News That "12Th Five-Year" GDP Target Growth Or 7%-8%

The Beijing West Hotel, which is located in the west of Beijing West Railway Station, is full of joy.

October 15th, the seventeen session of the Communist Party of China

According to a person from the national development and Reform Commission, the recommendations set at this meeting will provide a basis for the 12th Five-Year plan outline, which has been preliminarily completed and entered the stage of embellishment.

Once the above recommendations are passed, the future outline will be adopted by the National People's Congress in March 5th next year, and will become a blueprint for the next five years.

This person disclosed that "12th Five-Year" period is expected to weaken.

Cai Zhizhou, deputy director of the China economic accounting research center of Peking University, believes that there is indeed no need to consider the issue of economic growth during the "12th Five-Year" period. "GDP" is not necessary to emphasize too much during the '12th Five-Year' period. Even if we emphasize structural adjustment all the time, the economy will still grow rapidly.

He told reporters about the "12th Five-Year plan" set of indicators.

According to his calculations, the per capita GDP will reach about US $4000 this year. According to the requirement of doubling per capita GDP in 10 years, the annual economic growth rate will be 7%-8%.

Considering the factors of RMB appreciation, GDP per capita is expected to sprint to US $8000-1 in 2020.

But even so, this is still the 80 largest in the world, and it is only the world average, so it may still be the largest developing country in the world.

An expert from the national development and Reform Commission's macro academy told reporters that it is expected that the speed determined during the "12th Five-Year" period will be "seven up eight times", that is, the annual GDP growth rate is between 7%-8%.

In accordance with the requirements of realizing the well-off society in an all-round way in 2020, the GDP per person will be doubled again in 10 years, and it will only need 7.2% per year.

"Since the" 13th Five-Year "economic growth rate may decline further, the" 12th Five-Year "growth rate can be set higher, so that it can still adopt the" 11th Five-Year "rate of 7.5%, but considering the local quota is higher than the national level, the country can also set a little lower.

The expert said.

It is reported that the average annual economic growth rate of "fifteen" is 7%, and the actual growth rate is 9.5%.

The speed of 11th Five-Year is 7.5%, which is more than 10%.

Wang Qian, chief economist of J.P. Morgan, issued a report that the G-3 economy was weak in the medium term economic growth and the focus of economic growth shifted to domestic consumption in the context of China's uncertain export prospects.

For this reason, the Chinese economy is unlikely to respond to double-digit growth since recent cycles in the next five years. This view has been widely agreed.

The focus of China's economic growth has shifted to adjusting the growth mode instead of accelerating the pace of growth. Therefore, the actual GDP growth target of the twelfth five year plan is different from that of the eleventh annual growth target set by the National People's Congress held in March, which may remain unchanged from the 7.5% set of the eleventh five year plan.

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Li Xinyun endorsed this view.

As a professor of Shandong Economic University, he dedicated this year to the national development and Reform Commission, Shandong and other provinces to measure the "12th Five-Year" indicators.

As a result, the actual economic growth in China will reach an average of 9% during the "12th Five-Year" period, lower than the growth rate of more than 10% in 11th Five-Year.

The reason is that the central and Western economies are developing rapidly, and there are still many investment projects in the whole country, but the growth rate of investment has slowed down a little.

And the idea of accelerating the pace of economic development in the region is as great as in the past "11th Five-Year". For example, the growth rate of 12th Five-Year in 3 provinces and cities will reach 10%, 11% and 12% respectively.

In particular, the growth rate of 2 municipalities is relatively high, at 11%-12%.

But Li Xinyun thought the difficulty was not great.

"The base of the western provinces is low, the space for investment and the space for economic growth is very large. 12% is the speed of planning, and the actual growth rate is faster."

He said.

Structural adjustment as the main direction

A national development and Reform Commission told reporters that the current "12th Five-Year plan" proposal even published, the actual planning indicators are not many, probably only GDP, energy consumption, carbon emissions and other core indicators, more indicators may have to wait for the "12th Five-Year" planning outline announced.

But it is certain that structural adjustment will be a central task.

Such adjustment is very important.

Yang Yiyong, director of the Institute of social affairs of the national development and Reform Commission, pointed out that structural adjustment has been emphasized in the past few decades. Now that the word is good, the combination of good and fast, we need to solve some problems of deteriorating structure.

This includes industrial structure, income structure, urban and rural structure and so on.

For example, the income gap between urban and rural residents is still widening, but the widening trend of this gap has slowed down.

He pointed out that despite good employment, income still needs further improvement.

At the same time, employment can not only require quantity, but the quality of employment still needs to be improved.

"They need decent jobs, green jobs."

Yang Yiyong said at the October 12th China economic situation analysis conference.

Data show that in the first half of this year, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 9757 yuan, a real increase of 7.5% after deducting price factors.

The per capita cash income of rural residents was 3078 yuan, a real increase of 9.5% after deducting price factors.

The latter growth rate is higher than the former, but the income gap between urban residents and rural residents has not decreased due to the large income base of urban residents.

An expert from the China Society of macroeconomics pointed out that during the period of 12th Five-Year, the driving force of China's economic growth will change, that is, more reliance on domestic demand growth, especially consumption, rather than exports relying on external demand.

From a regional perspective, it is more dependent on the Midwest to accelerate growth rather than the East.

From the perspective of industrial structure, we should rely more on services rather than agriculture.

From the perspective of income growth, national income has increased the income of residents rather than the rapid increase of government and enterprises' incomes.

From the perspective of specific investment, it depends more on high-tech industries and social investment, rather than on high energy consumption and other overcapacity industries.

This shift is also related to changes in the international situation.

Fan Jianping, director of the Economic Forecasting Department of the state information center, admits that as China's increasing investment is bound to turn into more products in the next few years, these products will not necessarily have a market in the international market.

In recent years, the intensification of trade protectionism is proof that those high energy consuming products will be difficult to have international market once the western countries implement carbon tariffs.

"If we do not change the way again, we will not be able to say that. Next year, the most important structural problem of the economy is that it will be unsustainable if we implement the temporary power rationing now, in order to achieve the goal of saving energy."

Fan Jianping said.