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State Securities: Textile And Garment Industry &Nbsp; Defense Is The Main.

2011/9/18 22:59:00 27

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National Gold Textile And Apparel Defense

Core tips

Consumption is small.

wave

China: from the medium-term trend, we believe that the growth of textile and clothing consumption will be presented in the future.

oscillation

Slow downward trend, and the newspaper shows that the quality of textile and apparel retail business growth is somewhat.

Slide downward

。

Next year, with the low price of raw materials such as cotton prices, the growth rate of textile and clothing sales is expected to pick up, so as to realize the pformation of volume and price. Taking into account that the negative impact of high price on consumers' consumption will gradually weaken, we expect consumption growth to slow down in 2012.

The storage and storage measures were started in September 8th: the short-term cotton temporary storage measures began to be carried out in the near future (open storage in September 8th, not limited by quantity, and the storage continued until March 31, 2012). With the temporary stabilization of cotton prices in the early period, we suggest tracking on the one hand.

store up

On the other hand, whether the market demand can rise after the arrival of the traditional peak season, and the possibility that the cotton price fluctuates around 1.8-2 million in the short term and medium term is slightly larger.

Investment suggestion

Plate depth callback, the adjustment of high-quality stocks is the opportunity to buy: following the first two weeks of the plate into the dull period, this week textile and clothing sector deep callback, home textile enterprises with larger callback intensity earlier this week, rebounded more vigorously; and the more active theme stocks have experienced a two week decline. According to historical experience, we believe that the whole plate has entered a deep callback period, and the quality retail stocks, the future performance of the stock market has maintained a high degree of certainty, and the current adjustment is quality.

Individual stock

Buying opportunities.

Current valuation: under the premise of determining the performance growth, from the valuation level, on the one hand, with the overall callback of the plate, the valuation center has declined; on the other hand, the profit forecast of the rapid growth of the quality retailers' future performance does not have room for reduction.

Plate proposal: next week we suggest that defense is the main factor, and the adjustment of high quality stocks is the opportunity to buy.

Fundamentally speaking, our overall investment strategy for the textile and garment sector will continue to revolve around two main lines: the main line one focuses on small fast-growing enterprises, such as Luo Lai home textiles, fuanna, Meng Jie home textiles, etc. the mainline two is committed to value investing enterprises, such as Weixing share, seven wolves, Semir costumes, nine herdmen, etc. adjustment is the buying opportunity; for production enterprises, we recommend Yantai spandex.

Industry and company news

Industry news: in August, the export of textile and clothing was 25 billion 451 million US dollars, a decrease of 2.51% compared with that in August. In August, the total retail sales of clothing shoes and hats and needle textiles increased by 21.9% over the same period last year. In August, the added value of China's textile industry above designated size increased by 7.6%.

Industry attention next week: focus on the order situation of brand enterprises.

Company news: CB 2011 semi annual profit distribution and capital reserve fund to increase capital stock announcement.

Price fluctuation of raw materials

Cotton price: Cotton 328 this weekend, the price increases by 1.33% to 19620 yuan, to maintain the previous view: theoretically cotton is 18000-20000 yuan (328 level) more reasonable; in the 4 quarter cotton prices may stabilize at 20 thousand yuan or so.

Chemical fiber: entering the peak season, the price rise of chemical fiber is in line with historical practice.

The recent rebound in prices of viscose, polyester and cotton lint rebounded on the one hand because of the loss of the whole industry. On the other hand, the demand for high season demand is higher. If the demand in the peak season is not as good as we expected, the price increase of sticky gum may not be sustainable.