Cotton Price Setback &Nbsp; Speculators From Heaven To Hell &Nbsp; Capital Is Forced To Run Away

November 10th is the day when the old cotton farmers in Jinshan Town of Jining, Shandong province can not forget.

On that day, cotton prices changed for a period of more than two months, down 2% on that day.

On that day, the relevant people of the national development and Reform Commission issued a statement that "speculative capital speculation has led to excessive cotton prices".

Subsequently, cotton prices began to "high platform diving".

Lao Liang's dream of making money for 20 days is broken.

Just 17 days.

Lao Liang planted 100 mu of cotton in Jinxiang, Shandong.

Before and after the Dragon Boat Festival this year, Lao Liang heard that cotton production in Dezhou might be reduced.

Look at their own cotton grow better than in previous years, Lao Liang heart has the bottom: this year cotton can sell a good price!

Sure enough, since August, cotton enterprises in Xinjiang and Henan have announced that they are ready to raise the purchase price of cotton because of the impact of weather disasters and reduced planting area. Cotton is in short supply this year, and cotton prices have hit a new high in recent years.

Looking at the pleasant growth of cotton in the field, Lao Liang figured: last year, a catty was sold to 6 yuan. This year, it is estimated that it will sell nearly 7 yuan for 5100 mu of land and sell for nearly 30 thousand yuan.

"Lao Liang, you can earn a few money on those cotton in your land!" when Lao Liang gave his cotton yard "abacus", a friend's statement surprised him. "Now that we know that cotton is going to raise prices this year, I still hope to grow cotton!"

"Can you do it? How can we do it?"

"Let's find a few people to gather together to collect cotton from different places.

The difference between the inside and outside is not our price? The more money the members get together, the more they can lower the purchase price and go up in the same price. Do you earn much more than you grow cotton?

This remark moved Lao Liang.

He doubted his 300 thousand yuan deposit and joined the "group" cotton team.

Unexpectedly, after the national day, Lao Liang looked at the cotton price of "rolling up and going up". He was surprised that his mouth could not agree: a catty cotton was collected 7 yuan 5, less than a month, the price rose to 10 yuan.

Gradually, Lao Liang found the way: cotton enterprises do not have the cotton purchase certificate issued by the state, they can not be bought directly, they must go through the middleman, and he can sign the purchase contract with the growers in the cotton grower's identity, so that they can not sell the goods properly and wait for the right price to sell.

"During that time, cotton prices rose every day, and I didn't care about the cotton in my own land, and ran out every day - Cotton!" Lao Liang said.

Gradually, cotton directly from cotton farmers can no longer satisfy the appetite of Lao Liang. He began to pick up goods from traders. Even at the high level of 30000 yuan / ton, Lao Liang also added 300 thousand yuan: "experts of cotton trading network see 35000 yuan / ton."

But unexpectedly, the fleeting market made Lao Liang unprepared.

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Futures veteran

"The opportunity is coming again. Zheng Mian will be able to open the warehouse tomorrow, with a short-term target of 34000 yuan!"

Also in November 10th, after the fall of Zheng cotton futures prices, an old man who had done more than 10 years of cotton trade in the country, Mr. Yip, enthusiastically sent the SMS to friends in futures circles.

It is this short message that leads another person to hold up.

After ten one, the price of cotton, which is more and more aggressive, has attracted Mr. Ye's special attention.

"From the end of August to the beginning of October, the price of cotton has doubled. It is rare to achieve such a gain in such a short time."

Later, he began to build more cotton futures. When the price was the highest, the book surplus was as high as about 300000 yuan.

But God is so fond of playing tricks on people: that you can easily climb to the top and let you fall to the bottom.

Just when ye decided that the "short line callback" is a rare opportunity to raise the price, it never occurred to him that cotton futures prices began diving all the way from the second day.

In just 17 trading days, cotton prices fell from heaven to hell.

Data show that the spot market, the national cotton trading market commodity cotton (grade three cotton) electronic synthesis pricing from the highest 34560 yuan / ton in November 10th fell to the current 25000 yuan / ton, or 27.7%.

Affected by this, cotton futures prices on the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange also suffered a setback. Cotton futures prices fell to 24460 yuan / ton from the current peak of 33600 yuan / ton in November 10th, and the "price drop" of the cotton price was close to 9000 yuan per ton.

Under such a market situation, Mr. Ye was deeply locked up.

At present, the loss of his futures account has exceeded 500 thousand yuan.

According to Mr. Ye, many people fry futures at the same time in the fried electronic trading disk, 27000 yuan / ton is a cumulative accumulation of long positions price, at 33000 yuan / ton boldly add a lot of people.

"For the first two days, everyone thought it was a normal adjustment, but such a decrease in the short run is really unexpected.

It seems that a group of people are going to be bankrupt again this time. "

He said.

"If the cotton price is falling again, I decide not to increase the margin, but it is time to close the position."

Mr. Ye said helplessly.

In the situation of tight control policy, running or staying has become a problem that puzzles Lao Liang.

In November 10th, Zhou Wangjun, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission's price department, said in an interview with the Chinese government website that the current price of corn and cotton has gone up too fast. One of the main reasons is the speculation of hot money caused by excess liquidity.

At present, we should introduce regulatory measures against the phenomenon of capital speculation.

This attitude has been fully fermented in the capital market through the rapid spread of mass media.

In November 11th, the main contract price of zhengmian futures fell 5% again, reaching 32375 yuan / ton.

In November 17th, the State Council held a standing working conference to deploy the control of excessive price rise, demanding that market price supervision be strengthened, and penalties for agricultural products speculation should be increased.

In the spot market, the idle funds entered by the former group began to withdraw.

"My friends around began to throw it away.

What is up before, what to buy, what to fall now and what to throw.

Lao Liang said, "it seems that the government is very serious. We are afraid."

However, as the last person to take the lead, the purchase price of Lao Liang's warehouse is much higher than that of domestic cotton enterprises, which is 26000 yuan -27000 yuan / ton.

I really want to cut off this meat. Lao Liang really can't bear it. "Can't the price really come back?"

Shanghai mid-term futures cotton analyst sees thunder, and believes that the price of cotton spot and futures market will continue to decline, which is likely to fall to 22000 yuan / ton under the influence of national macro policy regulation.

In the early days, the state threw the reserve price around 20300 yuan / ton, so 20000 yuan / ton was the iron bottom.

This means that if Lao Liang does not run out now, he may fall even worse in a few days.

Even more frightening, Lao Liang found that in the spot market, even if he was willing to sell, he would not be able to find buyers.

Although the current market price has reached a reasonable range of cotton purchase price, the spot market is still in the doldrums.

"When prices rise, cotton enterprises can not get cotton 26000 yuan / ton, and now, 26000 yuan / ton of cotton cotton enterprises do not want it!" Lao Liang said.

Professionals believe that compared to previous years, the price is still high, cotton textile enterprises in next year's export recovery prospects unknown, dare not buy too much inventory.

"It's hard to sell. It's all in the hands."

Lao Liang sighed.