Cotton Prices Are Rising In A Straight Line, And The Mode Of Operation Will Change.

Last Friday, Zheng cotton The funds began to flee. American cotton Closing limit. Can the cotton market continue to rise? Let's try to find the answer from the aspects of cotton price trend, national policy and dumping, and the acquisition of new cotton.

First, cotton prices will rise in a straight line, and the mode of operation will change.

Beginning in August 2010, the international and domestic cotton prices have changed the trend of small step up, and shifted to a "90 degree" angle. From the US cotton futures contract December monthly chart, the price of US cotton rose by 39.48% from 78.77 cents / pound in August to 109.87 cents / pound in October 15th. From the Zhengzhou cotton CF1105 contract monthly chart, Zheng cotton rose by 42.95% from 16950 yuan / ton in August to 24230 yuan / ton in October 15th.

Cotton spot price and futures price "straight 90 degrees" rise way is similar. representative international The Cotlook A cotton price index of spot prices in cotton market also rose rapidly. By the year October 14th, the spot price index of international cotton showed 124.60 cents / pound. The 328 price index, representing the spot price of cotton in China, rose sharply in the vicinity of 19000 yuan / ton, and broke through three main prices, 20000, 22000 and 24000, in October 15th, 24177 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of price trend, after a sharp rise in the first half of August, September and the first half of October, cotton has gained a lot of profits. It is expected that short-term profit making will make the price rise before the price changes. Judging from the trend of October 15th, after the 24680 high opening of Zheng cotton, there were 24286 hands in many short positions in just 3 minutes. On the same day, the reduction of positions amounted to 74994 hands, indicating a large outflow of funds. US cotton has a warning effect. Last Friday, the US cotton market opened at the highest price of 119.80 cents / pound after the US Civil War and closed down at the close of profit. From technical signals, Zheng cotton's "black cloud top" and the US cotton's "bearish swallow" form show the signal that the market needs to be adjusted. Whether the capital market will continue to flow out is the key to adjusting the depth. Judging from the contest between the two sides, oscillation will become the trend of the later stage.

Two, the NDRC meeting affects market psychology and has no substantial pressure on prices.

On the morning of October 14th, the national development and Reform Commission held a joint meeting on cotton macro-control, further analyzing the situation and studying the measures to stabilize the cotton market. Through this meeting, the NDRC warned the speculators not to push up the price of the cotton market. The relevant departments should work together in accordance with their respective division of labour to rectify the market order, severely crack down on malicious speculation, adulteration, and so on, and disrupt the market order, monitor key enterprises, strictly investigate irregularities, and make other regulatory plans.

This is followed by the national cotton work teleconference held in September 27th, and the relevant state departments held a meeting again to emphasize the high concern for cotton prices. Judging from the effect of the two meetings before and after, the convening of the conference had an impact on market psychology, but there was no substantial suppression of cotton prices. From the market price trend after the conference, the cotton futures CF1105 contract was adjusted slightly at 22000 yuan / ton in September 27th after the national cotton teleconference was held, and cotton prices resumed upward trend again in September 30th. In October 14th, the NDRC held a meeting in the morning to warn speculators against malicious speculation. In the afternoon, the CF1105 contract for cotton futures was responded to the price limit. This shows that without effective and effective regulation and control, public opinion can not change the rigid gap of cotton supply, which is the reason why conference control has no effect.

Three, the national dumping store close to the end, the deal is hot to stimulate cotton prices.

From August 10th to October 15th, the total amount of cotton put into the market was 901771 tons, and the actual turnover was 892171 tons, with a turnover rate of 98.9%, and 89% of the plan was completed.

From the transaction rate, nearly 100% of the turnover reflects the market demand and its strong. Judging from the time of auction, the auction mode of bidding transactions, the competition among enterprises, the lengthening of auction time, and the daily dumping and storage often take more than ten hours. In October 15th, on the same day, the store was closed from 14:00 to 15:30 the next day, which lasted for 25.5 hours. From the perspective of dumping and storage, as of October 15th, the planned sale of 1 million tons of state cotton has been close to 900 thousand tons, and the remaining 100 thousand tons will be disposed of in the next 3 working days. According to the estimated reserves of 300 thousand to 400 thousand tons of state-owned cotton remaining in the market, the possibility that the country will continue to throw away the stock market is very small. The demand for cotton will shift to new cotton.

From the effect of throwing and storing, the effect of throwing cotton in the national reserve is to allow cotton to be available before the new cotton is listed. At present, this effect is basically achieved. China's new cotton can be supplied to the market by the end of October. However, the negative effect of dumping is also very obvious. The way of bidding has kept the auction price high, which indirectly stimulated the rise of cotton prices. When the State Reserve threw 1 million tons of cotton, the remaining cotton in the country was stretched to the limit, and there was no effective way to control the subsequent market.

Four, seed cotton purchase prices continue to rise, the market game is not yet over.

This year, the purchase price of seed cotton has risen all the way. From 9 and 1 2010 to October 15th, the purchase price of new cotton 328 grade seed cotton rose from 4 yuan / jin to 5.71 yuan / Jin, and the price of 328 grade lint was 24877 yuan / ton.

Faced with the above prices, cotton farmers and cotton enterprises have different mentality. Cotton farmers are reluctant to sell. In the context of rising cotton production costs and cotton reduction, cotton farmers are reluctant to sell cotton and expect prices to rise further. The cotton picking enterprises are in a dilemma, and the price is too high for them to open up, so it is difficult for enterprises to digest them. If cotton is not purchased, cotton can not be used in hand, and production can not continue.

From the perspective of enterprises, the rising price of cotton is the consensus of the market. What the enterprise can not accept is cotton price "straight 90 degrees" rapid rise. In the era of high cotton prices, large and medium-sized enterprises are more capable of dealing with prices than those of small businesses. The price of downstream brand clothing is stronger than that of ordinary clothing. Therefore, cotton prices must not fall because small businesses can not afford high cotton prices. It can be seen from the transaction price and turnover rate of throwing and storing that there are a lot of enterprises that can buy cotton at high price in the fierce competition. The market's ability to digest the high cotton price should be treated with an optimistic attitude.

Comprehensive analysis, in the short term, there is a need to adjust the cotton price rise, but cotton prices will not plummet. Under tight supply and strong demand, domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate.