What Is Influencing The Price Imperceptibly? The Clothes Will Be Expensive Again Next Year?

domestic cotton May follow

July Liuhuo, September clothing. At the foot of Tianshan Mountain, large tracts of cotton are growing mature. In this traditional spin In the peak demand season, the head of the raw material department of a cotton textile enterprise in Hangzhou is struggling with one thing: "Do you want to increase the cotton inventory?"

The cotton price has experienced a round of big rise and fall, and returned to the starting point two years ago. Since this year, the domestic textile industry has been plagued by the inverted domestic and foreign cotton prices. The quota of imported cotton has basically been used up. The National Development and Reform Commission has launched a new round of temporary cotton storage, and the dumping and storage is about to end. The cost of raw materials for domestic enterprises is under great pressure.

The inventory of enterprises has decreased a lot

Two years ago, at the beginning of September, the domestic cotton price started from 19000 yuan/ton, rose to 33000 yuan/ton within two months, and fell back after reaching the peak in February 2011. On September 8 last year, the 2011 Interim Cotton Storage Plan was launched, with the lowest price of 19800 yuan/ton, and the domestic cotton price basically fluctuated around the central axis of 19800 yuan/ton. This is in sharp contrast to the sharp decline in international cotton prices, which has also led to a sharp increase in the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices. At present, domestic cotton prices are about 4000 yuan/ton more expensive than foreign cotton prices. High cost cotton textile products have no advantage in the international market, and the annual cotton import quota is just a drop in the bucket.

The person in charge of raw materials of the cotton textile enterprise mentioned above said that due to the sharp increase of the difference between internal and external cotton prices, under the pressure of cost, "our raw material inventory has decreased a lot since this year."

On September 3, in order to alleviate the contradiction of quota shortage and restrict the import of low-cost foreign cotton, and ensure the textile enterprises to use cotton when they are out of business, the state-owned reserve cotton began to sell and store almost at the same time, with the current 18500 yuan/ton as the base price for competitive auction. This month, the cotton needed for production can also be obtained from the reserve cotton auction.

Zhang Xianbin, director of the Economic and Trade Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, introduced that the purpose of launching reserve cotton is to meet the needs of textile enterprises. In October, a large number of new cotton will be listed, and it is unnecessary to launch reserve. With the research and consent of various departments, the deadline for launching reserve cotton is September 29, and the deadline for bidding qualification of textile enterprises is September 20.

"After dumping and storing, the number of cotton on the market will decrease, and it is expected that the price of cotton on the market will rise by then," said the person in charge.

Whether the stock preparation enterprise is waiting in peak season

On September 7, the national cotton monitoring price index was 18692 yuan/ton. According to the 2012 Interim Cotton Purchase and Storage Plan jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and other eight departments, the condition of 20400 yuan/ton lower than the temporary purchase and storage price for five consecutive working days has been met. On September 10, the temporary cotton storage of 2012 was officially launched.

In 2012, the temporary purchase and storage price of cotton was set at 20400 yuan per ton, an increase of 600 yuan per ton over the previous year. As of September 17, 300000 tons of storage plans had been released and 5680 tons had been sold.

"In August and September, the price of cotton has actually increased a lot compared with that in June and July. At present, the price of cotton in the market is about 19000 yuan/ton, but the quantity has begun to decrease, and there are signs of reluctance to sell in the market." The person in charge said that the purchase and storage of cotton was officially launched, with an unlimited amount of 20400 yuan/ton, Since the price on the market is obviously lower than the purchase and storage price, a large number of new cotton will choose to enter the national reserve after listing

The person in charge said that it is now September and the autumn and winter season is coming, which was originally traditional spin busy season. According to the current situation, the price of cotton will continue to rise, and the cost of raw materials will rise. However, the demand of the downstream industry is unknown, and the rising cost is difficult to transmit downward. To be honest, it is difficult to see the situation clearly now.

Hangzhou enterprises have little overall impact

The pressure from the opposite direction is the lack of terminal demand. According to customs statistics, from January to August, China clothing Exports reached US $99.48 billion, down 0.7% year on year; Textile exports reached US $62.51 billion, down 0.7% year on year; In terms of domestic sales, according to the data released by the China Textile Industry Federation, the growth rate of domestic demand for textiles and clothing in China has slowed down since 2012. From January to July, clothing above the national quota shoes The actual growth rate of retail sales of hats and knitwear excluding price factors was 13%, 5.7 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year. From January to July, the domestic sales output value of textile enterprises above designated size was 2577.03 billion yuan, up 12.5% year on year and down 20.3 percentage points year on year.

However, compared with Shandong, Jiangsu and other major cotton textile provinces, Zhejiang is less affected. Taking Hangzhou as an example, Xiaoshan's textile is mainly chemical fiber, Yuhang Wang Minhong, secretary-general of the Home Textile Industry Association, said that Yuhang's home textile industry also uses less cotton yarn. The Association made a survey in June this year, and the fluctuation of cotton prices has little impact on Yuhang's home textile enterprises.

"Since the financial crisis, in addition to strengthening research and development, Yuhang's home textile enterprises have strengthened cooperation with downstream industries such as sofa fabric enterprises in channel expansion, as well as the development of direct stores. This year, the export situation of enterprises has declined slightly, but the overall situation is relatively stable," said the industry insiders.