The NDRC Denied More Stringent Policies To Regulate The Housing Market.

In May 17th, on the occasion of the "new country ten" full moon, a national development and Reform Commission was leading the relevant ministries and commissions to introduce a more stringent policy of real estate regulation and control, so that property stocks instantly fade. On that day, A shares plummeted 136 points, more than 5% of a long Yin line was the biggest decline in the A share market since this year.

Is the NDRC's stricter new deal true or false?

"This news is purely a matter of praise." Kong Jingyuan, director of the comprehensive reform department of the national development and Reform Commission, recently accepted the "China Times" interview, which confirmed that the NDRC was indeed working out a real estate plan, but the plan was only a regular plan in the 12th Five-Year plan, and the time for the introduction was also in the second half of next year.

Before and after this, another policy on property taxes was more obvious, with the most popular voice in Shanghai.

Huang Han Quan, director of the national development and Reform Commission's Industrial Research Institute in May 17th, made a clear statement to the "China Times" reporter: "no property tax is allowed within three years." What is mutually verified with this statement is that the State Administration of Taxation has made a public statement: the place does not have the right to explain the scope of property tax collection.

With the misunderstanding being clarified, the direction of market regulation is urgently needed. The time node is: inflation is approaching, the foundation of macroeconomic recovery is not solid, and the central high level is also saying that regulation and control are in a dilemma.

"Market regulation policy will enter policy calm period in a short period of time." Central Bank Research Bureau researcher Zou Pingzuo told this newspaper. More industry insiders, including the officials, said in an interview with our reporter that there was no new policy to control the property market in a short period of time.

Misreading the NDRC

"There is no new policy for the development and Reform Commission's property market. This is a matter of putting the real estate special plan of the" 12th Five-Year plan "in the investment department of the NDRC. Huang Han Quan directly expressed in an interview with our reporter.

The new property policy of the NDRC is based on a news in May 17th. On the same day, the media reported that the NDRC is taking the lead. A number of ministries, including the Ministry of housing, the Ministry of land and resources, and the China Banking Regulatory Commission, are involved in the formulation of a document to promote the healthy development of the real estate industry, and the strength and scope of the document will be greater than the "ten new countries" that have just been introduced recently.

As soon as the news came out, it immediately boarded the headlines of the major websites, and was interpreted by the market as a major negative. Despite the strong market reaction, the NDRC did not respond.

Is the development and Reform Commission a more stringent new deal? What will be more severe from the perspective of the NDRC? Is it necessary to limit investment and price? With many questions, our reporter interviewed many times, but the result was quite unexpected.

Kong Jingyuan explicitly answered the reporter's question: "the NDRC is indeed making a medium and long-term plan for real estate development, from the perspective of investment, mainly by the investment division."

"No such thing, we should ask the Ministry of housing." In May 20th, the China Times reporter told the national development and Reform Commission's fixed assets investment division whether the NDRC is taking the lead in formulating a more stringent market control policy.

However, in the evening of May 17th, the responsible person of the Ministry of housing and construction had carried out a positive rumor. Xie Hui, director of the Information Department of the general office of the Ministry of land and resources, said in an interview with the China Times reporter: "I don't know."

In fact, the so-called "new policy of the development and Reform Commission's property market" is the special plan for the real estate industry in the 12th Five-Year plan, which includes land system, commercial housing supply, affordable housing construction and so on. According to the procedures, the real estate industry's special planning is the "12th Five-Year plan" before the next National People's Congress will be passed.

"Time should be the second half of next year." Huang Hanquan deduced from the deliberation procedure of the plan. {page_break}

Property tax dystocia

The other thing that gets more and more is property tax. In the face of legal and technical barriers to property tax, property tax is considered by many to be the last killer.

In fact, one after another, the regulation of the property market is rarely seen on the property tax regulations, so that all parties have great hopes for the upcoming Shanghai version of the housing rules. It seems that the rumors about how to collect property tax and how to operate it is a foregone conclusion. As everyone knows, property tax levy is faced with two major problems.

"According to the Provisional Regulations of the People's Republic of China on real estate tax, it is necessary to expand the scope of Taxation to housing, which involves modifying the provisional regulations, and local governments have no power." Huang Hanquan believes that this is a legal problem that can not be overtaken by property taxes.

The technical level is also inoperable. "Urban property rights recognition, real estate assets assessment and other basic work has not been perfected." Zou Pingzuo thinks.

Huang Hanquan told reporters that this is only a superficial reason. The underlying reason is that levying property tax damages the interests of vested interests.

And in his first interview with reporters in May 17th, he said: "property tax will not be issued in at least three years." This is why Qingdao, Beijing, Shenzhen and other local property market regulation rules have not been involved in the real estate tax has made annotations.

So some investors told reporters: "officials holding multiple properties is a natural barrier for our investors to no longer worry about property taxes."

A dramatic scene has emerged. In view of the rumor that Shanghai intends to levy taxes on housing tenure, Niu Xinwen, director of the Information Office of the State Administration of Taxation, has only publicly declared after a long period of rumors that "according to the existing regulations, the legislative power of taxation is in the central government, that is to say, the central government will decide where to execute, and the local government has no right to introduce new taxes."

Chen Huai, a policy research center of the Ministry of housing and housing, told reporters that at present, no property tax has been heard, and whether property taxes should be levied should be decided by law. But Chen Huai's position is more regarded as the decision-making level in "Taiji".
　　
Short term no policy

What will be the next policy in the property market?

The capital ratio of real estate projects seems to be forgotten by policy, which is consistent with the purpose of this round of real estate regulation. Zou Pingzuo analysis said that raising the capital ratio of real estate projects is to limit investment in the real estate industry, which is equivalent to reducing supply, which will lead to the continued rise in housing prices. This is contrary to the direction of increasing supply and restraining demand. "Raising the proportion is also impossible."

Another tight policy is to raise interest rates. Zou Pingzuo said: "in the short term will not raise interest rates, interest rate depends on the trend of CPI, does not depend on real estate."

The CPI data released in April was 2.8%. From the data point of view, the macro-economy tends to be overheated.

However, Wang Jian, Secretary General of the China macroeconomic Association, believes that the package of economic stimulus policies has really played a role since the first half of 2009. It is expected that the marginal effect will begin to decrease in the first half of this year, and the trend of economic growth this year will be higher and lower. "In other words, the growth rate of investment and industry will gradually decline. Economic growth is still in the first place, and inflation is the second, so it is easy not to raise interest rates.

While the marginal effect of the policy is decreasing, the price of the real estate market does not fall, but the stock price has both shrunk.

"There are many difficulties faced by macroeconomic regulation and control." On the evening of May 13th, when Wen Jiabao visited Tianjin, he suggested that we should pay attention to the coordination and coordination of macroeconomic policies, prevent the negative effects of multiple policies, and always grasp the intensity of policies.

Is this a policy fine tuning signal? On the 17 day, Li Wei, deputy director of the SASAC, pointed out that macroeconomic policies may be fine-tuning at different stages, especially monetary policy and real estate regulation policies, which will have an impact on the production and operation of some industries and enterprises.

"Once the stock market and real estate are depressed, it will affect the growth of the real economy in turn." Like many people, Wang Jian expressed concern about the economy.

Based on this, Zou Pingzuo believes that the next major task of the relevant departments is to implement the existing real estate policy calm effect. "Property market regulation will enter a cooling off period in the future."

More people interviewed by our reporter believe that in the next period of time, in addition to the implementation of rules and regulations for all parts of the property market, there will be no new policies promulgated by the state ministries or even the State Council. Even the details of the rules do not have to be expected to exceed expectations.

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