October 11, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan futures] concerns USDA Report

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20514 yuan / ton; 229 level 19641 yuan / ton; 328 level 18782 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17940 yuan / ton.

domestic

Product: polyester staple fiber 10900 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 14890 yuan / ton; C32S price 25690 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: 10, domestic cotton spot prices continue to operate smoothly.

At present, the downstream market of textiles is still biased towards the weak, and the downstream demand will be difficult to improve in the short term.

3. imported cotton: in October 10th, the price of China's main cotton imported from cotton fell steadily, and the West African cotton quotation fell by 1 cents. The prices of the other varieties were stable, and Egypt's long staple cotton fell by 1-2 cents.

With the approaching of the end of the year, orders for overseas Christmas holidays are increasing, and sales of some textile enterprises are starting to get better. However, global supply is abundant and raw material purchase options are diverse, which makes textile enterprises not eager to purchase. The market bearish mentality is still very heavy. It is generally believed that the USDA monthly report will be bad news.

4. cotton purchase and storage: on the 10 day, the China cotton reserve management company plans to purchase and store 102600 tons of cotton in 2012, and the actual turnover is 75890 tons.

As of October 10th, 2012 cotton temporary storage and storage pactions totaled 610970 tons, of which 109050 tons were traded in the mainland and 501920 tons in Xinjiang.

5.ICE cotton: in October 10th, the ICE cotton December contract maintained a narrow range after a slight opening, closing sharply before the closing price. The settlement price was slightly higher than the previous trading day, and the volume decreased.

This year, global cotton supply is abundant and demand is low.

The wait-and-see attitude of market participants has not changed.

Summary:

During the national day, cotton enterprises bought cautiously, and domestic seed cotton prices fluctuated slightly; the spot market paction remained light and deadlock had not yet been broken; the international cotton price rose first and then fell, and the narrow fluctuation was the main keynote; the downstream textile yarn market was more stable.

In October 9th, the relevant government departments will hold a meeting to analyze the current cotton production and marketing situation and deploy the cotton work in 2012. The NDRC will implement the temporary purchasing and storage policy to ensure open purchase and storage.

We believe that the three order structure of China's cotton price will not change before the global cotton demand has become better. On the one hand, we maintain the idea that "cotton prices will run low for a long time", on the other hand, we suggest that the idea of maintaining a more dips in the storage period is suggested.

[Wanda futures]USDA monthly report short left us cotton slightly higher.

On Thursday, USDA will announce the monthly supply and demand report in October. The market is worried about the damage to the western cotton area of Dezhou. Meanwhile, the monthly report will be profitable. The short price will continue to close and the cotton price will rise slightly. In December, the contract will rise 0.26 cents to 72.1 cents / pound.

But global consumption remains weak and Chinese buyers are imported.

Restrictions, the three largest cotton producing countries in the world, China, the United States and India are listed on the new cotton market. With the increasing demand for supply, the ICE cotton will remain weak.

Wednesday ICE cotton rose slightly, the main force in December contract stable 70 cents / pound and the short-term average, although the short-term average line system maintained a drop in the order, but KD and MACD indicators in the low adhesion has formed signs of rising and ranking, MACD index green column will continue to shorten the soon to enter the strong area of the 0 axis, down kinetic energy weakened, rebound may continue, but it is difficult to change the long-term weak pattern.

In recent years, Zheng cotton has been in a dilemma. The purchase and storage of stocks and storage are easier than expected. The price of seed cotton keeps stable, and the spot sales price of new cotton is stable, which constitutes a support for cotton price.

But there is no sign of improvement in global consumption. The economic downturn is still the main reason for the downturn in consumption. The main cotton producing countries in the northern hemisphere are listed on the market. The US and India are facing great pressure of supply. China's purchase is difficult to be stimulated because of the lack of import quotas. In this case, although Zheng cotton has shown strong resilience, there is no room for further growth. As time goes on, the downward pressure on Zheng Mian will become bigger and bigger. Short term rebound is difficult to change the long-term weakness. To maintain a long-term short cut, we should continue to increase the 1301 contract blank, short-term target 19400 yuan / ton line.

[MEIKO futures] pay attention to USDA monthly data guidance period cotton narrow oscillation

Overnight, in October 10th, the ICE cotton contract in December narrowed slightly after opening slightly, with a sharp oscillation before closing. The settlement price was slightly higher than the previous trading day, and volume decreased.

In short, the global supply of cotton is abundant and demand is low this year.

The wait-and-see attitude of market participants has not changed.

It is widely expected that the United States Department of agriculture will be more likely to reduce global cotton consumption this evening.

In the international market, in October 10th, the price of China's main cotton imports fell steadily. The West African cotton quotations fell 1 cents, while the prices of the other varieties were stable. Egypt's long staple cotton fell 1-2 cents.

With the approaching of the end of the year, orders for overseas Christmas holidays are increasing, and sales of some textile enterprises are starting to get better. However, global supply is abundant and raw material purchase options are diverse, which makes textile enterprises not eager to purchase. The market bearish mentality is still very heavy. It is generally believed that the USDA monthly report will be bad news.

Domestic market, 10, domestic cotton spot prices continue to operate smoothly.

At present, the downstream market of textiles is still biased towards the weak, and the downstream demand will be difficult to improve in the short term. However, because the purchase and storage will digest domestic cotton output in large quantities, domestic cotton prices have not gone down and remain high at a high demand.

National Reserve dynamics, 1 and October 10th, plans to pass the national cotton exchange market, the competition Corps 5034 tons of cotton, a total of 117 bundles, the resource level is 2-3 grades, the total average cotton turnover is 2.58, the 328 grade price is 18597 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day fell 259 yuan / ton.

2, as of October 10th, 2012 cotton temporary storage and storage pactions totaled 610970 tons, including 109050 tons in the mainland, and 501920 tons in Xinjiang.

Spot quotation, October 10th, the US C/A cotton 87.85 (cents / pound), discount general trade port delivery price 14991 yuan / ton (calculated by sliding tax); Australia cotton 92.85, discount general trade port delivery price 15635 yuan / ton; Uzbekistan cotton 87.50, discount general trade port delivery price 14947 yuan / ton; West Africa cotton 84.10, discount general trade port delivery price 14531 yuan / ton; India cotton 83.10, discount general trade port delivery price 14412 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price A index is 19641 yuan / ton; the B index is 18782 yuan.

Market analysis, the overall operation of the textile industry has not yet been out of trouble, the order is sluggish, cotton prices do not have enough action, but the end of the dumping and storage of high grade lint market supply is relatively small, textile enterprises raw material inventory is not enough, all to the lint spot.

Bring some support.

Overnight ICE cotton rose slightly, the domestic Zheng cotton back to the previous shock interval.