Moutai Takes The Lead In "Taking Into Account The Interests Of All Parties".

"Hoarding wine is still making money than storing gold," a professional speculator told reporters. "Liquor prices are also expected."

It was less than a week after Guizhou's Moutai (600519.SH) Cong fan Ning Ping made a clarification of Moutai's price report to an institutional analyst, and the company announced that its product price rose by an average of 20%.

Yesterday, Moutai announced that in order to better balance the interests of all interested parties such as the state, consumers, enterprises, distributors and investors, taking into account the factors such as the supply and demand of our products market, the price rise of raw and auxiliary materials and the strategic needs of the enterprises, the company decided to raise the factory price from January 1, 2011, with an average increase of about 20%.

After the news of Guizhou Moutai's price increase, it opened up more than 5% yesterday. After that, it slipped and closed at 206.98 yuan, but it rose 3.13%, becoming the biggest trading day this month.

Wuliangye will follow suit.

According to the Research Report of Tsing Wan world analyst taming, at present, Moutai's ex factory price is 499 yuan, which means that Moutai's factory price will turn into 598.8 yuan on New Year's day.

It is reported that Guizhou Moutai has decided to adjust the price of the company's leading products at the same time as it decides the price adjustment of the products, that is, the guidance price of the national distributors and stores of ordinary Moutai wine is 959 yuan / bottle, but the guiding price is still far below the current market price of the ordinary Moutai liquor.

According to the analysis and forecast of CITIC Securities, as the wholesale price of liquor sold continuously in 2010, the price of Guizhou Moutai increased from 60% to 100%, and other companies also expanded to varying degrees. Therefore, near the beginning of 2011, Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye and other liquor companies will raise prices, and the price range may vary from 10%-20%. In particular, when the spread of Moutai in Guizhou is significantly higher than the industry average level and its own historical level, the price increase will lead the industry.

In November, there were media reports that some dealers in Beijing and Shanghai had received notice of price increase by Wuliangye manufacturers. All kinds of wines from Wuliangye will be raised from the end of November to the new year's day in 2011. Among them, ordinary crystal bottled products will rise from the current wholesale price of 460 yuan / bottle to at least 500 yuan / bottle, and the increase will exceed 10%.

However, Wuliangye manufacturers also denied all the news of price rise before. In December 11th, Tang Bridge, chairman of Wuliangye (000858.SZ), said publicly that although the rise in grain prices caused the cost of wine making to rise, Wuliangye could not take the lead in rising prices as a state-owned enterprise. The implication seems to be that Wuliangye will not be the "leading brother" of the price increase, but it can "follow suit". Because Tang Bridge also said before, if the future Moutai first raise the price, Wuliangye will also make adjustments according to the market space.

At present, the market has also announced that Wuliangye has issued a notice of price increase to distributors. The news said, 52 degrees, 39 degrees and other 15 specifications of products will be raised by 50 yuan per bottle, one of the reasons for raising prices is "to meet the needs of consumers' identity."

CIC consultant food industry researcher pointed out that the current price rise once again confirms that the liquor market will probably grow by 10% or even higher before the Spring Festival season. Moutai, Wuliangye, the Yanghe River blue classics, blue and white porcelain, Fenjiu and other high-end will have different degrees of price increase.

Liquor price rise "inflection point" has not yet appeared.

Guizhou Moutai's price announcement pointed out that the price adjustment will have a certain impact on our company's business performance in 2011. Investors are invited to pay attention to investment risks.

Zhou Siran pointed out that it is obvious that the price increase can really increase the performance of Moutai next year. If the traditional liquor enterprises rely solely on the price increase to enhance their performance, this growth trend can not be maintained for a long time.

However, some research institutes have pointed out that although the foundation for supporting the industry's overall price rises is not strong at present, the factors that support price increases still exist. Nelson's sales survey data show that the sales growth rate of the major liquor brands has not declined due to the rise in prices. If the brand enterprises can better understand consumers and better operate the market, they will gain a larger market share. Therefore, at present, there is no turning point in liquor price rising trend. Liquor price increases mainly come from five reasons: the return of famous liquor value; the promotion of consumption upgrading; the imbalance between supply and demand of active and passive supply; the adjustment and upgrading of product structure and sales strategy by production enterprises; and the increase of product cost, including production cost, environmental protection cost and tax burden.

In fact, since the beginning of this year, the liquor manufacturers and dealers have repeatedly increased their prices, and they have buck each other's hands. The rising market price of traditional liquor is due to the imbalance of supply and demand on the one hand. On the other hand, it shows that the income level and purchasing power of residents have been greatly improved. That is to say, the expected price and the extent of liquor price increase are still determined by the market. In addition, Zhou Siran believes that because the production of these high-grade liquor is limited by factors such as origin, cycle and so on, the process of capacity expansion is relatively slow. This also means that although the liquor industry is affected by the consumption habits of liquor and other alcoholic drinks competition, the traditional national famous liquor in the high-end market is still in short supply, and with the slow expansion of production capacity, the traditional liquor enterprises will not overcapacity in the short term.

Zhou Siran believes that from the current brand value of traditional liquor enterprises, scarcity of products and strategic positioning of luxury goods, liquor prices are still far from hitting the ceiling.