PTA Challenges The Terminal Market To Withstand The Limit Of 12000 Yuan, There Is Still Much Room For Growth.

After a short break near the high point last November,

Rising raw material prices are unlikely to support PTA prices.

Since the Spring Festival holiday, the supply of oil in the Middle East has eased the impact of international oil prices.

NYMEX crude oil prices fell to nearly $87 a barrel in recent months. The five trading days during the Spring Festival holiday fell by 3.83 US dollars, or 4.42%.

IPE crude oil prices are high and broad, and crude oil has dropped back to below 100 US dollars per barrel in recent months.

The international crude oil price correction did not have a substantial impact on the production and pportation of crude oil in the Middle East.

Judging from the performance of the domestic market after the festival, the impact of crude oil price correction on PTA futures is limited. The impact of upstream raw material price changes on PTA prices is not obvious at this stage.

From the point of view of the price ratio between domestic PTA futures and international crude oil prices, the price rises rapidly since December last year, and has risen to near 140, and has entered a relatively high area. This means that PTA prices have long been free from the constraint of production cost changes. The impact of the rise and fall of crude oil prices on the top of the industrial chain has weakened the impact of PTA prices. Even if the international crude oil prices rose sharply in the first half of the consumption season, it would be difficult for PTA to bring significant cost push.

PTA prices continued to rise sharply, PX prices followed by steadily higher.

Chinese customs statistics show that the average monthly price of PX imports has risen from 876.34 US dollars / ton in August last year to 1264.91 US dollars / ton in December, or 44.34%.

Although January is the traditional low season for imports, the import price is expected to be higher in January this year.

The spot price of PX has risen from $820 / ton in July last year to $1659 / ton, or an alarming 102.31%.

The sharp rise in PX prices is not due to the rise in upstream crude oil prices, but because of the strong demand from downstream PTA manufacturers.

From the PX import volume, the total import volume in 2010 was 3 million 527 thousand and 200 tons, which was 178 thousand and 100 tons less than that of 3 million 705 thousand and 300 tons in 2009.

Domestic PX's external dependence has not risen. After the PX price rebounded, production profits have returned to normal. The PX supply bottleneck problem that the market is worried about is difficult to become the main driving force to drive up the price of PTA.

Rising prices of textile raw materials will challenge the endurance of the terminal consumer market.

In 2010, the reduction of cotton production and shortage of supply made the substitution effect of polyester on cotton yarn stronger. The supply of chemical fiber market which was originally in supply and demand balance was also tending to be tight. In the case of short term expansion of capacity, the sharp rise of PTA price was logical.

However, the soaring prices of textile raw materials will eventually be tested by the terminal consumer market. Once the price rises exceed the end-user's tolerance, then the fall will become inevitable.

In the second half of 2010, the new production capacity of polyester was concentrated and put into operation, and the operating rate remained at a high level, which was an important factor in supporting the soaring price of PTA.

The growth of domestic PTA capacity basically matched the demand for new polyester in the second half of 2011, while the expansion of polyester production capacity was mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. The market generally expected that the demand for PTA in polyester factories will rise sharply in the first half of this year, and the supply of PTA will be in short supply. This is the basis for the high price of PTA futures since the Spring Festival. From the perspective of domestic PTA imports, the total import volume in 2010 was 5 million 402 thousand and 400 tons, an increase of 321 thousand and 200 tons compared with 5 million 81 thousand and 200 tons in 2009, and import prices rose from 835.45 yuan / ton in August to 1177.15 dollars / ton in December, reaching 40.90% in the second half of 2011.

The current PTA import price is the highest level since 2000.

The prices of major textile raw materials will continue to rise sharply in the face of the test of the terminal market. Whether consumers can bear such a rapid and substantial increase will decide the future trend of PTA price.

This year's monetary policy is not conducive to the promotion of consumer spending on textile and apparel products.

After entering the interest rate cycle, the benchmark interest rate of the deposit and loan is gradually raised. The consumption cost of ordinary consumers in housing, catering and other fields is rising, and the expenditure on textile and clothing will inevitably be reduced.

From the author's survey during the Spring Festival period, clothing consumption during the holidays is obviously not as good as in previous years, which is not a good omen for PTA.

Judging from the change of RMB exchange rate, it is inevitable to continue to appreciate this year. The competitiveness of China's textile and apparel products in the international market will continue to decline.

The author thinks that the expansion of polyester links in the PTA industry chain overestimates the consumption capacity of the terminal market, and the continuous rise of cotton and PTA prices has exceeded the end-users' affordability, and their prices will not be maintained at a high level for a long time.

The current PTA price increase is mainly affected by cotton prices continuing upward. From the cotton history trend rule, the probability of falling after March is higher. The domestic cotton price in September has a greater resistance near the high point of November last year, and the probability of late market fall is greater than that of rising, and the downward space is much larger than the rising space.

The main force of the PTA futures contract is not enough to continue to soar after the acceleration, and there is still much room for further improvement on the top 12000 yuan / ton.

On the operation, it is suggested that investors should do a good job of hedging in the industrial chain. The profit margins of ordinary investors who continue to catch up at the current price limit are limited.