Printed Cotton Is Prohibited From Exporting &Nbsp; Viscose Staple And Polyester Benefit
India banned exports and international cotton supply tightened.
In March 5th, the India government issued a notice to ban all exports of cotton products (except cotton waste) in India. The ban covers export orders already registered by the government.
India
As the world's second largest cotton producer and exporter, cotton exports accounted for 13% of the total volume of international cotton trade in 2010/2011.
As a crop product, cotton yield is controlled by planting area and yield per unit area. In the past five years, there has been little change in cotton planting area and yield per unit area, and cotton output in the whole world has remained stable.
In addition to the major cotton exporting countries in the world, cotton production capacity in the US, Uzbekistan, Australia and Brazil can not fill the gap caused by India. Therefore, the international cotton prices will rise due to the tight supply and demand of policies. The upstream and downstream industry chains of cotton importing countries in India will be significantly affected.
Domestic cotton price rise is expected to enhance, viscose staple fiber and polyester significantly benefit
China is currently the largest producer of cotton, the largest importer and consumer.
China's cotton imports account for over 20% of consumption, and India is an important part of China.
Cotton import
In 2010 and 2011, India and cotton accounted for 20% of the total domestic imports.
India's export ban will directly impact the domestic cotton supply market, and the signed cotton orders have not been implemented. The domestic cotton price is likely to re enter the rising channel due to tight supply.
In addition, domestic cotton consumption depends heavily on foreign cotton products, which determines the close relationship between domestic cotton prices and international market prices.
There is a big gap in the international cotton supply because of the ban on export of India cotton. The possibility of raising prices by international traders is greater.
Domestic manufacturers are bound to turn to other alternative textile fibers in order to reduce production costs.
The two kinds of chemical fibers similar to cotton performance are viscose staple fiber and polyester staple fiber, and the demand for two kinds of fibers will increase, so that prices will rise simultaneously.
Viscose staple fiber has better performance, but domestic capacity is smaller. Polyester staple fiber will become a major substitute.
At the same time, the price increase of PET staple will promote the prosperity of PTA production, and will also increase the price of polyester filament.
Analysis of related beneficial listed companies
The increase of downstream demand makes the upstream cost pressure of the related chemical fiber enterprises smoothly downward, and the profit level can be improved.
According to the elasticity analysis of listed companies, we believe that for viscose staple fiber enterprises, Australia ocean technology, Nanjing chemical fiber, Sanyou chemical, Xinxiang chemical fiber and
ST Ji fiber
The benefits are significant; for polyester enterprises, Hengyi petrochemical, Tong Kun shares, Huaxi shares, Rongsheng petrochemical and Xinmin technology benefit greatly.
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