In May, CPI Rose Slightly Or &Nbsp; Interest Rate Increases Were Expected To Fade.

As of last Friday, 25 Chinese and foreign institutions predicted an average of 3.1% of domestic CPI growth in May. The 25 organizations predicted a maximum of 5% and a minimum of 2.3%.

Insiders including Bank of China Governor Li Lihui believe that the central bank may slow up interest rates. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the central bank, reiterated during the meeting of the finance ministers and central bank governors of the group of twenty that the exit of the stimulus policy was mainly based on the domestic situation.

Inflation is less than expected in May.

In an interview with the media, Li Lihui said he believed that the central bank would increase interest rates, the key to the overall effect of macroeconomic regulation and control, especially the situation of rising prices. Judging from the current situation, the price inflation trend has dropped compared with March and April, and the central bank may slow down the interest rate increase.

Data show that the price of vegetables in China has dropped for 1 consecutive months, and prices of vegetables such as Chinese cabbage, spinach and tomatoes have been lower than or close to the same period last year.

Yu Jun, executive general manager and chief strategist of CITIC Securities Research Department, said: "from the current market expectations, the forecast value for CPI in May is basically between 3.0%~3.2%, but according to our observation and data tracking, the actual data is likely to be lower than expected. In May, the final year-on-year growth rate of CPI should be between 2.9%-3.0%, which is likely to alleviate the excessive worries of the current market for inflation and interest rate hike.

The forecast of Gao Hua Securities Research Report is basically the same as CITIC Securities. It is believed that the CPI growth rate in May will probably rise from 2.8% in April to 3%. "Although CPI's year-on-year growth and monthly annulus growth show that inflation pressures are still significant, the high frequency data released by the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of agriculture show that food prices continued to decline in May, which is consistent with the slowdown in the growth of real economic activity and the decline in inflation expectations." Gao Hua Securities believes.

Galaxy Securities senior economist Zuo Xiaolei (blog) believes that last year, China's rural income rose 8.5%, urban income rose 9.3%, the current CPI level of 2.8% is entirely within the limits of tolerance. She believes that at least in the second quarter, including the beginning of the third quarter, under the current international and domestic environment and interest rate policy, we can comprehensively judge that it is not very necessary to raise interest rates at present. However, we need to manage liquidity in real time, and constantly use quantitative tools as the situation changes.

Generally optimistic about exports

During the twenty Nation Conference, Zhou Xiaochuan said he had confidence in the EU and the ECB to resolve the crisis, and the European debt crisis would not have a great impact on China's exports.

In fact, 14 Chinese and foreign agencies predict that the average export growth rate in May will be 32.6%. The maximum predicted value is 37.5%, and the minimum prediction value is 28%.

CITIC Securities believes that according to the tracking and forecasting of ports and other data, the export growth rate in May is likely to exceed the current market expectations, reaching a level of 42% to 45%. Strong export data will not only ease the market's concern that Europe's sovereign debt crisis may weigh on China's exports, but will also provide new impetus for market stabilization and recovery.

From the whole year, the export situation may also be more optimistic. Bank of China believes that although the recent EU debt crisis has had a great impact on China's exports, it is expected that China's export performance will be better than expected in the future. In the 1~4 month of this year, the total export volume of the mainland to the EU increased by about 30.4% over the same period last year, and the export volume of the "five countries of Europe" (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) grew by about 32%.

BOC expects export growth to exceed 30% in the first half of this year. That is to say, even if exports to the EU decline by 20% in the second half of the year, exports to the EU will also maintain positive growth throughout the year. In addition, because the depreciation of the euro may lead to a relatively small appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, the export growth to the US will be more stable. Even if the EU has the worst case scenario (exports fell by 20% over the same period last year), the total annual export growth will be close to 20%, which will provide strong support for China's industrial output growth.