Economic Situation: 2012, Who Will Achieve Recovery?

In the first half of 2012, problems in Europe and the West will inhibit the whole world.

Standard Chartered Bank issued a research report in London that there will be two parallel speeds in 2012.

Standard Chartered

To develop

Standard Chartered predicts that the crisis in the developed economies is increasing. It is expected that the euro area (-1.5%) and the UK (-1.3%) economy will fall to a low level, and the US economic growth (+1.7%) will still be below the trend level.

In 2010, global economic growth was strong, with an increase of 4.3%.

The economic downturn in 2011 increased by about 3%.

Standard Chartered expects that due to the Western crisis, the economic growth rate in the first half of 2012 will obviously slow down, bringing the global economy's annual growth to 2.2%.

Li Laisi, chief economist and head of global research group at Standard Chartered Bank, said: "this shows that the trend of world economy to develop at two speeds will continue, and the West will be weak and the East will recover.

The world economy is fragmented, and it faces major policy difficulties.

But no one can be single.

In the first half of 2012, problems in Europe and the West will inhibit global economic growth.

In the second half of this year, strong growth in China and other emerging economies should boost global economic activity.

Recovery will be in the East, but the west can feel the impact.

If we need to explain the pformation of the balance of power, what is happening now is the best explanation.

Asia Africa growth rate is still the mainstream.

In its latest annual report on global focus, Standard Chartered predicts that GDP growth in Asia will decline from 7.3% in 2011 to 6.5% in 2012, but it remains stable.

China is expected to experience significant economic cooling in the first few months of 2012, but will be rebounded by major policies.

As a result, China's growth rate will drop from 9.2% to 8.1% next year.

India's growth rate in Asia's third largest economy accelerated, rising from 7% in the current fiscal year to 7.4% in the next fiscal year (since April 1, 2012).

According to the forecast, Indonesia's largest economy will increase from 6.5% to 5.8%.

There are important potential driving factors for growth in the emerging world, including the rapidly expanding middle class, the increase in infrastructure investment, and the increasing commercial links established around the "New Trade Corridor" connecting Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America.

These factors are likely to become more evident in the context of Europe's contraction and the decline in US consumption.

Standard Chartered believes that a similar recovery will also occur in Africa. The two largest economies, South Africa and Nigeria, may increase slightly in 2012, down from 3.2% and 7.2% to 3.1% and 6.9% respectively.

In Latin America, Brazil's growth rate may be reduced from 3% to 2.5%.

Differentiation is still a major problem in the Middle East. Resource rich economies are expected to recover, and the rate of decline in 2012 will be very small.

The asset bubble in the region has broken down, and the unsustainable credit boom has long been over, providing a stable foundation for growth.

The rise in oil prices indicates that the government is in good financial condition, enabling the authorities to implement counter cyclical fiscal policies to stimulate their growth in the West.

Li Laisi said: "the future depends on the interaction of basic elements, policies and confidence.

In 2012, the policy challenge will be very obvious.

In the first half of the year, emerging economies learned to use fiscal and monetary policies to drive growth.

But in the second half of the year, the further implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy and fixed commodity prices will also bring inflation risk back in the second half of the year.

From an investment perspective, it may also increase the shift towards macro prudential policies, including stricter capital controls. "

Foreign exchange market, new economy, currency strength

For the foreign exchange market, this means that the US dollar (USD) will be stronger in the near future, because the US dollar performs well in a risk averse environment.

But from the analysis of years of analysis, this indicates that the US dollar will weaken. This is due to the huge debt that the US economy is facing, and the continuous and gradual diversification strategy adopted by governments and other international investors.

In addition, because euro zone governments failed to reach a credible cooperative strategy and could not solve the problems in the region, the euro could also weaken rapidly in the first quarter of 2012 and enter a long-term downward trend.

The long-term weakness of the world's two largest reserve currencies indicates that the long term change to emerging economies and currencies is still continuing, reflecting the rising position of emerging economies in the global economy and their important role in Global trade.

It is expected that the trend of investment in good liquidity and investment grade emerging market currencies will continue to increase.

For the commodity market, although the fragile global economic situation is close to the situation in early 2009, the financial crisis in 2008 has led to a sharp reduction in investment in new projects, resulting in a severe shortage of raw materials and a solid foundation for commodity prices.

Even in the first quarter of 2012, global demand fell sharply, and the situation was more optimistic.