Water Skin: Surging Into 2015

If life deceives you,

Don't be sad, don't be impatient!

Calm is needed in melancholy days.

Believe it, happy days will come.

The heart will always face the future.

But now it is often melancholy.

Everything is instantaneous.

Everything will be over.

And the past,

It will become a warm memory.

This is Pushkin's poem. The title is "if life deceives you," at the beginning of the year, we are not thinking that life has deceived us, but that our heart has always been to the future, but now it is often melancholy.

It never seems to be so pressing for the arrival of the new year, even at the beginning of the century, because there are too many expectations waiting for us to verify in 2015.

China's economic growth will not rise steadily, will the 7% be the upper limit or the bottom line? Monetary policy is still insisting on turning left lights to the right or changing all the time. Whether China's stock market is a bull market across the year or a flash in the pan, the answers can only be found until 2015. They are mutually causal and mutually transformed. Resignation is a result. Seed results. If the Chinese style macro control has ended its historical mission in 2013, then the positive intervention in 2014 has given us a new turn. After all, the new normal is also necessary to take the initiative to mobilize the whole body or to invest all the children in order to make sure that it is not only a life attitude when people are in office.

China's economy has no answer. The world economy is much more suspenseous. "Black Swans" are dancing all over the world, and there are many words about the world. The most shocking thing is that China has become the pronoun of the world economy in the context of those prophets. If not, let us look at the "fabricated" from GE long.

Black Swan No. 1 looks most unlikely to happen, but it is disastrous to happen. China's GDP growth rate has dropped to 2%.

Black Swan two: impossible mission? Euro zone economic downturn.

Black Swan three: German bonds Rate of return Europe has been pushed back to the mire in the face of rising market?

Black Swan four: sunset in the Empire's dusk? Great political turmoil in Britain.

Black Swan five: black to the bottom! Dollar depreciation!

Black Swan six: the food crisis that nobody cares about.

Black Swan seven: RMB depreciated by 5% in 2015.

Black Swan eight: the Fed raised interest rates in the first half of the year, or even raised interest rates in the first quarter.

　　 China's economy Will it fall to 2%? If it is to be fulfilled, Barclay's Li Keqiang economics concluded in 2013. In Barclay's prediction, China's GDP decline will be 3%, but this is indeed an unlikely event. Similarly, the possibility of RMB depreciation of 5% exists, but the depreciation of the dollar has become a contradiction. Not to mention, the appreciation or depreciation of the renminbi is relative. In 2014, the RMB was depreciated against the US dollar, but it appreciated relative to other currencies, such as the euro. So, black Swan No. two and No. three are also a pair of contradictions. For zero, the probability of a single occurrence will not exceed 40%. Black swans No. five and No. eight are also contradictory to the US dollar. At the same time, there may be zero, which may be more than 50%. In particular, the Fed's interest rate increase is basically a definite event. The difference is only the difference between the first half and the second half of the month. In fact, it is not a black swan but a big white goose.

Before 2014, the biggest driving force for China's economic growth came from Investment Especially in real estate investment, real estate is the pillar industry of China's economy in the past ten years. Now the real estate industry has entered a period of adjustment, and the golden age has ended. Before 2014, the Chinese government was most worried about CPI. It was inflation. A pig could mess up China's economic policy. But now the situation is different. The price of crude oil futures is cut down, grain prices are cut down, PPI is declining year by year. Deflation has become the curse of the head of Dai Zaizheng's government. Is this hedging? If so, how should we grasp it?

In the book of Shuangcheng, Dickens said that this is the worst and the best era. We are all looking forward to a new round of reform dividends. We do not know that any reform is the choice of death. What is there to be gloomy about it? Everything is instantaneous, everything will pass away, and the past will become a pleasant memory.