Cotton Early Comment (2012.03.26)

Cotton early comment (2012.03.26)

[trend review]

Last Friday, the CF1209 contract went up and down.

At the opening of 21380 points, the highest 21410 points, the lowest 21340 points, 21360 points, up 20 points, or 0.09%, compared with the previous trading day.

A total turnover of about 76 thousand hands, an increase of about 15 thousand hands compared with the previous day.

Hold 324548 hands, reduce 1474 hands.

According to the positions held by the top 20 members, the number of bulls increased from 553 to 92101, and by 283 to 109546.

The clearance of 17445 hands is 616 less than that of the previous day's clearance.

The domestic spot market: China's cotton price index (CCIndex328) is 19538 yuan / ton (-9), and China's cotton import price index (FC Index M) is 100.51 (+0.74).

The import cost is 16122 yuan / ton at 1% customs duty, and 16611 yuan per ton according to the sliding price.

In March 2012, the exchange rate of cotton import and export tariff was 1 yuan =6.2958 yuan.

The market volume was reduced and the average price dropped. The total turnover was 13560 tons, a decrease of 960 tons compared with the previous trading day, and the cumulative order quantity was 101980 tons, an increase of 1340 tons.

The main MA1204 contract closed at 19970 yuan, down 85 yuan.

Warehouse receipts: 1956 registered exchange receipts, an increase of 41 copies compared with the previous trading day, with an effective forecast of 1363.

Quote for downstream yarn: KC32S 25800 (-100), JC40S 31100 (-100).

Peripheral market: the U. S. cotton May contract received the cross line, the opening 89.58, the highest 90.50, the lowest 89.32, the closing 89.63, up 0.05 cents.

[fundamental analysis]

In the domestic side, we planned to close and store 87600 tons yesterday, with a total turnover of 22730 tons and a total turnover of 3017650 tons, of which 1666240 tons in Xinjiang and 1351410 tons in the mainland.

It is understood that at present, cotton enterprises in Xinjiang are generally few cotton stocks, about 75-80 tons.

We are waiting for 120-130 tons of cotton and 50-60 tons of imported cotton.

According to customs statistics, in February, China's cotton yarn imports reached 123 thousand and 500 tons, a record high, and cotton cloth exports were 368 million meters, down 17.93% from the same period last year, and plunged sharply.

[general comment]

Zheng cotton CF1209 contracts were supported near 21200, and demand rebounded in the short term.

Due to the lack of global cotton demand, the weak downstream, yarn sales difficulties, low price foreign yarn impact on the domestic market.

Downstream demand is a shackle.

At present, it is concerned about the reduction of planting area this year.

However, the downstream demand is not improving.

The upper and lower space is limited, Zheng cotton will continue to weak shocks.

[operation suggestion]

Zheng cotton 1209 contract today or continue weak shocks, interval [2120021500], the height of the rebound will be limited.

Weak ideas remain unchanged.