Summary Of The Textile Industry Prosperity Index Report In The Three Quarter Of 2010

I. overall prosperity

Prosperity: in the three quarter of 2010, the prosperity index of the textile industry in China was 101 points (the growth level of =100 in 2003), up 1.1 points from the previous quarter, continuing the steady and rising trend since the two quarter of last year.

After excluding the random factors, the textile industry's prosperity index is slightly higher, which is 101.2 points (see the blue curve of the textile industry's prosperity index chart), which shows that the three quarter's random factors play a major role in the policy factors which have a sustained positive impact.

2010

After excluding the random factors, the prosperity index of clothing manufacturing industry is slightly lower, which is 98.2 points (see the blue curve of the garment manufacturing industry prosperity index chart).

In the three quarter of 2010, the prosperity index of the China chemical fiber industry was 100.3 points (the growth rate of =100 in 2005), a slight increase of 0.1 points from the previous quarter.

After excluding the random factors, the index of the chemical fiber industry has a slightly higher prosperity index, which is 100.7 points (see the blue curve of the index of China's chemical fiber industry).

Early warning: the textile industry early warning index has been pferred to the "yellow light district".

In the three quarter, the early-warning index of China textile industry was 120 points, up 6.7 points from the previous quarter.

The trend map shows that the textile industry early warning index has experienced high volatility after several consecutive quarters of rapid rebound. Now it has entered the "yellow light district" where the economy is running hot.

The warning index of clothing manufacturing industry is maintained at the "green light district".

In the three quarter, the clothing manufacturing industry early-warning index was 106.7 points, a callback from the previous quarter, and still maintained in the "green light zone" which indicates the normal operation of the economy.

The warning index of chemical fiber industry has rebounded at a high level.

The early warning index of the chemical fiber industry in the three quarter was 130 points, up 13.3 points from the previous quarter. It has entered the "yellow light district" where the economy is running hot.

The sharp rise in the early warning index of the chemical fiber industry is mainly due to a strong rebound in the index of fixed assets investment in the chemical fiber industry.

Business boom: in the three quarter, the business climate index of the textile industry was 128.9 points, up 2.8 points from the previous quarter, continuing the upward trend since the beginning of last quarter.

In the three quarter, the business climate index of garment manufacturing enterprises was 146.8 points, a sharp increase of 6.3 points from the previous quarter. After the sharp rise in the business climate index of the previous quarter, the index continued to continue upward trend in the current quarter.

In the three quarter, the business climate index of chemical fiber industry was 134.5 points, a slight increase of 0.6 points from the previous quarter.

Lights: in the three quarter of 2010, the early-warning lamp of the textile industry was pformed from "green" to "yellow" and entered the "yellow light district" which indicated that the economy was running too hot.

Among the 10 indicators of textile industry early-warning index (excluding seasonal factors and reservations of random factors), there are 5 indicators in the "green light" area, namely, textile industry exports, employees, sales of products, total investment in fixed assets and net receivables (reverse); there are 3 indicators in the "red light district", namely, profit composition index, product ex factory price index and finished product capital occupation (reverse); there are 1 indicators in the "yellow light district", that is, the total textile industry tax; 1 indicators in the "blue light district", that is, the textile production index.

From the change of the lights, the 2 indicators of the lantern increase, that is, the total amount of tax from "green" to "yellow", the total investment in fixed assets from "light blue" to "green"; the remaining 8 indicators, namely, production synthesis index, export volume, number of employees, profit composite index, product sales income, product price index, capital occupied (reverse), accounts receivable net (reversal) of the lamp to maintain the status quo.

The above results show that the overall production and operation of the textile industry continues to improve.

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In the three quarter of 2010, the early-warning lamp of the garment manufacturing industry continued to stay in the "green light district".

Among the 10 indicators of the early-warning index of clothing manufacturing industry (excluding seasonal factors and retaining random factors), there are 6 indicators in the "green light" area, namely, clothing export volume, gross profit, product sales revenue, total tax amount, total investment in fixed assets and net receivables (reversal). There are 1 indicators in the "red light district", that is, the capital occupation (reversal) of finished products in clothing manufacturing industry; 2 indicators are located in the "yellow light district", that is, clothing production and producer price index; 1 indicators are located in the "blue light district", that is, the number of employees in garment manufacturing industry.

From the change of the lamp number, the 2 indicators are "yellow" to "green", that is, the total profit of clothing manufacturing industry and the sales revenue of products. The remaining 8 indicators, namely, output, export volume, factory price index, number of employees, capital occupation (reverse), total tax amount, total investment in fixed assets and net receivables (reversal) remain unchanged.

On the whole, the upward trend of production and operation in garment manufacturing industry has slowed down, and the development of the industry tends to be stable.

In the three quarter of 2010, the warning light of the China chemical fiber industry changed from "green" to "yellow" and turned into a "yellow light district" which indicated that the economy was running too hot.

According to the 10 indicators of the early-warning index of chemical fiber industry (excluding seasonal factors and reservations of random factors), there are 4 indicators in the "green light" area, namely, chemical fiber production, number of employees, product sales revenue and net receivables (reversal); there are 3 indicators in the "red light district", namely, export volume, total investment in fixed assets and producer price index; there are 3 indicators in the "yellow light district", that is, the capital occupation (reverse), total profit and total tax amount of finished products in chemical fiber industry.

Judging from the change of lights, the lantern number of the 3 indicators is raised, the capital occupied (reverse) and the total tax amount of the finished products are changed from "green" to "yellow". The total investment in fixed assets is changed from "green" to "red". The remaining 7 indicators, namely, output, export volume, number of employees, total profit, product sales revenue, factory price index and net receivables (reversal) continue to remain unchanged.

On the whole, the overall situation of production and operation of chemical fiber industry in the three quarter continues to improve, and the industry has a good momentum of development.

Two. Production, operation and investment status

Production: textile industry production index declined slightly.

In the three quarter of 2010, the textile production index of China's textile industry was 99.9 points, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 0.1 points.

From the trend chart, the textile industry production composite index has increased steadily since the two quarter of 2010 after 4 consecutive quarters of year-on-year rise.

Excluding the random factors, the textile production index (see the blue curve) in the three quarter was 100.1 points, down 0.9 points from the previous quarter, slightly higher than the textile production index which did not exclude random factors.

The growth rate of clothing output slowed sharply last year.

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, in the three quarter of 2010, China's clothing output was 7 billion 230 million, an increase of 15.2% over the same period last year, a year-on-year growth rate of 65.4 percentage points lower than the previous quarter, a 5.5% increase in the chain, and a 4.5 percentage point increase in the chain growth rate compared with the previous quarter.

Chemical fiber production growth declined.

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the output of chemical fiber in China was 7 million 875 thousand tons in the three quarter of 2010, an increase of 9.8% over the same period last year, representing a 3 percentage point decrease from the previous quarter, a 1.7% increase in the chain and a 2.3 percentage point increase in the chain growth rate compared with the previous quarter.

Under the influence of energy conservation, emission reduction and elimination of backward production capacity, the production and cooling of the chemical fiber industry in the fourth quarter will be cold, and the downward pressure on production will be greater.

Practitioners:

In the three quarter of 2010, the number of employees in the textile industry was 5 million 952 thousand, an increase of 1.7% over the same period last year. The growth rate was 0.8 percentage points higher than that of the previous quarter, showing a steady upward trend.

In the three quarter of 2010, the number of employees in garment manufacturing industry was 4 million 103 thousand, an increase of 1.7% over the same period last year, representing a 0.2 percentage point increase over the previous quarter.

In the three quarter of 2010, the number of employees in the chemical fiber industry was 419 thousand, a decrease of 1 thousand from the previous quarter, an increase of 2.6% over the previous year, representing a 1.8 percentage point increase from the previous quarter.

Exit:

After initial seasonal adjustment, the export volume of the textile industry reached US $57 billion 350 million in the three quarter of 2010, reaching a record high, an increase of 29.1% over the previous year, up 15.3 percentage points from the previous quarter and a 40.6% increase of the same quarter.

In the three quarter of 2010, the export volume of clothing was 38 billion 640 million US dollars, up 26.1% from the same period last year, basically returning to the historical average growth level. The year-on-year growth rate was 20 percentage points faster than that of the previous quarter.

After initial seasonal adjustment, the export volume of chemical fiber industry was 4 billion 910 million US dollars in the three quarter of 2010, an increase of 32.4% over the same period last year. The year-on-year growth rate was 1.7 percentage points faster than that of the previous quarter. The growth rate of the chemical fiber industry was 13%.

Sale:

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the sales revenue of textile industry was 735 billion 170 million yuan in the three quarter of 2010, an increase of 23.5% over the same period last year, representing a 1.7 percentage point increase from the previous quarter, a 11.8% increase in the chain and a 4.3 percentage point increase in the ring than in the previous quarter.

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the sales revenue of clothing manufacturing industry was 298 billion 170 million yuan in the three quarter of 2010, an increase of 19% over the same period last year, representing a 7.1 percentage point increase over the previous quarter, a 12.5% increase in the chain, and a 3.5 percentage point increase over the previous quarter.

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the sales revenue of chemical fiber industry in the three quarter of 2010 was 124 billion 70 million yuan, up 18.8% from the same period last year. The year-on-year growth rate dropped 8.9 percentage points, the growth rate was 2.8%, and the growth rate of the chain was down 8.9 percentage points from the previous quarter.

Total profit:

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the total profit of the textile industry in the three quarter of 2010 was 34 billion 640 million yuan, an increase of 42.3% over the same period last year, a year-on-year growth rate of 17.8 percentage points lower than the previous quarter. The growth rate of the textile industry was 18.5%, and the growth rate of the chain rose by 14.7 percentage points from the previous quarter.

Compared to the same period, the growth rate of the chain has dropped considerably.

It is worth noting that the sales profit margin (gross profit / product sales revenue) of textile industry increased from 4.4% in the previous quarter to 4.7% in the current quarter, up 0.3 percentage points.

However, compared with the total sales profit margin of 6% in the three quarter, it is still at a low level, but it is still at a relatively high level compared with the average profit margin of the textile industry from 3% to 4%.

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In the three quarter of 2010, the total profit of garment manufacturing industry was 13 billion 520 million yuan, up 21.5% from the same period last year. The year-on-year growth rate was 17.4 percentage points lower than the previous quarter, and the growth rate was 10.8%.

Garment manufacturing sales profit margin (gross profit / product sales revenue) was 4.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter.

But it is still at a high level compared with the average profit rate of 3% to 4% of the textile industry.

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the total profit of chemical fiber industry in the three quarter of 2010 was 6 billion 210 million yuan, an increase of 490 million yuan compared with the previous quarter.

Tax:

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the total tax in the textile industry in the three quarter of 2010 was 19 billion 600 million yuan, an increase of 27.4% over the same period last year, representing a 1.7 percentage point decrease from the previous quarter, a 12.7% increase of the quarter, and a 4.8 percentage point increase from the previous quarter.

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the total tax of garment manufacturing industry in the three quarter of 2010 was 8 billion 120 million yuan, an increase of 28.1% over the same period last year. The growth rate was 0.7 percentage points faster than the previous quarter, and the growth rate was 11.9%, reversing the decline in the previous quarter.

In the three quarter of 2010, the total tax amount of the chemical fiber industry was 2 billion 580 million yuan, up 35.4% from the same period last year. The year-on-year growth rate was 25.3 percentage points faster than the previous quarter. The annulus growth rate was 47.7%, and the growth rate of the chain increased by 40.6 percentage points over the previous quarter.

Investment:

In the three quarter, the total investment in fixed assets and the year-on-year growth rate of different sectors of the textile industry, namely the textile industry, clothing manufacturing industry and chemical fiber industry, rose to varying degrees.

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the total investment in fixed assets of textile industry in the three quarter of 2010 was 67 billion 420 million yuan, an increase of 29.5% over the same period last year. The growth rate of the fixed assets increased by 14.7 percentage points over the previous quarter.

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the total investment in fixed assets of garment manufacturing industry in the three quarter of 2010 was 40 billion 470 million yuan, an increase of 29.1% over the same period last year. The growth rate of the fixed assets increased by 10.4 percentage points over the previous quarter.

Through the preliminary season adjustment, the total investment in fixed assets of chemical fiber industry was 13 billion 40 million yuan in the three quarter of 2010, a year-on-year increase of 78.1%, and a significant increase of 44.4 percentage points compared with the previous quarter.

Price:

In the three quarter of 2010, the export price of textile products increased by 8.6% compared with the same period last year, or 1.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous quarter, a record high.

Since the beginning of this year, the cost of raw materials in China's textile industry has increased substantially, driving up the price of raw materials such as cotton yarn, raw silk and cotton fabrics.

In the three quarter of 2010, the price of garment manufacturing products increased by 1.3% compared with the same period last year, or 0.5 percentage points from the previous quarter.

With the constant pressure of cost pressure, the price of garment manufacturing products will continue to rise in the four quarter.

In the three quarter of 2010, the factory price of chemical fiber industry increased by 10.5% compared with the same period last year, or 5.1 percentage points lower than that of the previous quarter.

Accounts receivable:

In the three quarter of 2010, the net receivables in the textile industry amounted to 185 billion 680 million yuan, up 13.1% from the same period last year, representing an increase of 1.5 percentage points over the previous quarter.

Although the net receivables in the textile industry continued to increase in the three quarter, the turnover of accounts receivable in the three quarter (90 * average accounts receivable / quarterly sales revenue) decreased from 22.1 days in the previous quarter to 21.8 days in the current quarter, indicating that the cash withdrawal rate of the whole industry has increased slightly.

In the three quarter of 2010, the net receivables of garment manufacturing industry amounted to 86 billion 30 million yuan, up 14.4% from the same period last year, representing a 1.2 percentage point decrease from the previous quarter.

The receivable turnover days in the three quarter (90 * average accounts receivable / quarterly sales revenue) were 10.5 days, 6.7 days less than the previous quarter. This shows that the cash withdrawal rate of the industry has accelerated significantly, and the liquidity of enterprise funds has increased significantly.

In the three quarter of 2010, the net accounts receivable of chemical fiber industry was 21 billion 880 million yuan, an increase of 20.4% over the same period last year, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous quarter.

The receivable turnover days in the three quarter (90 * average accounts receivable / quarterly sales revenue) rose from 14.3 days in the previous quarter to 15.5 days in the current quarter, indicating that the cash withdrawal rate of the chemical fiber industry has slowed down and the liquidity of the enterprises has weakened.

Capital appropriation of finished products:

As at the end of the three quarter of 2010, the total expenditure of finished products in textile industry was 115 billion 860 million yuan, down 2.6% from the same period last year.

As exports and domestic demand continue to flourishing, the downstream enterprises still have great demand for textile raw materials, to a certain extent, promote the sales of textile products.

As of the end of the three quarter of 2010, the expenditure of finished products in apparel manufacturing industry was 52 billion 430 million yuan, up 5.5% from the same period last year, and the growth rate was 4.8 percentage points higher than that of the previous quarter.

At the end of the three quarter of 2010, the occupied capital of finished products in chemical fiber industry was 22 billion 610 million yuan, an increase of 20.7% over the same period last year, a sharp decrease of 15.9 percentage points from the previous quarter.

As cotton prices continue to be high, some enterprises purchase Dacron staple fiber and viscose fiber products instead of cotton yarn, to a certain extent, promote the sales of chemical fiber products, reduce inventory, but speed up the pace of the upgrading of some chemical fiber products.

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Deficit side:

In the three quarter of 2010, the loss of the textile industry was 13.8%, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points, and the coverage of the deficit companies was further narrowed.

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the total loss of the loss making enterprises in the textile industry amounted to 1 billion 130 million yuan in the three quarter of 2010, down 34.6% from the same period last year.

In the three quarter of 2010, the loss of garment manufacturing industry was 18.8%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points, and the coverage of loss making enterprises was narrowed.

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the total loss of garment manufacturing enterprises in the three quarter of 2010 was 550 million yuan, down 7% from the same period last year.

In the three quarter of 2010, the loss of the chemical fiber industry was 13.4%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points, and the coverage of deficit companies continued to narrow.

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the total loss of chemical fiber industry in the three quarter of 2010 was 500 million yuan, an increase of 280 million yuan from the previous quarter.

Three. Anticipation and suggestion

At present, China's textile industry is facing multiple pressures.

On the international side, the slow pace of global economic recovery has made China's textile industry face challenges. In the domestic market, the cost of textile raw materials has continued to rise, and the elimination of backward production capacity and the arduous task of energy saving and emission reduction have increased pressure on the recovery of textile industry.

The textile industry is expected to have greater downward pressure in the four quarter.

The textile industry has always been an important pillar industry of our economy, and also an important position to absorb employment. It is of great significance to guarantee the good development environment of the textile industry and ensure the pformation, upgrading and stable development of the textile industry.

For this reason:

First, timely adjust the supply of cotton and stabilize the price of raw material market.

In view of the current shortage of cotton, we should do a good job in importing and throwing cotton, ensuring the supply of cotton market and stabilizing cotton market and cotton price.

Two, actively adjust the preferential tax policy to ensure the steady development of the textile industry.

We should continue to implement the export tax rebate policy for textile industry, and further increase the export rebate rate of textile products when necessary, and ease the pressure of textile enterprises to survive.

Three, all sectors of the textile industry must have a sense of crisis and urgency, and actively respond to challenges from all sides.

We should turn pressure into a driving force, speed up pformation and upgrading and technological innovation, raise the level of production and operation and management, enhance the vitality and profitability of enterprises, and lay the foundation for sustainable development.

Notes:

(1) textile industry includes textile industry, garment manufacturing industry and chemical fiber industry.

Among them, the textile industry only refers to the major categories of textile industry in the classification of the national economy, excluding the production of chemical fiber and clothing manufacturing in the broad textile industry; the clothing manufacturing industry refers to the textile and garment manufacturing industry in the classification of the national economy, which refers to the activities of tailoring tailor made men's and women's garments and children's garments, including garments made of non self produced raw materials and clothing made in fixed production areas, and the chemical fiber industry in the classification of the national economy.

2. In 2003, the early-warning lamp in the textile industry was basically in the green light area, and was relatively stable. Therefore, it became the base year of the textile industry prosperity index.

3. In 2005, the early-warning lights of the garment manufacturing industry were basically in the green light area, relatively stable, and therefore became the base year of the clothing manufacturing industry prosperity index.

(4) in 2005, the early-warning lamp in chemical fiber industry was basically in the green light area, and was relatively stable, so it was the base year for the prosperity index of chemical fiber industry.

Reverse index, also called reverse index, has a reverse effect on the operation of the industry.

The lower the index value is, the better the industry is, and vice versa.

Preliminary seasonal adjustment refers to the elimination of factors such as Spring Festival holidays, and does not exclude the influence of irregular elements.

The lamp number diagram shows that the early warning lamp number is the state of some important indicators that describe the development of the industry by means of traffic lights. The red light is too fast (overheating), the yellow light is fast (partial heat), the green light is normal and stable, the light blue lamp shows slow (partial cold), the blue light indicates too slow (undercooling), and the different index is given to the single indicator lamp, and the comprehensive warning index aggregated by it is also shown by the 5 lamp areas, meaning the same as above.