2020 Price Map: "Hot In The South And Cold In The North" Becomes The Main Theme, Leading The Rise Of First Tier Cities Again

"There is no constant force in the army, and the water does not change shape." After the baptism of many factors, such as the transformation of economic momentum, the regulation of the real estate market, and the epidemic situation of new crown pneumonia, the house price map in 2020 shows some new changes.

On January 15, 2021, the National Bureau of statistics released the house price changes of 70 large and medium-sized cities in December 2020. While maintaining the consistent stable trend, the price growth of 70 cities appeared "tail up" at the end of the year. This also reflects that the resilience of the real estate market can not be underestimated.

Throughout the year of 2020, due to the influence of many factors, the curve of house price rise is quite twists and turns. It can be summarized as follows: the first quarter is sluggish, the second quarter is rebounding, the third quarter is turning to adjustment, and the end of December is up. Among them, after entering the fourth quarter, the first tier cities led the rise again, becoming one of the most significant characteristics of last year.

In terms of regional distribution, the situation of "hot in the South and cold in the north" runs through the whole year. Southern cities have long dominated the rise, while northern cities have been in the forefront of the decline.

From a longer period of time, there are deep internal motives behind these two kinds of appearances. Experts believe that this is not only the embodiment of the law of economic growth and the effect of monetary policy, but also will largely determine the future trend of the property market.

Fourth quarter shows regulatory results

The outbreak of new crown pneumonia is the biggest interference factor in the property market in 2020. Due to the sluggish market transactions, the housing prices in 70 cities have been in a stable state in the first quarter.

Subsequently, the market began to rebound from April 2020, and house prices also rebounded. According to the interpretation of the National Bureau of statistics, the trend of housing prices in April, may and June is "slightly rising in stability", "slightly rising" and "slightly rising". During this period, panic spread in a few eastern cities, and irrational prices rose.

In July last year, in order to stabilize market expectations, the regulatory authorities made continuous policy statements. In addition to further clarify the "no speculation of housing" and "three stabilities" (stabilizing the land price, stabilizing the house price and stabilizing the expectation), it also proposes "insisting on not using real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy". In addition, the "Prudential Management System of real estate finance", which aims at quantitative management of real estate finance, is also put forward for the first time and is interpreted as an important restrictive policy of the industry.

At the same time, with the gradual withdrawal of temporary monetary easing measures introduced during the epidemic period, monetary policy returned to the general tone of "stable and neutral". From the second half of last year, the property market gradually cooled down.

By the fourth quarter, the effectiveness of regulation and control was truly prominent. According to the Statistics Bureau, from October to December last year, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, the number of cities with rising new house prices has dropped to less than 45 (including), and the number of cities with falling house prices has also increased significantly. In the whole second and third quarters, the number of cities with rising house prices was more than 50.

According to the statistics of Shanghai E-House Research Institute, in December 2020, the average price of new houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities increased by 0.1% month on month and 2.1% on average year-on-year, both of which were the lowest since the second quarter.

It is worth noting that entering the fourth quarter, the first tier cities led the rise again. In December last year, new house prices in first tier cities rose 0.3% month on month, higher than 0.1% in second tier and third tier cities; second-hand house prices rose 0.6% month on month, significantly higher than 0.1% and 0.2% in second tier and third tier cities.

Guangzhou became the most active first tier city in the fourth quarter. In December, Guangzhou's new and second-hand housing prices rose by 0.7%, ranking second to 70 large and medium-sized cities.

Due to the earliest introduction of the housing market regulation policy and the greatest strength, for a long time, the housing prices in the first tier cities have remained stable on the whole, with few obvious ups and downs. In the official statistics, on the contrary, it is the second and third tier cities that have long led the way in housing prices.

As for the "reversal" of the first tier cities, Yan Yuejin, director of the think tank center of Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, told the 21st century economic report that in the past few years, the third and fourth tier cities have mainly benefited from the dividend of the shed reform, while the second tier cities have mainly benefited from the new talent policy, and their house prices have been significantly supported. However, as the boom of shed reform subsides and monetary policy returns to neutrality, the value of first tier cities is highlighted again. Of course, the housing prices in some second tier cities in the east still have many favorable supports, but they are not as good as the agglomeration effect of first tier cities.

As for the rise of Guangzhou's housing price, it is the result of the comprehensive effect of talent introduction policy, Shenzhen Dongguan spillover effect, and "price depression" supplementary rise.

The potential impact of population mobility

From the perspective of regional distribution, last year's house prices showed a situation of "hot in the South and cold in the north". In terms of the number of cities with rising house prices, the southern cities are stronger than the northern cities. Among them, Yangzhou, Guangzhou, Fuzhou, Hefei, Xining, Xiamen and Dandong were 7 cities, most of which were in the south.

After the epidemic situation stabilized last year, the recovery rate of the property market in the South was faster than that in the north.

Zhang Bo, President of anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, told the 21st century economic report that the flow of population, especially the relaxation of talent policy in the first and second tier core cities, has led to an increasing trend of population flowing into the Yangtze River Delta, Dawan district and the Central Yangtze River urban agglomeration. This trend has been very obvious in the past three years. Last year, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Ningbo and other cities had great pressure on house prices, which were directly related to the demand growth brought about by the inflow of population. This is also the main reason for the rapid recovery of the property market in the South after the stable epidemic situation.

At the same time, after several years of continuous regulation and deep consolidation of the market, demand is also returning in stages. Among them, the return of southern cities such as Shanghai and Guangzhou is particularly obvious. In the north, the core cities represented by Beijing have also entered a hot regression period, but the pace is still slower than that in the south.

He also said that the supply of land market in Zhengzhou, Tianjin, Jinan, Qingdao and other cities in the North increased significantly from 2018 to 2019, which led to the phenomenon that supply exceeded demand. In addition, the overall population inflow was relatively small, and the sustainability of demand growth was slightly weak. All these factors lead to the housing price performance of "strong in the South and weak in the north".

However, Zhang Bo believes that this phenomenon will be alleviated in 2021, and Tianjin, Jinan, Qingdao and other northern cities, and even some second tier cities in the northeast, are likely to recover in the first quarter. However, considering the general trend of economic growth and population mobility, fundamentally speaking, it is difficult to completely improve the situation of "strong in the South and weak in the north" in the short term.

Looking forward to the trend of house prices in 2021, policy is still considered to be the decisive factor. Most respondents pointed out that with the gradual implementation of the "three red lines" and the introduction of the centralized management system for real estate loans in the banking industry, the real estate industry will continue to deleverage both supply and demand, which is of great help to the stable development of the market.

Xu Xiaole, chief analyst of Shell Research Institute, believes that under the background of monetary policy returning to neutral, loose housing credit environment and the continuous deepening of "one city, one policy", the rise of urban house prices in China will gradually narrow.

But he also pointed out that the market will continue to focus on the core cities in 2021, so the housing prices in some cities are still facing greater upward pressure. According to the data of Shell Research Institute, in the first week of 2021, the cities with high market prosperity index are mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, while Shanghai, Hefei and other cities have higher prosperity index. These cities have greater pressure on housing price rise in the short term.

Yan Yuejin said that in recent years, China's real estate market regulation means have become more and more flexible, and the long-term mechanism has been gradually implemented. Therefore, stable house prices are still a big probability event in the future. Although the regional housing price has a strong driving force, the market will not fluctuate greatly under the policy guidance of "solving the prominent housing problems in big cities".

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