Let The Healthy Balance Of The Industrial Chain Become The Norm.

The three carriages renewed their strength.

"Chemical fiber, especially

At the current polyester conference hosted by China Chemical Fiber Association and China chemical fiber General Corporation, Shanghai Sinon net and British Thailand Rong company, Zhang Youding, the representative of Sinopec Chemical sales branch, proved the microcosmic experience of the enterprises with macroscopical data. This year 1~9 months, polyester production increased to 17 million tons, and the growth rate exceeded 15%. In 1~9 month, the output of polyester reached 18 million 250 thousand tons, and the growth rate was over 14.5%.

Meanwhile, the average price of 1~10 products increased by 25% over the same period last year, and the price of polyester staple fibers, which has long been in decline, has seen a higher price increase.

The processing area of polyester products has been significantly enlarged, and the industry efficiency has recovered. From upstream PTA to slicing, polyester, and downstream polyester products, all the links in the industrial chain have achieved the best level this year.

Faced with such a market, everyone is asking why.

Some representatives including Duan Xiaoping, President of China Chemical Fiber Association, analyzed that the order of "three carriages" has changed obviously, and consumption, exports and investment have been decreasing gradually, which has affected the market this year.

Statistics show that in the 1~9 months of this year, the output of chemical fiber yarns increased by 24.8% compared with the same period last year, and the chemical fiber fabrics increased by 12.1% compared with the same period last year, and the total retail sales of domestic textiles and garments increased by nearly 28% compared with the same period last year.

Affected by the rising cotton prices and other factors, the proportion of chemical fiber and its products in textile and garment industry has been steadily improved.

On the export side, polyester polyester products exported directly to 165 tons in 1~9 months, up nearly 32% compared with the same period last year, and exports of chemical fiber products increased by 25% compared with the same period last year. The proportion of chemical fiber products in textile and garment exports accounted for nearly 40%.

The booming performance of the chemical fiber industry has attracted a lot of investment both inside and outside the industry, and to a certain extent, it has been favorable for the market.

Zhao Jinping, vice minister from the Ministry of Foreign Economic Research of the State Council Development Research Center, has further clarified the reasons for the rapid growth of exports by analyzing the economic situation at home and abroad.

At present, the international market is slowly recovering, and the demand of developed countries is gradually rising.

The "re industrialization" strategy of the United States, Europe and Japan also stimulated consumption in some extent.

But he also pointed out that the uncertainty of the global economy is still increasing, whether "re industrialization" will continue for a long time, and whether the "exchange rate dispute" will cause trade protection, which is doubtful.

Industrial chain running in to create a new balance

From the analysis of the basic factors affecting the market, polyester polyester enterprises can maintain good profit margins this year, which is inseparable from the relative stability of upstream raw material prices.

As for the upstream, the price of raw materials should be maintained within an appropriate range, taking into account the subjective behavior taken by the healthy development of the industrial chain, or objectively because of the increase in the capacity of PX and PTA.

After the cooperation of domestic parties, the import dependence of PTA for bulk raw materials has decreased year by year. In 2006, the import volume was less than 50% per year in 2006, and the dependence on imports decreased to 33.5% in 2009.

It can be said that the localization of PTA has enabled domestic enterprises to master bargaining power to a certain extent.

PX import dependence is relatively high, but on the basis of the rapid growth of domestic capacity in 11th Five-Year, there will be a large number of projects put into operation in the next 5 years. It is estimated that the planned capacity will reach 11 million 500 thousand tons in 2015 and the import volume will be maintained at around 3 million tons.

On the other hand, the demand for polyester polyester has much room for growth.

According to the preliminary prediction of China Chemical Fiber Association, the demand for chemical fiber will grow to 15 million tons during the "12th Five-Year" period.

Xiaoping explained the specific sources of these 15 million tons, including the natural growth (9 million tons) brought about by domestic diversification, multi-level demand, widening the scope of application, expanding the demand growth (1 million 500 thousand tons) brought about by the export and replacement of imports, replacing cotton resources (1 million 500 thousand tons), and withdrawing or eliminating backward production capacity to make room for new production (3 million tons).

Among them, the demand for polyester products will increase to 12 million tons in the next 5 years.

From this point of view, the newly increased polyester production capacity will be digested through market regulation, and the relative surplus of capacity is not a big problem.

Most representatives are also inclined to this view.

Can good scenery last for a long time?

Now it seems that the problem of raw materials is being solved quickly, and downstream demand is still expanding. The situation of polyester industry chain imbalance seems to have been repaired.

But the concern of the industry is whether the polyester industry has the ability to maintain this balance for a long time.

Xu Zhilong, a PTA analyst at Hengyi Group Co. Ltd. in Zhejiang, discussed the changes in the structure of PTA industry chain with the title of "the right to recover the price."

He pointed out that cotton prices continued to hit a new high and the price to PTA ratio continued to rise.

On the one hand, the soaring cotton prices support the rapid rise of PTA futures prices; on the other hand, under the substitution law of cotton and chemical fiber, the increase of chemical fiber consumption and the continuous prosperity of the industry are more likely to make polyester production capacity enter the era of large-scale expansion, and the supply of PTA will be further reduced.

Judging from the current situation, PTA futures prices have risen all the way.

For this year's excellent market, Shou Pak Chun, general manager of Zhejiang Rongsheng chemical fiber Sales Co., Ltd., believes there is another reason -- a large number of new projects have been delayed or delayed due to the limitation of delivery date of key equipment, such as the date of delivery of the winding head of BMG has been put to 2013.

This makes the production capacity not centralized release, the inventory level of enterprises remains low, and cash flow is abundant.

And these new capacity will be put into operation in the next few years, so the industrial chain may be impacted.

Shou Bo Chun summed up the experience and lessons of many years, and reminded the industry to consider more in three aspects: Cracking the homogenization of low level competition, avoiding excessive speculation, and fighting for the right to speak raw material prices.

In fact, homogenization competition has brought friction.

For example, the EU has adopted anti-dumping measures against polyester chips, polyester high-strength yarns imported from China.

Even so, Colin Purvis, director of the European Commission on international synthetic fibres, will not forget to mention another point in this forum after the China International Chemical fiber conference in September this year: why is the export price of China's polyester products lower than 25% of other countries? Although it has been explained for a long time, it is obviously not enough to convince him.

The whole report of Colin Purvis is focused on the theme of "why China's polyester industry is still expanding rapidly".

In addition, MEG, another important raw material of polyester, has been imported for over 60% years.

Liang Fuhua, commercial director of global ethylene glycol Asia Ltd., points out that the supply of MEG worldwide is becoming more and more intense, and the new capacity will only be put into operation after 2013.

Although the sources of MEG materials are diversified, it is difficult to change the market structure in the short term. China will also face the situation of MEG highly dependent on imports for a long time.

A variety of phenomena show that the current balanced polyester industry chain is actually undercurrent. Although participants are also predicting that the current market can be maintained until the second half of 2011, they want to make this healthy balance a norm. Perhaps this will not be too far from the efforts of all parties in the process of repairing and perfecting the industrial chain.