of the industry is not balanced. The survey results show that more than 50% of the enterprises in the textile, clothing, wood processing and other manufacturing industries reflect insufficient market demand this month, which is higher than the overall level of the manufacturing industry, and the recovery momentum is still insufficient. In addition, the global epidemic situation has not been comprehensively and effectively controlled, and there are still unstable and uncertain factors in China's import and export.

Second, the index of non business activities continued to rise

In September, the non manufacturing business activity index was 55.9%, 0.7% higher than that of the previous month, and the non manufacturing business prosperity recovered steadily.

The recovery of the service industry has accelerated. In September, the business activity index of the service industry was 55.2%, 0.9 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, rising for two consecutive months. From the perspective of the industry, except for capital market services, the business activity index of other industries is above the critical point. Among them, the business activity index of transportation, telecommunication Internet software, accommodation and catering industry remains above 60.0%, and the total business volume grows rapidly; the business activity index of leasing and business services, ecological protection and environmental management industries with a relatively slow recovery in the early stage are all above the critical point More than 6.0 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, and the industry activity increased rapidly. From the perspective of market demand and expectation, the index of new orders and the expected index of business activities were 53.5% and 62.2%, respectively higher than that of 2.0% and 0.9% of the previous month, indicating that the market demand of the service industry is picking up and business confidence is further strengthened.

The construction industry remains at a high level. The business activity index of the construction industry was 60.2%, which was the same as that of the previous month, which was above 60.0% for three consecutive months, indicating that with the increase of domestic infrastructure investment, the acceleration of new infrastructure construction and the rapid growth of industrial production. From the perspective of market demand and expectation, the index of new orders and the expected index of business activities were 56.9% and 67.8%, respectively, higher than 0.5% and 1.2% of the previous month, indicating that the number of new engineering contracts signed by the construction industry has increased, and enterprises are relatively optimistic about the development of the industry in the near future.

　 3. The composite PMI output index rose for two consecutive months

In September, the comprehensive PMI output index was 55.1%, 0.6 percentage points higher than the previous month, and the production and operation activities of China's enterprises have accelerated. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the composite PMI output index, were 54.0% and 55.9% respectively, which were higher than that of last month.