Cotton Prices Plummeted &Nbsp; Small And Medium Textile Enterprises Difficult To Relieve Worries.
Cotton prices that ushered in the "30 thousand Yuan era" a few months ago have fallen to the lowest level in the near future.
The price of cotton has been severely damaged, and the textile industry has been hit hard. Textile enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, have difficulty in easing up their inventory, increasing demand and financing difficulties.
The report of the cotton Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences released on August 2nd by the China Cotton Association website said that the whole cotton industry scenario is even more severe and complicated than the financial crisis.
It is predicted that this year will be a turning point for ending the "golden period" of textile industry, and a batch of cotton spinning enterprises will have to stop production or go bankrupt.
According to the latest data from the business community
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In July, the cotton spot market fell sharply. The average price of the 3 grade real estate cotton spot market was 23927 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and the average price was 20123 yuan / ton at the end of the month, or 15.89%.
In the futures market, the 1109 cotton contract of the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange fell from 34000 yuan / ton in February to 21000 yuan / ton, or nearly 40%.
In the international futures market, the price of futures in the New York Intercontinental Exchange in October reached 164.64 cents / pound in April, and fell to 100 cents / pound at the end of July, the same as nearly 40%.
It is understood that from September 1, 2011 to March 31, 2012, the relevant departments will carry out a cotton temporary storage plan in 13 main cotton producing provinces (districts and cities) in Xinjiang and Shandong, and the temporary storage price is 19800 yuan per ton of standard grade cotton to the Treasury price.
Insiders said that 19800 yuan is the lower limit of cotton prices falling, and the time will be relatively short for the stage breaking down this price.
Big farmers since last year
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Cotton is playing a role as a weathervane in the price rise.
In the less than two and a half months from last September to early November, cotton prices rose more than 67% at home and abroad.
After returning to the fundamentals of cotton prices, cotton prices rose again in February and entered the "30 thousand Yuan era" because of the contradiction between "insufficient production and demand".
Xu Wenying, vice president of the China Textile Industry Association, said that after the cotton price rose last year, the yarn price began to rise, and downstream enterprises were buying crazily.
Financial, real estate, circulation and other areas of funds also enter the market to buy and sell, when the market is best, a ton of yarn can earn 10 thousand yuan.
"The fall in cotton prices is now expected."
Ma Wenfeng, an analyst with the Oriental Agribusiness Consulting firm, told the economic reference daily that cotton prices had skyrocketed because of excessive speculation in the market, which deviated from the supply and demand situation.
value
The rule is actually the result of the "bubble" blow.
Li Liheng, a cotton analyst at business and textile branch, predicts that the spot price of cotton will continue to weaken in the future, but there will be limited space to continue.
Under the support of rising cost, supply and demand gap and minimum purchase price of 19800 yuan / ton cotton, the long-term trend of cotton price has a slight rebound.
For speculators, making a profit can get the whole body back, and the textile enterprises are bogged down in the mire of cotton prices.
"Cotton prices fell more than 30%, the textile industry this year, the situation is not optimistic."
In an interview with the economic reference daily, Xu Wenying said that in the process of falling prices, the downstream demand was not strong, and wait-and-see sentiment was strong, resulting in a backlog of products in the spinning mill.
Since the beginning of this year, the stock of cotton mill has increased significantly, and the production and marketing rate is only 87%, compared with at least 97% last year.
Xu Wenying said that cotton prices rose last year, and the whole textile industry has achieved good results in the upper and lower reaches of the textile industry. Sales of the textile industry have reached the best level in history.
But this growth is not a rigid demand of the textile industry, but a "false demand".
The global consumer market is weak, and domestic cotton yarn production and textile exports have begun to drop sharply.
Xu Wenying said that the export growth rate of final products such as textiles and clothing was only 3.8% in the first half of this year, down 12.5% from last year.
Historically, in addition to negative growth in 2009, the growth rate has not been so low.
Xu Wenying believes that the most difficult part is small and medium-sized enterprises.
Because
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Raising interest rates and raising the deposit reserve ratio, financing difficulties for SMEs, they have no money to buy cotton, coupled with poor sales, Henan, Shandong and many other small factories shut down.
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