The Appreciation Of RMB Is Different From Each Other's Advantages And Disadvantages.

Some members, officials and academics in the United States clamored for China to exert pressure, forcing the renminbi to appreciate, and Europe, China's neighbours, Japan and South Korea, as well as Latin America and Australia, which exported raw materials to China, came to a very different voice.

This is different from the situation that forced the appreciation of yen in that year, reflecting the status of economic relations in international relations.

Claiming that China's exports cause global economic imbalances is one of the main means of forcing the renminbi to appreciate.

According to this argument, the United States believes that by restraining China's exports through the appreciation of the renminbi, the global economy can be rebalanced.

The United States created this theory, the real intention is to draw the relevant countries to jointly pressure the RMB appreciation.

However, from the actual position of countries, the United States did not pull any "allies".

This is quite different from the situation that forced Japan to sign the Plaza Accord.

As the largest trading partner of China, the European Union is clearly the number one target of the United States, but the European Union has made it clear that it does not intend to raise the issue of RMB exchange rate to the political level.

The Financial Times reported on March 25th that Karel De Gucht, the EU trade commissioner, said that during his visit to China in April, he planned to consult with the Chinese government on several factors affecting trade (from footwear to foreign investment) and that the value of the renminbi was only one of the problems of.

"At the moment, this problem is not up to the political level in Europe," explains Teguh Hurt.

Germany, the core of the European Union, has made similar statements. German economic minister Bruederle (Rainer Bruederle) said on the 23 th that he hoped China could achieve full floating of the RMB exchange rate, but it was not easy for China to do so, and Germany fully understood it.

Even the United ally of the United Kingdom did not agree with the United States this time.

British Foreign Secretary Miliband told the media 23: "the British government has not taken a position on the issue of RMB valuation."

Compared with the vague attitude of European countries who neither want to disobey the United States nor hate to offend China, the attitude of China's neighboring countries is quite distinct.

Melnikov, vice president of the Central Bank of Russian Federation, stressed that the Russian side firmly supported China's RMB exchange rate policy when meeting with Chinese officials.

Noda Yoshihiko, Yoshihiko Noda of Japan's finance ministry, said that sanctions aimed at compelled China to allow the renminbi to rise were "undesirable", the financial times 25 reported on.

South Korea's attitude is slightly different.

South Korea's "Central Daily" said on the 16 day that if South Korea holds the idea of "stand by and sit on its feet" on the Sino US exchange rate dispute, it is equivalent to the fact that South Korea has not rid itself of the "small country's nature" and "no big country's future". We should strive to resolve the Sino US exchange rate dispute with the "Seoul consensus", but not unilaterally pressure China.

However, Pu Zhehuan Chul-hwan, a FKI official, broke the real plan for deciding the attitude of South Korea: "if the renminbi appreciates, it will weaken the competitiveness of Chinese products in terms of price competitiveness" (Park Chul-hwan).

In principle, this should be good news for Korea.

But in fact, it depends on how many Korean companies have factories in China and how much of their output in China is used for export. "

According to the Financial Times analysis, Japan and South Korea have built considerable manufacturing capacity in mainland China, which means they are taking a share from China's export boom.

Therefore, they actually hope that the RMB exchange rate will remain stable.

China's importing countries are reluctant to see the appreciation of the renminbi, which will mean that their exports will be reduced.

Reuters 24 days reported the Latin American countries' attitude towards the RMB exchange rate.

The article said that the Inter American Development Bank meeting held in Mexico had different views on the sensitive issue of RMB, or simply avoided it, even though the United States was brewing a more radical stance.

According to the article, a Canadian representative said his country had "opinions" about currency manipulation, and his assistants huddled together to emphasize the complexity of the issue.

However, officials from countries exporting commodities to China, such as the second largest copper producer in the world, are understatement in Peru.

Peru finance minister Aloisi said, "our policy is in great harmony with Asia, especially China. China is a very important business partner. We must strive to reduce exchange rate risk."

Why has the United States become a "loner" on the issue of RMB exchange rate, or even a response from the traditional ally of the European Union?

Li Xiaoning, a famous strategist and special researcher of the China Economic System Reform Research Association, said: "there are two major changes in the current international relations pattern. First, the layout of alliance relations has changed. Ideology is no longer an important basis for dividing the camps. Secondly, the principle of alliance has changed, and national security is no longer the only" topic at the head level ". The importance of economic relations has risen to at least as important as security.

The main reason for the EU's reluctance to join the United States to force the Renminbi revaluation coalition is that the yuan appreciated against the euro without forcing it.

Since the yuan is on the dollar, the yuan has been keeping up with the US dollar since the beginning of 2009, when the euro began to decline against the US dollar.

From December 2009 to now, the renminbi has appreciated more than 12% against the euro.

The trend of appreciation of the renminbi against the euro has in fact been significantly affected.

In 2009, when China's imports fell by 11.2% over the same period, the EU's exports to China increased by 4%.

In the 1~2 months of this year, China's exports increased by 31.4%, while imports grew by 63.6%. Import growth was significantly higher than export growth.

In the trade of Germany, the core of the European Union, China's exports to Germany increased by 34.4% in the 1~2 months of this year, but the total import from Germany increased by 39.9%.

According to the official statistics of the European Commission, the total export volume of the European Union in 2009 was 1 trillion and 93 billion euros, with a total import value of 1 trillion and 199 billion euros and a trade deficit of 105 billion 476 million euros.

Compared with the US $380 billion 700 million deficit, it is not "terror", so Europe has no power to follow the us to force the renminbi to appreciate.

From the point of view of the main import and export commodities of the European Union, the most important export commodities of the European Union are: Machinery (490 billion euros in 2008), chemical industry (129 billion euros in 2008), automobiles (110 billion euros in 2008), pharmaceuticals (69 billion 700 million euros in 2008), and civil aircraft (2008 45 billion 700 million euros). These commodities account for more than 80% of the total export volume of the EU, and all the individual statistics have maintained a high surplus.

The biggest deficit in the EU's import and export commodities is textiles and footwear, with an inverse balance of 44 billion 200 million euros in 2008.

It is not difficult to find out from the data that Europe's main export varieties are all products that Europe has advantages and China does not have advantages. In these respects, the EU and China economy has strong complementarity. Even if the RMB appreciates further, it will not bring much change to Europe's trade situation.

Even in Europe's huge deficit of textiles and footwear, the reason for its deficit is well known: a large part of European famous brand clothing and footwear is manufactured in China, but only sold back to Europe for European imports.

If the renminbi appreciates, it will actually result in less "Chinese goods", but higher prices of European "local" clothing.

Harvard University economic historian Neil Ferguson (Niall Ferguson) invented the word "Chimerica" (the United States) to describe Sino US economic relations: China desperately produced, the United States desperately consumed, resulting in China's huge trade surplus and the huge trade deficit of the United States.

China will import huge quantities of raw materials from the world for production, and the US will borrow from the world in order to consume, thus forming a China Centered global industrial economic cycle and an American centered global financial cycle.

The two major "cycles" constitute the core of the global economic system.

Although Europe is the center of the traditional international relations system, it has been marginalized to a large extent in the contemporary global economic system.

In 2009, the total import and export volume of the EU was only 20.9% of that of GDP, of which exports amounted to 9.97% of GDP.

This actually shows that the degree of "self integration" of the EU economy is far greater than its "globalization" level.

However, exports of high technology products account for a large proportion of the EU's exports which account for a small proportion of the overall economy.

Li Xiaoning told reporters that the EU is China's largest supplier of technology.

The biggest difference between EU China economic relations and Sino US economic relations lies in the fact that the United States regards China more as a "factory" and "market", and only wants to trade products with China.

Mobile phone is a typical case.

Europe imports a lot of mobile phones from China, but its brands such as NOKIA are actually produced in China.

As early as 80s, NOKIA set up R & D centers in China to pfer core technology to China.

By contrast, the US will not give iPhone core technology to China.

In this situation, what Europe really wants is the stability of the RMB exchange rate against the euro.

Similar to the situation in Europe, Japan and South Korea have also established a large number of production lines in China. In fact, some of China's exports are exported to Japan and South Korea. Therefore, Japan and South Korea have no intention to join the RMB appreciation of the United States.