Six Conjectures Of Dragon Year Opening

It is reported that at the end of the year,

Judging from the trend of the past years, the probability of the rise of the market after the Spring Festival is even greater.

According to statistics, in the 21 years from 1991 to 2011, the first trading day of the Shanghai stock market after the Spring Festival was 15 times, with a rising probability of more than 70%.

The first week went up 14 times.

This rule will probably continue this year.

After the long term adjustment of the pre holiday market, plus the good policies before the festival, the Spring Festival started after the Spring Festival.

Conjecture two: will management send out "red envelopes"?

Near the Spring Festival, A shares finally came to a good enough weight.

It is reported that the local pension market has made a major breakthrough. A southern province has been allowed to pfer the 100 billion basic pension fund to the National Social Security Fund Council and will invest in the first quarter.

This news greatly encouraged the stock market, and Shanghai and Shenzhen index rose sharply on that day.

After the new year's day, the market expects the central bank to reduce the reserve requirement rate more and more strongly.

In addition, the SFC, the stock exchange, the Ministry of Finance and so on, will also introduce the corresponding benefits such as IPO slowdown and tax policy adjustment, which is also worth looking forward to.

Conjecture three: will Europe's debt crisis come back?

The global economic situation in 2012 is still grim. In addition to the obvious signs of weak recovery in the United States, it is difficult for several big economies to lift the weak economic pace.

The European debt crisis has always plagued the global capital market, and the strength of Europe has always lingers. China's internal environment is also not optimistic. Steady growth has promoted the theme of the whole year, and the real estate bubble is still on the road to continue to collapse.

We believe that these factors will become the most uncertain factor of A shares in 2012.

Conjecture four: will the market "sudden change"?

At home, if the policy is looser, there will be a rebound in the market. Otherwise, the market will go down sharply, and all industries may enter the structural fluctuation with the influence of the policy. The index is more likely to have a structural rebound feature and a smaller reversal probability.

As the market enters a period of change, the expansion of index futures and double financing is expected to stimulate the rational valuation of blue chip varieties, and the structure of the dragon year is likely to be a reverse market structure, that is, large cap stocks are better than small cap stocks.

Investors should pay more attention to the band, take advantage of the drum and run fast, which will be the most important operation concept in the market.

Guess five: which section is the most blessed?

Before the Spring Festival, the market rebounded, and the market characteristics showed that the style pformation was in progress. The blue chip stocks represented by financial real estate and non-ferrous coal were rising, and the incremental capital was pouring into the market to drive the market to oscillate upward.

However, the high valuation plate represented by the gem and the small and medium sized board was hit hard, with the 15 times PE as the dividing line, the undervalued sector began to carry out the valuation repair market, and the overvalued plate was returning to value in succession, and the valuation premium between the blue chips and the non blue chips further narrowed.

Once the market style is formed, it is difficult to change. Therefore, we expect that the undervalued blue chips represented by finance, real estate and non-ferrous coal will still be the protagonists of the post holiday market.

Conjecture six: who is the first dragon in the year of dragon?

Over the years after the Spring Festival trading in the first day trading stocks, the future will have a certain market continuity.

Summarizing the industry on the first day after the Spring Festival, excluding the special background of the huge dividend policy in 2009, it is easy to see that the electronic category of the agricultural varieties and industry boom which is related to the Central Document No. 1 is rising in the year.

This year's Central Document No. 1 also stressed the importance of agricultural science and technology and the promotion of agricultural science and technology innovation as the focus of next year's work of agriculture, rural areas and farmers. As a support for agricultural products (000061) production and supply and development of modern agriculture, investors may wish to find the first record of the dragon in the industry of agricultural high-end machinery, irrigation machinery, biotechnology, food and seed industry, and precision agriculture and chemical industry.