Analysis Of China'S Textile And Garment Export Market In The Second Half Of The Year

Worries after climbing new heights

On the first half of the customs statistics, although China's textile and clothing exports showed a slight oscillation in March, the export growth since April has continued: exports in May amounted to 16 billion 400 million US dollars, reaching the highest in the year and the highest in the past year, and the year-on-year increase in exports reached 33.5%; in June June, China's exports of textiles and clothing amounted to 18 billion 665 million US dollars, an increase of 2 billion 243 million US dollars from last month, an increase of 13.66%, an increase of 5 billion 183 million US dollars compared with the same period last year, with a growth rate of 33.83%.

However, such data failed to shake some economists' judgment of the trend of China's textile and clothing exports for the first time, and the related annual expected growth rate remained at around 10%.

Such a conservative forecast for professionals is mainly due to the fact that the momentum of growth in supporting data in the first half of this year is unlikely to drive export growth in the second half of the year.

Historically, before each exchange rate adjustment or before the export tax rebate rate was lowered, enterprises rushed to export to avoid loss of revenue.

In June 20th, when China launched the reform, some analysts pointed out that it was very likely that the enterprises would launch a surprise attack before the reform, so as to reduce the exchange losses, resulting in a sharp rise in June data.

In addition, due to the global economic recovery caused by the large number of foreign suppliers to replenishment stocks, export volume growth, and the rising prices of raw materials caused by the rising prices of raw materials, are the main reasons for the growth of export volume, coupled with the low base last year, which makes people lack confidence in the growth of the first half of the year. The industry generally believes that China's textile and garment export market is not stable in the second half of the year.

Many variables in the export market

Whether it is property data, or manufacturing and overall employment indicators, the recent US economic data continues to show that the US economic recovery is still lacking a solid foundation.

Economists believe that retail sales in the US may drop for the second consecutive month in June.

Although clothing chain stores and department store sales were on the rise in May, the increase was mainly due to discounts, and this sales had limited impact on overall retail sales.

In June, US industrial production will shrink for the first time this year.

At the same time, because consumers have no intention of spending, the bargaining space of producers will be limited.

Economists who have received interviews with mainstream media in the us predict that retail sales in May will be further reduced by 0.3% after the 1.3% slide in May, and industrial output is expected to decrease by 0.1% in June.

"Consumer spending is stagnant," said Brian Bethune, chief financial analyst at IHS Global Insight. "The growth of the US economy is not as strong as previously expected.

As long as the job market is not improving significantly and asset prices are still under heavy pressure, the negative news of economic downturns will emerge one after another. "

In addition, the vigorous rebound in exports is likely to lead to more trade friction.

A series of chain reactions triggered by the European debt crisis have been reflected in trade disputes.

A few days ago, when the European Union released its annual trade report, it pointed out that despite the gradual improvement of the global economy and the construction of trade barriers by some important trading partners, the risk of a new round of protectionism rising in the second half of 2010 due to the rising global unemployment rate still exists.

According to the report, in the 18 months ended June 2010, the EU's main G20 trading partners adopted 280 trade restrictions, although G20 countries had promised to cancel the measures as the global economy improved, but only a few of them were fulfilled.

The report points out that among the 30 main EU trading partners, exporters in Russia and Argentina have the most restrictions, and are mainly concentrated in textile, steel, automobile and agricultural products.

At the same time as the report was published, the new European organic product logo was introduced mandatory in July 1st and appeared on the packaging of organic food and beverages.

Although the voluntary principle is still applied to imported products, trade protectionists are likely to adopt more implicit measures to restrict the export products of some developing countries in the period of global economic recovery.

Foresight growth "ceiling"

As a result of the rapid growth in the first half of the year, people seem to have foreseen growth in the second half of the year.

The main export market is unstable, and there are many variables. It also waits for us not to be blindly optimistic about the continuous growth of export data.

For the second half of the year, there are still many constraints in China's export market. Textile and clothing exports are likely to face "ceiling" growth.

From the export market, China's exports to developed countries such as Europe, the United States, Japan and other developed countries showed a recovery growth in the first half of this year.

However, as the developed countries have not yet fully recovered from the financial crisis, China's exports to Europe and the United States are more often due to the replenishment of stocks by European and American enterprises. This behavior is a short-term behavior and lacks support from consumers' purchasing power. This determines that it is not realistic to hope that the main export markets such as Europe, the United States and Japan will achieve strong growth throughout the year.

At the same time, the RMB exchange rate "loosening" signs are becoming increasingly evident.

In June 22nd, the central parity of the US dollar against the RMB was quoted at 6.7980, which is the first time that the central parity of RMB against the US dollar has exceeded 6.80 in the past two years.

At present, the RMB has basically been linked to the US dollar, and the depreciation of the euro has forced the RMB to appreciate passively, which will further affect China's exports.

Because there is a certain lag, the adverse effect of RMB appreciation is likely to be reflected in the second half of the year. For textile and clothing products, which are very sensitive to price, the impact will be more obvious.

In addition, the current European debt crisis has forced the euro area countries to cut costs and cut consumption.

Considering the process cycle of textile trade, the weakness of EU's demand may not be pmitted to domestic textile enterprises until the second half of the year, and there may be a downturn in exports to the EU in the second half of the year.

On the whole, in addition to hoping for the stability of relevant policies, the trade between China and ASEAN countries is becoming more and more close with the start of the China ASEAN Free Trade Area.

In 1~5 months, China's textile and clothing exports to ASEAN increased by 41.4%, and this trend of substantial growth in other markets led by ASEAN is more likely to continue throughout the year.

In addition, China's textile export enterprises can also alleviate conflicts by developing new products and reducing procurement costs. Some enterprises say that although the products that have been ordered are difficult to raise, the price of newly developed products is still 5%~10%.