Textile Imports Shrink Due To Uncertain Global Economic Prospects

As the global economy is in a very uncertain situation, and the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area continues to hit the confidence of enterprises and consumers, the textile and clothing market in 2012 is likely to fall into a downturn. The EU economy, which began to recover in 2010, is expected to collapse this year. It is generally predicted that the EU economy will further decline this year, and its GDP will actually decline by another 0.5%. The latest Textile Outlook International reports that the EU GDP will grow by only 0.8% in 2013.

The views of European textile manufacturers reflect the above report. It was originally reported that the European market would recover significantly in 2011, but in the fourth quarter of last year, it turned into an obvious recession. The current view is that in the second half of 2012 -- even longer, textile Our trade will be affected by the continuation of the European economic storm. In fact, in the first quarter of 2012, the EU's imports of ready to wear sharply decreased by 12%. The prospect of the United States is not so pessimistic. It is estimated that the GDP growth of the United States in 2012 will increase from 1.7% in 2011 to 2.2%, and slightly decrease to 2.1% in 2013. Nevertheless, the imports of ready-made clothes from the United States were also affected, with the import volume in the first quarter of this year decreasing by 3.9%.

The weakness of the US and EU markets also affected the exports of several Asian countries. Their overall exports grew strongly in 2011, but slowed down in the first quarter of 2012. Taking Indonesia as an example, the textile and Garment export The value increased by 18.2%, but only 5.2% in the first quarter of 2012. Thailand's export value grew by 7.5% in 2011, but declined by 15.3% in the first quarter of 2012. In 2011, the value of ready-made clothing exports of the Philippines grew by 11.4%, but only 1.1% in the first quarter of 2012. Exports from several other countries also slowed.

The value of India's garment export in fiscal year 2011/2012 (as of March 31, 2012) declined significantly by 11.9%, but it grew by 4.7% in the previous fiscal year. Textile exports increased by 34.7% in the fiscal year 2010/2011 and only 0.4% in the fiscal year 2011/2012. The above situation fully reflects the weakness of the country's exports, and the growth of India's GDP in 2012 has been revised downward; In September 2011, it was predicted that the growth rate of India's GDP in 2012 would be 7.5%, and in April this year, it was predicted to decline to 6.9%. By the first quarter of this year, the growth rate of India's GDP had only reached 5.3%, showing the lowest growth rate of the country's GDP in nine years.

The economic performance of mainland China is similar - the country has been the engine of world economic growth for many years, and the GDP growth rate of mainland China has also been revised down from 9.0% to 8.2%. Results The growth rate of global GDP in 2012 is estimated to decline from 4.1% in 2010 and 2.5% in 2011 to only 2.1% in 2012. Nevertheless, emerging markets, especially the so-called BRIC countries (including Brazil, Russia, India and mainland China), will remain the key to supporting the growth of global trade in the future. Taking India as an example, it is predicted that in the ten years from 2010 to 2020, the consumption scale of the country's domestic textile and clothing market will grow by 169%, and the amount will increase significantly from 52 billion dollars to 140 billion dollars.