After Cotton Throbbing, "Worm Crawling" Remains.

In the past two weeks, Zheng cotton has gone out of a wave of "suspected strong" rebound, the 500 increase of the 1205 main contract on Wednesday.

Subsequently, the impact of ICE cotton breaking down, December 13th Zheng cotton low open weak oscillation, all day after the support of the 10 day line below the operation, turnover was slack, positions reduced.

The main CF1205 contract settlement price of 20425 yuan, down 90 yuan; the total market turnover of 53836 hands, compared with the previous trading day to reduce 6141 hands, accumulative total positions 228200 hands, reduce 4276 hands.

In fact, under the precondition of fundamental weakness, Zheng Mian has every time.

The macro environment and fundamentals are not optimistic, which has been emphasized many times in previous articles.

This fact is difficult to change in the short term.

Whether the purchase and storage of domestic cotton supply and demand situation

USDA report bad data

The international cotton market's recent data are also pessimistic. The US cotton export volume is negative last week. The USDA report shows that the global oversupply of cotton continues to deepen and stocks increase.

The specific data are as follows:

The US Department of agriculture (USDA) US cotton export weekly: on November 25th, -12 1, a week, the net signing volume of US cotton exports was about -0.77 tons, and the shipment volume was 51 thousand tons (48% higher than the previous week, 59% higher than the average value of nearly four weeks).

China signed 6 thousand tons of upland cotton this year.

USDA12 month report shows that consumption of bulk agricultural products has declined sharply.

Since the purchase of cotton by other major cotton consuming countries has been in a semi stagnant state, China's cotton business is still buying cotton outside China because of the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices due to the purchase and storage, which has reached 2000-3000 yuan / ton (to China's main port).

However, judging from the situation of textile enterprises in the mainland of China, the consumption of China is also very limited.

The output of cotton in the United States has been cut by 102 thousand tons, the amount of cotton used in factories has been cut by 44 thousand tons, and the export volume has been maintained at 2 million 460 thousand tons.

Final inventory of 762 thousand tons, inventory consumption ratio of 23.49%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points.

Global consumption and output were all down, leading to an increase in final inventory.

Due to the global macroeconomic uncertainty and the decrease of cotton ratio in textile mills, the weak market demand led to a sharp reduction in global cotton consumption by 638 thousand tons, of which 218 thousand tons were cut in India and 109 thousand tons in China and Turkey.

Output was cut by 102 thousand tons.

The final inventory rose 590 thousand tons to 12 million 556 thousand tons, and the inventory consumption ratio increased to 51.8%.

Storage and retrieval data:

In December 13, 2011, the China cotton reserve management company planned to store and store 2011 tons of cotton in 122400 tons, and the actual turnover was 51660 tons, with a turnover rate of 42.2%.

The turnover rate was 26% in the mainland and 60.8% in Xinjiang.

As of December 13th, cotton temporary storage and storage pactions totaled 1484820 tons this year, including 467700 tons in the mainland and 1017120 tons in Xinjiang.

China's textile export growth slowed down in November, but the outlook is not optimistic.

According to the latest statistics from China Customs, in November 2011, China's textile and clothing exports amounted to US $20 billion 392 million, an increase of 3.78% over the same period, an increase of 7.23% over the same period last year.

Among them, textile exports amounted to US $8 billion 35 million, an increase of 13.60% over the same period last year, and clothing exports amounted to US $12 billion 357 million, an increase of 3.46% over the same period last year.

In 2011 9-11, China's textile and clothing exports totaled US $63 billion 22 million, an increase of US $6 billion 189 million compared with the same period last year, an increase of 10.89%.

Among them, textile exports totaled $23 billion 432 million, an increase of 16.11% over the previous year, and clothing exports totaled $39 billion 590 million, an increase of 8.01% over the same period last year.

The European debt crisis and global economic weakness have led to a decline in global commodity demand, which may lead to a worsening of China's overall export environment in the coming months, so the prospects for textile exports will not be optimistic.

Earlier articles have pointed out that Zheng cotton will run between 19800 and 20800, and has now been fulfilled.

On the graph, Zheng cotton's multiple average lines are entangled together, and the market peristalsis.

Looking back on the fourth quarter of last year, Zheng Mian has fallen from the cloud to a worm in the mud.

The rebound is just a throb of worms.

As long as the fundamentals do not change significantly, Zheng cotton will continue to crawl under the narrow area where the fundamentals are suppressed.