China'S Economic Growth Continued To Slow Down By &Nbsp, And The Market Hoped For Fine-Tuning Measures.

China's economic growth continues to slow down, and market hopes for fine-tuning measures

A senior manager of a listed company specializing in auto parts talked about such a simple but clear judgement when it talked about the business situation in the first quarter of this year. Reporters learned that the company's first quarter business fell nearly 30% compared with the same period last year.

"9.8%, 9.7%, 9.5%, 9.1%, 8.9%", since the fourth quarter of 2010, Economic growth Has been declining. Macroeconomic data in the first quarter of this year have not yet been released, but the economic situation is not optimistic. Fine tuning signal I am expecting more and more.

Old engines slow down new engines

This year, China's "three carriages" growth rate has dropped. Fixed asset investment in the whole country increased by 21.5% over the same period last year, 2.3 percentage points lower than that of last year, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods fell by 3.4 percentage points compared with last December. In February, the largest trade deficit in the past 10 years was the biggest.

"The two old engines of investment and export are no longer as powerful as before, and the new engine of consumption has not yet been fully developed, and it is in such an alternating time." Zheng Lei, joint director of international banking and asset management, said in an interview with reporters.

Shao Yong, a business owner of garment trade in Shenzhen, told reporters that he used to be mainly engaged in clothing export, but now he has completely turned to China, but the situation is not optimistic, and sales have not improved much.

On the other side, from Credit data The real economic situation reflected is also not optimistic. Credit growth in the first two months of this year shows a common feature of "insufficient effective credit demand", which is mainly caused by external demand and corporate earnings forecasts. Similarly, the structure of public loans in the first two months is still "short, long and short", which indicates that enterprises are still not optimistic about earnings prospects and unwilling to integrate more medium and long-term loans to increase investment.

"At present, China's economy is running at an overall low level, and the pace of economic growth will continue to slow down." Lian Ping, chief economist at 4.67,0.00,0.00%, said.

Recently, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises in China has begun to decline. It shows that the production of industrial enterprises in China has been greatly affected by the internal and external economic environment. In fact, the domestic economic growth rate continued to slow down slightly, and the continuous difficulties in the export industry operation have led to a negative growth in the profit of industrial enterprises for the first 1-2 months in 27 months.

Necessary steps for structural adjustment

It is undeniable that the current economy is entering a period of pace adjustment. Neither internal factors nor the external international economic environment will support China's economy to continue to maintain excessive growth. In March this year, the government's work report also promptly adjusted the GDP growth target slightly to a level of 7.5%.

China's economy has slowed down to some extent. It seems that the slowdown is precisely the rhythm of China's economic restructuring, and is also a necessary step for structural adjustment of China's economy, according to Liu Ligang, director of Economic Research of the Greater China region of ANZ.

However, there are more economic stabilization factors in the pace of pace adjustment. In the fourth quarter of 2011, the GDP growth rate dropped less than market expectations. In March, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index PMI reported 53.1%, rising for fourth consecutive months, indicating that economic growth has been steady and coordination has increased.

Whether the future of China's economy will stabilize or continue downward will be more inclined to the former.

"Overall, the performance of the traditional market is declining, but the share of the traditional market can be offset by opening up new markets." Xu Weimin, chairman of Shanghai Silk Group Co, told reporters that for most foreign trade enterprises, the share of traditional markets in the United States, Japan and Europe accounted for about 70%.

Assistant General Manager of the China Shipping Container Lines Co and Ye Yu man, Secretary of the board of directors, said that after the Spring Festival, the situation is not bad, and the overall situation is expected to not be too bad this year.

Liu Ligang believes that although there will be some "slowdown" in comparison with the previous ones, the gradual recovery of China's economy since last November has been confirmed. Moreover, after entering the March, electricity consumption in all regions is showing a general recovery, indicating that the "production season" of China's economy is also gradually coming.

The market hopes to make steady progress and fine tune measures.

April is often the traditional macro regulation in China. Window month " China's economic trend is up and down. After the first quarter, macroeconomic regulation and control factors will play a big role, and the market seems to be full of expectations for policy fine-tuning. The market generally expects that the recent macroeconomic regulation or control will mainly contain two meanings: one is to seek stability, and the other is to advance steadily; the two is to adjust the structure and promote reform.

The signal is also growing. "To guide monetary and credit growth steadily and moderately, and maintain a reasonable scale of social financing." The central bank monetary policy committee also revealed a hint of signals in the first quarter meeting. Compared with the past, this regular meeting emphasized the steady and moderate growth of monetary credit.

Bank of communications 6 released the latest issue of the "China Fortune index", the current index reached 128, jumped 13 units, and the sub index rose across the board, the range is generally at the highest level in history. For example, the economic index of the first level index reached 131 and increased by 16 units, and the data collection time just happened in the first quarter.

"The risk of a hard landing for China's economic growth in 2012 is very small. As long as the policy is reasonable and the regulation is appropriate, the economy will maintain a reasonable growth rate and show a trend of low before and after high." Lian Ping thinks.