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Disturbance Factors Increase &Nbsp; A Share Structural Opportunities Do Not Decrease.

2012/3/9 8:28:00 12

Thursday,

Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities

The Shanghai Composite Index closed 20 days after the surge.

The two cities are generally flat, with the volume being basically flat, with no apparent amplification.

Market hot spot fast switching, strong cycle shares once again rise, securities, coloured and real estate sector rise in the front.

Looking forward to the next stage, the overall pattern of market liquidity has not changed, but the disturbance factors have increased significantly, and the short-term market is expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation.

We believe that structural opportunities will take the place of trend opportunities. Investors are advised to pay attention to stocks with relatively low valuation and relatively stable earnings growth and "passive inflation" opportunities.

The pattern of liquidity adequacy has not changed.

The loose liquidity pattern has not changed much, and the risk in the A share market is still limited.

On the one hand, global liquidity is very abundant, driving risky asset prices to remain high.

First of all, after two rounds of quantitative easing, the US adopted a distorted policy to significantly reduce the yield of long-term treasury bonds and curb the rise in the cost of capital.

Subsequently, the ECB launched a long-term refinancing scheme to improve the liquidity of the banking industry and reduce the harm to the economy in the process of bank deleveraging.

In the process of competition between Europe and the United States, the US is expected to introduce "aseptic quantitative easing" again, which will significantly strengthen global liquidity expectations and provide strong support for risky asset prices.

On the other hand, the domestic liquidity ratio improved and the broad interest rate level dropped.

Both the interbank lending rate and the weighted average lending rate of financial institutions are in the downward process after the Spring Festival.

The central bank's continuous open market and over subscription of treasury bonds indicate that market liquidity has improved significantly.

From the whole year, in 2012, the government's work report put forward "to reduce the financing cost of the real economy", which means that the policy is expected to be adjusted and the interest rate level is kept relatively low.

In addition, the slowdown in the economy and the downward trend of inflation will reduce the demand for capital in the real economy, and will further push the broad interest rate level down and support it.

A shares

The valuation is at a reasonable level.

On the whole, the former means that in the environment of global liquidity, although there is not enough evidence that the improvement of economic data can be sustained, it is difficult to eliminate the greater hidden danger in the process of crisis management. However, quantitative policies are indeed conducive to promoting asset price rise.

From the latter perspective, the fall of broad interest rate in China may not mean a turning trend, but it is also beyond the understanding of seasonal factors.

From an optimistic point of view, both means that the "killing valuation" scenario in 2011 is hard to repeat in the A share market this year.

Structural market concerns

In the short term, the expected effect gradually diminished, and disturbance factors began to increase.

First, new credit or less than expected.

Under the multiple influences of loan to deposit ratio, capital adequacy ratio and credit limit control, credit supply in the first quarter is not optimistic.

On the other hand, the development of off balance sheet business such as financial products has also dragged down the growth of bank balance, which further restricted the rise of loan balance.

Two, foreign exchange is expected to fall significantly.

Corresponding to the trade surplus of US $27 billion 200 million in January, we expect a big trade deficit in February.

In addition, from the monitoring of capital flows, the amount of capital flowing into China in February was significantly lower than that of some emerging economies.

Under the combined effect of the trade deficit and the reduction of hot money, foreign exchange occupied or dropped significantly in February, thereby affecting the scale of the central bank's basic currency.

We believe that

Credit growth

Or changes in foreign exchange, will bring a certain degree of negative impact on the A share market, thereby curbing the further upward movement of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock index.

In the process of market sawing, we look forward to further policy measures to boost market confidence and provide new impetus for stock index to go strong again.

From the perspective of macro policy hedging, investors can focus on whether the reserve requirement ratio will be lowered again after the two sessions.

In addition, from the market perspective, although there is no evidence that A shares are subject to expansion interference, investors should really assess the impact of the normalization of IPO and the reduction of industrial capital.

On the whole, the A share market will remain in a narrow range, and the structural market will take the place of the trend market.

With the disclosure of annual reports and quarterly reports, the excess earnings of the next stage will depend on the matching degree between valuation and performance.

On the one hand, the change of market liquidity is difficult to fundamentally impact the valuation level, and the possibility of "valuing" again is limited.

On the other hand, the valuation system is dynamic rather than static, which means that earnings growth brings dynamic valuation changes and promotes index range fluctuations.

From a structural point of view, we recommend investors to pay attention to stocks with relatively low valuations, relatively stable earnings growth and opportunities for passive inflation.