"12Th Five-Year" Brand Clothing: Imagination Five Years Ten Times

After the implementation of the "income doubling plan" in 60s, clothing, home textiles and footwear, which are closely related to people's daily life, have been growing for many years. Clothing has increased by 29 years from 1963-1991 years, with a compound growth rate of 6.2%. Home textiles increased from 1963-1983 years to 21 years, and the compound growth rate was 7.3%. Footwear increased from 1963-1992 years to 30 years, and the compound growth rate was 5.4%. In the 70-80 era, when Japan's per capita GDP reached US $3000-8000, these consumer goods showed a trend of accelerated growth.

At present, the disparity between per capita consumption of clothing and other developed countries in China is very huge, and the future development space will be very broad. In every field of clothing, with the largest number of clothing per capita, for example, the gap between the two countries is still large, let alone the industries such as consumption promotion and popularization, and later accessories. From the perspective of per capita consumption, clothing sales in 2009 were approximately US $680, while the per capita clothing consumption in Japan was around us $750; in 2009, however, the per capita consumption of clothing in China was less than US $40; in terms of footwear, Japan's per capita footwear consumption reached US $157 in 2009, and the figure in the United States also exceeded US $85, while the per capita footwear consumption in China was less than US $10. disparity 。

China's textile and apparel consumption began to grow rapidly in 2005. Over the past 2005-2010 years, the textile and apparel retail sales above the quota increased by 23%. In 2010, China's per capita GDP was about 4500 US dollars, which was similar to that of the US in the late 1960s. According to the historical experience of clothing consumption in the United States: GDP per capita has entered more than $3000, clothing consumption has entered a high growth cycle, and has maintained a GDP growth rate of 2-3 times in thirty years. China's clothing consumption has entered a high growth cycle. It is expected that the sales growth of clothing consumption during the "12th Five-Year" period will exceed the annual compound growth rate during the "11th Five-Year" period, and the annual compound growth rate may exceed 25%. {page_break}

　 Brand enterprises have the ability to pass on the cost.

In the traditional garment manufacturing cost structure, the raw material cost accounts for 60%-75%, and the manufacturing cost accounts for only about 25%. At present, the cost of raw materials and processing costs are rising, and the rigid rise in manufacturing costs is bound to pass on to the next link. Cotton prices, especially cotton prices, are the most serious. They first affect the weaving industry, then to printing and dyeing, clothing and so on. accessories The transmission of manufacturing industry.

From the perspective of raw materials, the main raw materials of clothing are cloth of various materials, and cotton and various chemical fibers upstream. In 2010, domestic and foreign cotton prices rose significantly, and drove the prices of all fiber raw materials up. From the cotton price point of view, the domestic 328 grade cotton rose from 15000 yuan / ton in the beginning to 31000 yuan / ton in November, or more than 100%, especially after the new cotton came into the market in September. The cotton price rose rapidly, forming a daily price inflation situation. In less than 3 months, it rose from 18000 yuan / ton to 31000 yuan / ton. Since February 18th this year, cotton prices have dropped from a high level, but taking into account supply and demand. Gap Cotton stocks remain at a historic low, with limited space to fall.

After the price of raw materials continues to rise, the major terminal clothing brands have adopted the strategy of raising prices to shift the cost pressure. Among them, home textile and sports goods market is the hottest price trend, and the prices of major brands such as Lining, Anta, XTEP, 361 degrees, Roley home textiles, fuanna, news bird and so on have risen to varying degrees. On the whole, prices have risen by more than 10%. From this we can see that because of the large profit margins and strong bargaining power to the end consumer groups, the brand clothing has little impact on the decline in cotton prices.

In the early stage of inflation, the effect of raising the price in the name of cost is not obvious. However, in the middle and later stages of inflation, with the decrease of the actual purchasing power of consumers (the products that are continuously increased), the ability of enterprises to increase the price of products will gradually encounter bottlenecks or directly affect the sales volume of products, and only those companies that have high quality, technological superiority, design characteristics, channel service advantages and brand premium can win in inflation. From a larger perspective, limited by the limited resources, the upstream raw materials of consumer goods are on the rise for a long time, and enterprises can offset the rise of upstream prices by raising the price of terminal products. The middle production is only the advantage enterprises can develop and grow through competition, while most enterprises maintain their operations and some enterprises are eliminated in competition.

In 2010, clothing products had begun to raise the price trend. The retail sales volume of major large department stores increased by 25.53% over the same period last year, of which the price rose by 13.58% compared to the same period last year, the highest level in the past five years. The number of sales in the same period also reached 11.95%, which was significantly higher than that in 2008 and 2009. From the end of spring and summer, autumn and winter in 2011, the average price increase of spring and summer products reached 15%, while the autumn and winter products are expected to raise prices by 20%, which has basically shifted the upward pressure on costs. As the average increase in orders is over 30%, the number of sales is expected to increase by double digits.

Since 2007, dozens of well-known brand clothing, home textiles and other enterprises have been listed. At present, the market value of brand companies has accounted for 40% of the total market value of the apparel industry. The average growth rate of revenue and net profit of key brand clothing companies in 2010 was 36% and 34% respectively. These booming companies represent the future direction of China's consumer goods industry, and more brand companies will be listed in the future.

　 Characteristics of excellent brand clothing enterprises

Beginning in 1960s, with the rise of popular culture, the world garment pattern changed dramatically, and the era of high fashion dominating the world ended. In the United States and Japan, fashion oriented clothing design is aimed at the masses and has made the representative brands such as GAP (Gap), H&M, ZARA, UNIQLO (UNIQLO) and ESPRIT (Si Jie). In the process of growing up, Brand Company, a public garment, is also accompanied by a capital myth of constantly doubling its share price.

For example, in the middle and late 90s of last century, the GAP company had a compound annual growth rate of over 20%, a net profit growth rate of over 25% and a 9 increase of share price, which was much higher than that of the S & P 500 index. In the twenty years from 1990 to 2010, the annual compound growth rate of operating income and net profit of H&M company was 15.98% and 25.63% respectively. The annual composite growth rate of the corresponding company's share price was 32.53%. During the period, the price of the company's stock increased by 270 times, much higher than that of the same market index.

From the growth course of these excellent brand clothing companies, the unusual investment value comes from its amazing high asset turnover rate, profitability and growth. From the business point of view, these fast-growing brand clothing companies have their common characteristics: bright market positioning, efficient business models, rapid channel expansion, targeted multi brand strategy, rich product lines, global resource allocation, and continuous brand input. As a matter of fact, clothing companies can rise to several of these outstanding qualities, and be able to achieve a balance in all aspects, which is likely to become an evergreen tree in the field of consumer goods. Most of the brand clothing enterprises listed in China are learning the growth characteristics of the above-mentioned excellent brand enterprises. Companies that share price "ten years and ten times" or even "five years and ten times" may be born in these enterprises.

　　 Brand clothing is in gold investment period.

In the next few years, the combined growth rate of domestic clothing consumption will exceed the growth rate of the past 5 years, and the total market volume will increase significantly. With the increase of labor and raw material cost, the brand clothing enterprises that enjoy the advantages of the channel, continuously upgrade and innovate, and have a fast turnover in assets will enjoy the full enjoyment of the market capacity. From the perspective of consumption upgrading and rural market growth, high-end brands and low-end brands have the opportunity to lead the industry, and brand clothing enterprises are in the golden age of investment. In the A share market, brand clothing companies also get a higher valuation level because of their high growth. Comprehensive growth space, performance growth, business level, valuation level and other factors, it is recommended that long-term attention should be paid to the seven wolves, the wedding birds, the Pathfinder, the American bond, the nine herdmen, the Kaiser shares, the Wordsworth shares, the Semir dress, and the search for special and Hinur.