The Three Major Fundamentals Of The A Share Market Are Complicated.

The three major fundamentals of the A share market are complicated.

After a continuous walk around the market, the market showed its exciting side on the first trading day after the Qingming Festival, in addition to the "banking sector". MONOPOLY "Blame" and "heavy pressure", the market has seen a trend of inflation, and this time there is also a "leading brother" with strong market appeal.

And before the Ching Ming Festival, the market was dispirited, pessimism was more widespread, and even analysts saw below 2000 points.

After a short Qingming holiday, the market swept away the pessimism and haze before, and entered the exuberant situation with great enthusiasm. Is it really ghosts? Carefully dismantling all kinds of information conveyed during the Qingming Festival is indeed very paradoxical.

Internationally, the Fed is QE3. Third quantitative easing The impact of dystocia and the sharp rise in yields on Spanish bonds has been a great pressure on the stock market. The two peripheral information should be clear to A shares, but the central bank president Zhou Xiaochuan recently reminiscent of "moderate growth in monetary and credit" and his statement that "China must consider global liquidity in the use of policy tools", the dystocia of the Fed's QE3 and the relaxation of the central bank's future monetary policy.

At home, the information during the Qingming Festival was dazzled. Among them, the new round of IPO reform was clearly perceived as a positive factor by the market. But this does not mean that the expansion will slow down. On the contrary, it may become the precondition for the issuance of new shares in the future. Moreover, the impact of institutional changes on the market tends to lie in the medium rather than the short term.

Information from a higher level makes it easier for the market to understand unilaterally. For example, Li Keqiang, vice premier of the State Council, emphasized in Boao that expanding domestic demand should be the primary task at present, which made people see opportunities for domestic demand, but also made people doubt that foreign demand might really fail. For example, Wen Jiabao, premier of the State Council, reiterated the adjustment of pre tuning, which made people see the possibility of loosening of policies, but it also aggravated people's worries about the lack of economic vitality.

From the understanding of these information, the market meaning of information often has two sides, or even extremely complex. Take the more important information of the moment, though there are many advantages, there are many bad ones. Moreover, almost every information itself is very complicated. There are both positive and negative factors. It is very difficult to get the trend of consistency or certainty from these information.

Because decisions on market trends are still fundamental. We believe that there are three basic aspects that can not be ignored at present: first, the determination of the regulatory authorities to do more markets is unusually determined; two, the trend of monetary credit easing will not change; three, the internal driving force of economic development is not enough.

For the first two articles, there is a consensus in the market. The difference lies in the strength of the sentence. But for the third article, the difference is more prominent. Some people quoted the official PMI just released. Purchasing manager index There are different opinions on this. The data show that PMI was 53.1% in March, 2.1 percentage points higher than that in February, and it continued to be above the critical point.

However, the PMI data released by HSBC show that in March, PMI was 48.3%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points, and this was a slowdown in the Chinese manufacturing industry for fifth consecutive months. This is a huge gap with official data.

In this regard, we do not think that official data is purely fabricated. It may truly represent the prosperity of China's economy in a partial (state-owned sector). However, because this data is mainly based on the sample of state-owned enterprises, and the state economy is often interfered by visible hands, even if it is far beyond the critical point of 50, it can not prove that the development of the whole economy is full of internal driving force.

On the contrary, HSBC PMI, which mainly takes private SMEs as a statistical sample, can better reflect the adequacy of the internal driving force of the economy itself. Unfortunately, this data shows the poor survival situation of SMEs, which reveals the inherent driving force of economic development is very worrying.

At present, the three basic forces that decide the market are interacting with each other, and the positive and negative factors are also being frequently resolved. This makes it difficult for the market to form a trend market, which will not be good, but it will not be bad. Unless the third forces are the internal driving force of economic development, they are convincing. Exergy