Li Yining: Annual Inflation Is Around 5% &Nbsp, And Prices Are Stable.

Will prices continue to rise this year? What are the causes of inflation in China? What is the best way to deal with it? How does the income gap between urban and rural areas arise? How should we deal with the problem? How can we solve the problem of employment pressure?

Yesterday, in the Guangzhou provincial CPPCC lecture hall, Li Yining, a famous economist of Peking University, analyzed the current economic situation and hot issues in China, and predicted that if there were no accidents, the prices will steadily decrease this year. The inflation rate is expected to remain at 5% throughout the year.

Mobilizing private capital and participating in urbanization.

"Opportunities are in China, where there are endless investment opportunities to guarantee China.

But where does the money come from? "The land finance has come to an end, and there is not much to sell.

The best way is to mobilize private capital and participate in urbanization.

To mobilize the enthusiasm of the people, Li Yining believes that the main body of investment should be market guidance rather than administrative units, which will reduce the enthusiasm of the people.

At the end of the speech, Li Yining concluded that it would be better to generalize the way of China's development with the "China Road". "It's better to use the Chinese mode than to use the Chinese way, and the Chinese mode may take a kind of immobilization. But how did China come through the Chinese road, including our own experience and lessons, so that the world could understand it more easily".

Prices are stable and inflation is about 5%.

There are mainly three types of inflation: demand pull, international input,

Li Yining made a detailed analysis of the current inflation problem in China. He said that unlike the inflation that occurred in China in the 90s of last century, the rising cost of production has become a new driving factor for this inflation.

"Cost push is the first time we encounter it," Li Yining said.

"Next is the rise in real estate prices", which is the result of demand boosting inflation and the reason for cost pushing inflation, as property prices rise, rents increase and living expenses rise.

"There is also an increase in the cost of financing," Li Yining said. In order to cope with inflation, the tightening of private lending costs increased by 3 to 5 percentage points.

However, Li Yining said that "the end of the demographic dividend era" is too early to say, "for China, the era of low quality labor has ended, but the mechanic era has just begun."

In the future, how should our country deal with inflation? Li Yining expounded his view with pork price rise as an example.

"Encourage pig raising at this time, but it is not so fast.

When you first said that the government encouraged pig raising, pork was on sale.

It's better to be pregnant for a few months. Pigs will be able to grow pigs for months. If you can get up with pork in half a year, to solve this problem, he thinks that we must gradually establish a standardized and sound national reserve system and a commercial reserve system. Besides, we should also crack down on speculation.

For this year's domestic price situation, he believes that as long as there is no major accident, the relevant policies of the country will gradually play its role. By the end of the year, prices should be stable and the annual inflation rate should be maintained at around 5%.

We must "enrich the people". That is the real wealth.

With the continuous growth of China's economy, employment pressure is increasing. Li Yining believes that this is because of the rate of economic growth and the rate of change in employment. Its cycle is different.

This is the famous Okun's law in western economics.

"Relying on the rate of economic growth can not solve the employment problem. What is the solution to employment? It depends on private enterprises.

70% of the new labour force is provided by private enterprises.

Li Yining believes that the development of industry is the wealth of the nation, the rich of the masses and the wealth of the people.

How can we help the development of private economy?

As long as tax cuts are reduced, 10 million small and medium-sized enterprises, 30 million self-employed households, and every small and medium-sized enterprise in China have increased several people, that is, tens of millions of people. Each individual boss has sought help from one or two relatives to solve tens of millions of people's employment.

Employment has increased, business has gone well, and state revenue has returned.

Tax reduction is the effect today, and taxes will increase after the day after tomorrow.

In 1840, the total amount of GDP in China was much larger than that in Britain.

This year, China's total GDP exceeds Japan, becoming the second largest economy in the world. But Li Yining reminds us with historical facts and lessons, "the total amount of GDP is important, but the structure of GDP is more important."

Looking back at history, Li Yining said, "in 1840, the total GDP in China was much larger than that in the UK, but China's GDP structure at that time was mainly agricultural products and handicrafts, while the UK was mainly the steel industry and the manufacture of machinery and equipment."

Besides the importance of the structure of GDP, the structure of human resources is also very important. "The total population of China is much higher than that of Britain in the Opium War, but the structure of human capital is far inferior to that of the United Kingdom. After the industrial revolution, the primary schools were popularized, and a large number of universities were set up in the middle schools, and a large number of scientists, technicians and financiers were trained.

At that time, the vast majority of Chinese peasants were illiterate, and the majority of women were illiterate. How many of them read science and technology and understand economic management?

Therefore, Li Yining stressed that "in 12th Five-Year, the most important thing is structural adjustment".

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Independent innovation is also an important supporting point for the pformation of economic development in the future.

Li Yining believes that state-owned enterprises have the advantages of large amount of capital and extensive resources, and private enterprises are more flexible. Therefore, state-owned enterprises and private enterprises should unite. The most important thing is that "innovation must dare to fail and bear failure".

Farmers must have property rights.

"People in the countryside take wives and children to work in the city, go out and lock the houses and become rats.

He had no money. When he went to town, the house became more and more expensive. He could not rent or rent the basement.

The basement of a house in Beijing is not so big. It has lived in 16 families and separated into 16 with cartons, so there is a word in Beijing, called the rat, and a mouse.

This is the story of the two mouse.

Li Yining started the analysis of the reasons for the income gap between urban and rural areas with the story of "two mice".

Li Yining said, "the residents of the city are state-owned, but the ancestral houses have property certificates, which can be pferred and mortgaged, while the opinions of farmers are very large. Ancestral houses do not have property certificates, they can not be pferred, they can not be mortgaged, and even rental is difficult."

The inequalities reflected in property rights are only part of the cause of the gap between urban and rural areas.

From the perspective of economics, Li Yining thinks that there is a gap between rural residents and urban residents in three "capital". Firstly, the gap between physical capital and rural residents can not be mortgaged by ancestral houses because there is no property right. This is one example. Secondly, the gap between human capital and rural residents is generally low education level. There is also a gap between social capital and rural residents. The interpersonal relationship network of rural residents is small, which can not effectively help their work and development.

Li Yining believed that there was a series of inequalities because of the huge gap between urban and rural areas between these three capitals. First of all, inequality in educational resources resulted in inequality in employment, resulting in income inequality, resulting in inequality of life, and finally reflected in the inequality of the next generation.

The consequence of the overall inequality is that the social class is immobilized and the occupation is hereditary. Wages, benefits, opportunities for promotion and promotion of human capital are better occupied by the urban people. The rural people can only enter these four bad "bad careers" to seek jobs.

"Where is the countermeasure?" Li Yining said. "First, farmers must have property rights.

The house and the homestead can be mortgaged so that he can have the first pot of gold. Secondly, the distribution of educational resources should be equally distributed, and the educational resources must be allocated. Then, let the peasants increase their social resources, which is self trespass, encourage them to rush, and let them fight in the market, and tell them to honor their credit, and slowly they will get up.