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China'S Cotton Imports Will Account For Half Of World Growth In The Next 10 Years.

2011/8/31 11:57:00 44

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Cotton Import World Is Expected To Increase In The Future

According to information from the world factory textile and apparel network, the forecast of the cotton industry in the next 10 years will be carried out in the 2010~2019 agricultural forecast report issued by the US Department of agriculture.

In the next 10 years, China's cotton imports are expected to account for half of the world's increments, according to the report.

The report points out that the world

cotton

Trade is expected to grow at an annual growth rate of 2.2% to 2019, but it will not exceed 2005's record in the next 10 years.

Since the abolition of textile quotas 5 years ago, the volume and trade of cotton factories have changed dramatically.

The import of cotton in Asian countries has increased from less than 50% in the 90s to 72% in 2009, which is expected to reach more than 78% by 2019.

In the next 10 years, Asia will account for almost all the growth of cotton imports worldwide.

Future changes of the report to major cotton producing countries and regions in the world

Conduct

Prediction: with the continuous progress of globalization, trade between countries is constantly strengthened, and various international trade policies and barriers are also undergoing various changes. The emergence of various new breeding and planting technologies will also be the main factors affecting the international cotton market structure.

Due to the abolition of textile quotas in 2005, textile enterprises in China, India and Pakistan have become the main beneficiaries of textile free trade.

Meanwhile, imports from other Asian countries also increased, most notably.

Vietnam?

And Bangladesh.

In the next 10 years, China's textile industry and cotton imports are expected to continue to grow, but the growth rate will be far lower than the growth rate after 2001~2005 accession to WTO.

But in the next 10 years, China's cotton imports are expected to account for half of the world's increments.

Pakistan has become a major importer of cotton in recent years. It is expected that in the next 10 years, Pakistan will become the second largest importer of cotton in the world.

However, if the new cotton varieties can improve cotton production in Pakistan, its import volume may decline.

Until several years ago, the textile industry in Turkey benefited greatly from the convenient trade with Europe (the EU was the main export market for textiles and clothing in Turkey).

However, with the termination of textile quotas, its competitors have also been able to go to the EU market more smoothly at lower cost.

Turkey's cotton imports have shown a decline and are expected to continue to decline in the next 10 years.

The European Union, Japan, China, Taiwan and South Korea have all been steadily reducing their cotton imports due to textile trade reforms or higher wage demands in China. At the same time, they have driven them to shift domestic textile production to wage or other lower cost areas.

According to the report, globalization is expected to continue to promote.

Raw cotton

Production is pferred to countries or regions where cotton production is superior to natural conditions and technology base is good.

Those cotton producing countries with wide cotton planting conditions and vast areas, including the United States, sub Saharan African countries, India and Brazil, will continue to benefit from the trade situation in the post quota era.

The importance of technology has been highlighted through the rapid adoption of genetically modified cotton in India. At present, almost all of India's crops are genetically modified cotton.

Since the 90s of last century, the Central Asian countries of the former Soviet Union have become the second largest cotton export regions in the world.

However, as the Central Asian governments' policies tend to promote investment in textiles, the export volume of textiles to a certain extent is far more than the export volume of raw cotton, which also slightly limits the expected growth in cotton exports in the region.

The export volume of sub Saharan African countries has increased rapidly in the past 10 years, but since 2006, the low world cotton prices and the weakness of the African Financial Community Franc (linked to the euro) have led to lower cotton production and exports in western African countries.

The cotton planting area of the 14 member states of the Au community has fallen to the lowest level since the depreciation of the Au Franc Franc in 1994.

With the economic development of these countries and the adoption of genetically modified cotton, cotton exports will increase by 1/3. in the next 10 years.

According to the report, the United States is expected to continue to be the world's leading cotton exporter in the next 10 years.

US cotton exports are expected to climb 24% by 2019, to 16 million packs, exceeding the total.

world

35% of cotton trade.

However, the US share of world cotton exports will still be lower than 40% in 2004.

The decline in cotton production in the US is expected to continue to the next 10 years. By 2019, it is expected to be less than 16% of the total consumption.

In fact, the US Department of agriculture forecasts the potential implication of the report, the United States in the next 10 years of clothing import volume is increasing, because the domestic clothing production and clothing enterprises in the United States for its domestic fiber and yarn demand is declining.