China'S Foreign Trade Is Expected To Maintain Steady Growth In 2011.

In the first half of 2011, with the slowdown of world economic growth, the acceleration of domestic structural adjustment and the high base of the same period, China entered the first half of the year.

1. international environment: the momentum of world economic growth is weakening and uncertainties are increasing.

(1) world economic growth is slowing down gradually.

Recently, economic growth in major economies such as the United States and Japan showed signs of deceleration.

The marginal effect of joint efforts to implement economic stimulus policies in the world has gradually diminishing, and the policy orientation of major economies has been divided. The leading index of major economies is still in the doldrums.

The world economy has gradually entered the "slow growth period" from the "policy pick-up" period.

World GDP growth is expected to decline in 2011.

(2) the fluctuation of international commodity prices has increased.

As the economic growth of the developed economies slows, the growth of emerging economies will be slowed down by overseas trade, and the actual demand for international commodities will weaken at the next stage.

However, as part of the monetary authorities of some countries have embarked on the second round of quantitative easing policy, global liquidity will be further relaxed, which will increase the price volatility of the global commodity market.

(3) the adverse effects of international trade protection and exchange rate pressure deepened.

Under the impact of the financial crisis, the competition in the international market is more intense, and the trend of trade protectionism in every country is becoming more and more deepened. Some developed countries, represented by the United States, carry out trade investigation and trade sanctions against China in a wide range of fields, not only as a restriction on China's export products, but also in the field of emerging industries in the United States, aiming at clean energy products, they also put forward trade surveys to China, making China the biggest victim of trade friction.

2. domestic factors: the macroeconomic environment is generally stable, and the increase of factor prices can not be ignored.

(1) economic growth will show a trend of low before and after high.

In the first half of 2011, China's economy will slow down relative to the base effect and the economic cycle. In the second half of this year, the growth rate of the economy will gradually recover from the stabilization of the world economy and the base of the same period.

GDP growth in 2011 is expected to be around the potential growth potential of our country. This will provide a good macroeconomic environment for China's steady foreign trade operation.

(2) the implementation of structural adjustment strategy is intensified.

2011 is the opening year of our 12th Five-Year plan.

In terms of demand structure adjustment, we will pay more attention to domestic demand, especially consumption demand. In terms of industrial structure adjustment, the development plan of seven strategic emerging industries, such as energy conservation, environmental protection, new generation of information technology, biology and so on, has been fully started. In terms of input structure, energy conservation, efficiency enhancement and ecological protection will become an important starting point for economic restructuring, and the concepts of green economy, circular economy and low-carbon technology will be deeply rooted in the hearts of the people.

Against this background, the proportion of China's exports to GDP and the structure of export products will also be adjusted accordingly.

(3) the RMB exchange rate gradually appreciated.

Since the reopening of foreign exchange reform in June 19, 2010, the value of the renminbi has appreciated by about 3%, and some export enterprises have already felt the pressure from the appreciation of the renminbi.

It is estimated that the exchange rate will continue to show an upward trend in the next stage.

The appreciation of RMB will affect the competitiveness of China's export products, and will also affect the operating income of foreign-funded enterprises, which is not conducive to the steady growth of foreign trade.

(4) the production cost is further improved.

From the perspective of labor factor cost, in 2011, with the continuous advance of the reform of national income distribution, the pattern of income distribution will continue to adjust to the direction of residents and workers.

In 2011, in the crucial period of promoting the pricing of resource products and the reform of factor market, it is estimated that the pace of reform of resources and energy prices will accelerate at the next stage, and the pressure on resources and environment costs faced by export enterprises will increase.

From the perspective of the cost of capital elements, the central bank has started the rate increase process recently, and the RMB exchange rate level has increased rapidly, and the cost of capital is rising into a rising channel.

The increase in cost of production represented by resources, labor and capital will reduce the export profits of enterprises.

Forecast of future foreign trade situation

1. total forecast

In 2011, considering the growth of the world economy, the demand changes of major economies, the growth of domestic industrial production and investment and consumption, the fluctuation of exchange rate and domestic and foreign price changes, and the same period cardinal effect, it is expected that the growth of foreign trade will reach 16%, import growth will reach 20%, and the surplus will be maintained at around us $170 billion, slightly lower than the level in 2010.

2. structure prediction

Export: from the perspective of product mix, the structure of China's export products will be further optimized in the context of vigorously adjusting the industrial structure, stepping up the elimination of backward production capacity and encouraging the development of strategic emerging industries.

Exports of mechanical and electrical products and high technology products continue to grow, but their growth rate may be slowed down due to the end of the world's "industrial inventory compensation period". The export growth rate of rare metal products, such as resource products, energy products and high energy products, will be significantly reduced under the policy of "structural adjustment" in China.

From the perspective of national structure, China's exports to the US, Japan and Europe will continue to decline slightly from the current level to around 35%, thanks to the slowdown in economic growth, low demand and frequent trade protectionism events in developed economies.

Under the influence of regional economic cooperation, such as the start of China ASEAN Free Trade Area, the trade between China and ASEAN will continue to deepen, and the proportion of exports to ASEAN will continue to rise.

In addition, China's exports to emerging markets such as India, Russia, Brazil and Argentina will still maintain a good situation.

Import: in recent years, agricultural natural disasters frequently occurred, and some of the prices of agricultural products rose sharply.

In the world, Russia and other major grain exporting countries have suffered sharp decline in exports due to disasters, and the prices of major agricultural products such as cotton have surged. Due to strategic safety and optimization of the structure of imported products, China should appropriately expand the scale of grain imports and increase the import proportion of agricultural products and foodstuffs.

Since China's industrial and investment growth will slow down in 2011 with the moderate adjustment of GDP, the production of high energy consuming industries will be suppressed, and the demand for resource related products, such as ores, will be reduced, and the growth rate of imports will drop to a certain extent, and the proportion will decline.