Key Words Of China'S Economic "Two Sessions": Crossing Fog &Nbsp; Firm Navigation Mark

　 2012, the world situation is hazy, and the United States is in a fog. Economics The recovery is weak, and the European debt crisis continues to ferment.

2012, China's economic growth is slowing down, and structural spanformation is facing challenges. Deep reform is in the firing line.

Facing the challenging internal and external environment, forthcoming Two sessions(NPC and CPPCC) How can we set the tone for China's economy this year and lead the country through the fog and steady progress?

Analysts believe that "steady growth", "expanding domestic demand", "controlling prices" and "promoting industry" will become the key words of this year's NPC and CPPCC members' suggestions.

Steady growth: GDP growth or focus economic upgrading will resonate

The expectation of the annual GDP growth of the two conferences has always been the focus of attention both at home and abroad.

In 2011, China's GDP grew by 9.2% compared to the same period last year, with the global economic performance being weak and the internal and external environment complex.

Since 2012, China's economy has seen a slowdown in growth. China's local two sessions have also released the signal of "slowing down": in 2012, Beijing's GDP growth target was set to be "8%", the same as Shanghai, the lowest in the country. The eastern developed provinces, such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong and other places, have a clear intention to weaken the GDP growth target.

Zheng Xinli, executive vice chairman of the CPPCC National Committee and China International Economic Exchange Center, said that China's economic downturn has two factors, namely, active slowdown and passive slowdown. From the current policy, China's adjustment to the real estate industry and the adjustment of its economic structure will bring about a slowdown in the economic slowdown. The impact of the global economic recession on China's exports, imported inflation and foreign capital outflow will make China's economic growth downward, which is a passive slowdown.

In the face of the slowdown in China's economic growth, China's GDP growth at the one end carrying domestic employment and livelihood and grafting the world economy "engine" at the other end is particularly attracting attention.

George Soros, an international hedge fund investor, said at the Davos forum that the European debt crisis has led to the debt crisis. Exit With weaker demand, China may not be able to sustain more than 8% of its economic growth.

But then the standard Pool Co credit analyst said, "in 2012, China's economic growth will slow down to around 8%, and the possibility of slowing to 7% is only 1/10".

"2012 is a critical year for China's economic withdrawal from stimulating expansion and its return to spontaneous growth." Li Daokui, member of the CPPCC National Committee and member of the central bank's monetary Committee, said that "China's soft landing of the economy is expected to be fully realized and the growth rate will not be less than 8.5%". (micro-blog)

Opinions are different and growth is slowing down. In fact, at the central economic work conference held in December last year, "steady growth" surpassed "controlling prices" and was ranked first in the six major tasks of economic work this year.

Relative to the past 10% higher growth, China's economic growth slowed down, which means that the risk of overheating has been released and the economy will enter a reasonable growth range. Niu Wenyuan, member of the CPPCC National Committee and counselor of the State Council, said that GDP should not be blindly worshipped or GDP should be abandoned blindly. The core of China's economic upgrading is a "quality GDP" that pursues rationality and efficiency, and reduces natural costs, production costs, social costs and institutional costs.

Expanding domestic demand: stricter foreign trade environment and seeking countermeasures based on domestic demand

In the first two months of this year, many global enterprises such as Procter & Gamble, NOKIA, PepsiCo and other global enterprises announced layoffs. The layoffs in the world have spread again. The unemployment rate in the euro area has hit the highest level in 13 years. In February 15th, the US International Trade Commission launched an investigation on three kinds of products, including 13 Chinese companies involved in Xiamen TSTA and Shanghai Tian Chan Bao lighting appliances.

The head of the National Bureau of statistics believes that in view of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, it may be a difficult year ahead of China.

Wei Jianguo, Secretary General of the China International Economic Exchange Center, said that it is estimated that China's trade growth rate may be a single digit figure in 2012. Unlike the previous two digit growth, exports will gradually decline, but this is also the best period for us to adjust our foreign trade structure.

Dong Mingzhu, deputy director of the National People's Congress and general manager of GREE electric, said that the consensus of "structural adjustment without structural adjustment" is forcing enterprises to accelerate spanformation.

Analysts believe that the "expansion of domestic demand" and "structural adjustment" will become the high-frequency words of the two sessions this year.

"Expanding domestic demand must first open up new ideas and explore new fields." Yao Jingyuan, a special researcher of the State Council Counselor's office, said that China is still in an important period of strategic opportunity for development. Urbanization, modern service industry and aging population have brought investment development space. There is also much room for expansion, especially strategic emerging industries.

How to promote consumption growth? Yao Jingyuan thinks, "the key is to reform the distribution system. At present, the government's revenue and business income growth is faster, and it is entirely possible to increase income by cutting income cake.

Chen Weiya, deputy member of the CPPCC National Committee and deputy director general of China Oriental performing arts group, thinks that the development of cultural industry in 2012 is a bright spot. "The cultural industry is a pillar industry in many developed countries. The first export of the US is not a car plane, but a Hollywood blockbuster. A movie "Afanda", a year's global box office reached about 2000000000 dollars, equivalent to a lot of cities in China a year's fiscal revenue!

Opportunities are always accompanied by challenges. Yao Jingyuan said that although the world economy is sluggish, the external dependency of China's economy has dropped from 57.3% in 2008 to 50.1% last year. China's economy has shown a return from stimulating growth to independent growth. {page_break}

Price control: CPI rise or fall, resource price change will restart

In 2011, China overtook India as the world's largest consumer of gold, of which gold bar consumption increased by 50.7% compared to the same period last year, and gold consumption increased by 25.2% over the same period last year. This is a reflection of people's worries about inflation.

In the past year, emerging market countries have been battling inflation. China's CPI has risen by 5.4%, exceeding the target of 4% around the beginning of the year. Vietnam has become the "worst hit area" and the price increase has reached 20%.

To curb inflation, emerging economies generally adopt a shrinking monetary policy. Experts analyzed that the lagging effect of the tightening of monetary policy in early China is continuing to play a role. Grain production has also lowered inflation expectations. The recent sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the United States has led to the return of international commodity prices or the pressure of China's import inflation. Therefore, CPI growth is expected to decline steadily this year.

Price stabilization will open space for the reform of resource prices. "Last year, the price situation was grim, and the government postponed the pace of price adjustment of some resource products and utilities. These reforms will not be implemented this year," said Jianping, chief economic officer of the National Information Center.

At the beginning of the year, raising the price of electricity on the Internet, announces the pilot scheme of the residents' ladder price, and the pilot project of natural gas price reform in Guangdong and Guangxi, has released a clear signal for reform.

How to break the ice of the price reform of resource products will become a hot topic for the representatives of the two sessions.

The development and Reform Commission said that this year, the price ladder system of residential electricity will be tried out, and the reform plan of refined oil prices will be launched. The pilot scheme of natural gas price reform will be introduced, and the reform of water resources and other charges will be promoted, and the trading system of emissions of major pollutants will be established.

Cai Jiming members believe that in the path selection of price reform of resource products, the departments concerned will proceed according to the order of "easy to get ahead", "small impact" and "low income groups".

Hing Industry: promoting capital return to entities to help small and micro monopolize monopoly

A financial crisis sweeping the globe has made developed countries in Europe and the us well aware of the danger of "abandoning reality and running away from reality". All countries have put the development of the real economy on the agenda.

In China, the "closing tide" and "running tide" frequently occurred in 2011, also sounded the alarm for Industrial Hollowing.

Lu Feng, general manager of Wenzhou Xin Chen Trading Co., Ltd., told reporters that the shoe factory made a pair of shoes to earn 3 yuan, and the profit was about 8%. But at present, the bank loan interest rate is 1 points per month, making shoes is not profitable; usurious interest rates are about 5 cents per month, and the annual interest rate is over 50%. Many enterprises can not earn money, rely on lending, frying money, or to the three tier cities to engage in real estate, mining.

The central economic work conference, the national financial work conference and the subsequent series of intensive measures will make the "service entity economy" "supporting the development of small and micro enterprises" become a hot topic for the representatives of the two sessions. The Ministry of Finance and other central ministries and commissions recently conducted research on the current situation of small and micro enterprises throughout the country. Experts expect new support policies to be promulgated during the two sessions.

"The more complicated the situation is, the more firmly we must firmly grasp the solid foundation for developing the real economy." Chi Fulin, the chairman of the CPPCC National Committee and the China (Hainan) reform and Development Research Institute, said that the recent policies not only made the small and micro enterprises see the dawn, but also made the small and medium-sized banks more clearly define the strategic positioning of supporting small and micro enterprises.

To guide investment in industry, Sun Lijian, vice president of Economics School of Fudan University, pointed out: "the profit space of the real economy can not be opened. Even if monetary policy is loosened again, enterprises will only do the thing of" selling sheep's head and selling dog meat "if they take money.

Economist Lai Weimin said that the new "non-public 36" article proposed that private capital should be invested in various industries in China. Only when we open to private capital, finance, aviation, communications, medical and other fields, can we bring social capital into the real economy.

In this regard, the State Council has promoted the reform of monopoly industries as an important task of economic restructuring. In the first half of this year, the implementation details of the "new 36 items" should be worked out.