US Dollar Reversed Strongly, Pulling RMB Exchange Rate Down Slightly
Last week, after China's economic data released in April and the strength of the US dollar, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar in the first three trading days continued to create a new high in 2005, and fell slightly in the two trading days.
Analysts expect that the RMB exchange rate will continue to maintain a trend of slight appreciation.
On the five trading day last week, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar announced by the China foreign exchange trading center rose three trading days, two trading days down, and the weekly wave amplitude was 69 basis points.
On Monday, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar increased by 15 basis points on Friday's 6.5003 basis, to 6.4988. After the first break of the 6.50 pass in April 29th, it again hit a new high in 2005.
In the following two trading days, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar went up continuously, rising to 5.495 and 6.4948 respectively, all of which were the new high since the reform.
On Thursday, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar dropped 57 basis points to 6.5005.
And on Friday, it continued to drop slightly by 12 basis points to 6.5017.
Last Tuesday, data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that China's export volume hit a record high in April.
Balance of trade surplus
Up to 11 billion 430 million US dollars, higher than market expectations, further strengthened the expected appreciation of RMB.
On Wednesday, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the April Chinese consumer price (CPI) rose 5.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points lower than in March.
Although the trend of price rise has been initially curbed, the pressure of rising prices is still strong, especially the import inflation pressure is still large, and it has an indirect impact on the trend of RMB.
Insiders analyzed that although the trade surplus in April surpassed market expectations, the pressure of RMB appreciation was only short-term.
RMB
exchange rate
Reform will continue to be perfected in accordance with the principles of initiative, controllability and gradualism.
On the overseas market, the US dollar went out of a strong trend last week, and the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar dropped to 6.50 after last week's two trading days.
Some market traders pointed out that the RMB exchange rate is still in an upward trend, but the recent euro zone debt worries weaken the euro, which may inhibit the upward trend of the RMB against the US dollar in the near future.
But on the other hand, under the constraint of the second round of quantitative easing policy, the spread between the United States and other developed countries will still restrict the rise of the US dollar.
The recent rally in the US dollar is at the bottom or partial callback. At present, we should wait until the end of the June quantitative easing policy.
Since the central bank announced the further reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism in June 19, 2010, the RMB has appreciated slightly, the two-way floating characteristics are obvious, and the exchange rate elasticity has been significantly enhanced.
In the middle price, the appreciation of RMB has exceeded 5% since June 19, 2010.
This year alone, the yuan has appreciated by more than 1.9%.
forward market
On the evening of the 13 th, the overseas non capital delivery market to measure overseas market expectations of RMB appreciation was compared with the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the spot price. It shows that the market thinks RMB appreciation is 2% after a year, and the appreciation expectation is still strong.
Last week, the euro went down as a result of the renewed debt crisis in Greece.
Affected by this, the central parity of RMB against the euro continued to rise, rising from 9.3 to 9.2.
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