This Autumn Cotton Market Is Frequently Seen In A Strange Way: Throwing And Throwing Parallel Cotton Prices.

New cotton market is coming this year.

Frequent "strange phenomena":

Last month, the national reserve cotton was thrown and stored and sold at the same time. The operation of purchasing and storing and throwing the reserve price was double track: the price of the new cotton market in 2012 was set at 20400 yuan per ton, and the execution period was from September 1st until March 31st next year. At the same time, another policy was to sell the national reserve cotton and the base price of the outlet was 18500 yuan / ton. The time was from September 3rd and ended in September 29th.

At the moment, although the national dumping reserve has ended, the domestic cotton market still operates two kinds of prices at the same time, one is the State purchasing and storing price, 20400 yuan per ton, the other is the market price, which is 18600 yuan per ton.

"Throwing and storing and storing at the same time is a phenomenon that has never happened before."

Ma Junkai, Deputy Secretary General of Dezhou Cotton Association of Shandong Province, told this newspaper that the two prices of cotton market price and storage and purchase price exist at the same time, and this is a peculiar phenomenon this year.

Wucheng and Xiajin under the jurisdiction of Dezhou are among the largest cotton textile bases in China.

"During this period, the state's purchase and storage support the domestic cotton prices.

With the end of storage and storage, cotton prices may return to around 19000 yuan per ton after next April. "

Ma Junkai said.

According to the data released in October 19th, the volume of storage and storage has exceeded 1 million tons, which is 150 times that of the same period last year.

But according to industry estimates, cotton stocks in the central storage cotton reached 4 million tons last year, the highest in previous years.

Cotton price double track

At the same time, the national development and Reform Commission's explanation at the recent cotton industry conference is that it must be done.

8 and September is the shortage of cotton. When the country is out of green, even though the country has issued 400 thousand tons of imported cotton quota under the "processing trade" project, the quota for domestic factories must be used this year, but it still can not meet the annual consumption of about 9 million tons per year in China's cotton textile industry.

In October 25th, the national cotton monitoring price index was 18748 yuan / ton, continuing the relatively stable market price of the market price of 18600 yuan per ton for a period of time.

And more than two months ago, cotton prices at home and abroad still had several thousand yuan price differentials.

In August 15th, the average trade price of cotton trade in the United States was 15126 yuan / ton (calculated according to the sliding tax), Australia cotton was 15782 yuan / ton, India cotton was 14628 yuan / ton, and the Chinese cotton price index of that day was 18379 yuan / ton.

Because of the great disparity in cotton prices at home and abroad,

Enterprises reflect the requirements of the state to liberate import quotas, but the state can not let go of quotas. A compromise is to set aside part of the reserve cotton.

The final plan is China reserve cotton Management Corporation (short term "cotton in storage") throwing 1 million tons of storage.

China's Cotton Association is resolutely opposed to this matter when the plan for storing and storing the goods is released at the same time, and the cotton trade associations and cotton processing enterprises all over the country are against it.

He said.

Ma Junkai told this newspaper that cotton purchase and storage began last year to become a regular national practice. Every year in September, it began to store and store, and changed the situation of temporary storage and purchase. Therefore, the purchase and storage is a normal behavior, but it is not normal to store and store at the same time.

According to his statement, from the purpose of purchasing and storing, the high purchase price of 20400 yuan listed on new cotton is to protect the interests of farmers, and the purpose of selling is to take actions taken by the state to suppress market prices when market prices are too high and rising rapidly.

However, in the early September, the price of cotton market was around 18500 yuan, which was not high compared with the purchase price this year and the price in the same period in previous years.

Data show that in early September 2010, the domestic cotton price started from 19000 yuan / ton, and rose to 33000 yuan / ton in two months, and it fell back after reaching its peak in February 2011.

In September 2011, domestic cotton prices were basically around 19800 yuan / ton of central axis.

"In the early days, we also estimated that there would be a phenomenon of throwing aside one side this year.

The price of dumping and storage is 18500 yuan per ton, which is very good for textile enterprises. The price of raw materials has been alleviated, but it is still 3000~5000 yuan higher than the international cotton price. The quota can still be sold to thousands of yuan per ton.

The purchase price was raised to 20400 yuan per ton.

The market outlook is not so optimistic.

Yang Hongwen, director of Shandong Wucheng De Yuan Textile Co., Ltd.

At the moment, although the national dumping reserve has ended, the domestic cotton market still operates two kinds of prices at the same time, one is the State purchasing and storing price, 20400 yuan per ton, the other is the market price, which is 18600 yuan per ton.

Cai Min, deputy general manager of Wei Qiao textile, said that the current market price of cotton and the state purchase and storage price are running in two ways, the fundamental reason is that the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices is relatively large and can not be carried out on a price platform.

He believes that the purchase and storage is

Sex is the promise to farmers, while domestic cotton price is high and consumption increases, which is more dependent on imported cotton.

To this end, the state has been placing reserves and quotas to make up for the difference and stabilize the market.

But on the one hand, there is not much demand in the market at present. Cotton price has no substantial driving force. On the other hand, China's cotton price is 5000~6000 yuan higher than that of foreign countries.

Under the double track system of cotton price, the market effect of purchasing and storing is obvious, while the actual effect of dumping is not good.

The data showed that cotton storage and storage in 2012 were close to 1 million 400 thousand tons, while the total reserves in September were less than 550 thousand tons. The total storage volume of China's storage pool was 493 thousand and 600 tons, and the Xinjiang Corps sold 50 thousand tons.

"We want to release 1 million tons, but in fact (except for the BINGTUAN sale), we only throw about 490 thousand tons, less than half."

Ma Junkai said.

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Purchase and storage price is high.

In the cotton spinning industry, the "two track system" is not common.

Last year, when the state began collecting and storing, the price was 19800 yuan per ton, and the market price soon approached the state's purchase and storage price. But this year, the situation is different. The price of new cotton storage and storage made by the state is 600 yuan more than that of last year.

Cai Min, deputy general manager of Wei Qiao textile, said the reason why the price is high is mainly to consider farmers' income. Even so, farmers are unwilling to grow cotton.

"The planting area has decreased last year.

The planting area is not very good this year, and the purchasing price of wheat and corn is rising. Farmers feel that planting cotton is not as good as planting wheat and corn, because cotton is more manpower consuming, and more labor and more labor are needed in cotton growing process.

Liu Qingtong, who is the president of the cotton professional cooperative in Wucheng county and the director of the Wucheng Agricultural Machinery Bureau, said that cotton can sell about 1600 yuan per mu, which is not artificial cost, and has not made money.

Now the farmer's capital is basically not profitable.

Many farmers are reluctant to grow cotton, and this year the planting area is reduced by about 10%~20%.

Planting cotton is too expensive, and prices fluctuate every year.

Employment requires at least more than 10 workers per mu.

Each worker is 100 yuan ~300 yuan per day.

For example, spraying, cotton field management, fertilization and so on, all need work.

Especially when picking cotton, it is hard work and hard work.

Xia Hangyang, director of a small cotton processing plant in Xiajin, Shandong, said that farmers will grow crops instead of making money this year.

Corn and wheat can earn about 1100 yuan per mu, but less for manual use.

Nearly half of the farmers in Xiajin planted cotton last year, half of them growing grain. Most of them have grown grain instead of cotton this year.

Cotton production and textile important base in Shandong, Wucheng and Xiajin this year cotton production is very low. Cotton farmers have about 400 catties of cotton per mu, compared with 500 kg per mu last year, and reached 700 kg in the past year.

According to the statistics of Dezhou Cotton Industry Association, the cotton planting area in Dezhou has been reduced by 15%.

Cotton processing enterprises and textile enterprises, the overall boot rate is around 70%; cotton processing enterprises 80% are involved in the purchase of seed cotton, but the amount of acquisition is not very large.

Cai Min said that the purchase and storage of Xinjiang cotton is better this year, but the inland purchase and storage is not very good.

So far, the state has collected about 1000000 tons of cotton, 70% of Xinjiang cotton and 30% of the mainland.

In the past few years, the amount of cotton growing in the mainland was large and Xinjiang was small.

Cotton production is estimated to be 6 million tonnes this year, unchanged from last year, but not in demand.

Ma Junkai said that under the two prices in the cotton market, cotton farmers are benefited, because the price of the state's purchase and storage is very high; cotton purchasing and processing enterprises are not profitable, but cotton textile enterprises are very reluctant because the price of raw materials is too high.

Yang Hongwen said that the national implementation of the 20400 yuan per ton storage price, for cotton textile enterprises, the impact has long been out.

This is equivalent to raising the cost of raw materials for textile enterprises.

Originally, the labor cost of the enterprise is very high, coupled with the high cost of raw materials, textile enterprises can be alive is a miracle.

Hidden dangers in the new deal

In fact, the price adjustment of cotton temporary purchase and storage this year is related to the cotton price "roller coaster" since last year.

Last August to August this year, domestic cotton prices climbed from 17 thousand yuan / ton to 34 thousand yuan / ton in March this year, and then dropped from 34 thousand yuan / ton to nearly 20 thousand yuan / ton now.

To this end, the national development and Reform Commission, the national supply and Marketing Corporation and the Central Cotton store specially set up a cotton research team to go deep into the textile enterprises, local governments and cotton growers in Jiangsu and Shandong, and study the new cotton policy.

In the process of introducing the new cotton policy this year, the views of several sides have been in the game: from the perspective of the peasants, one side thinks that from the state policy, the purchasing and storage system should insist on formulating higher purchase and storage prices and benefit farmers.

China Cotton Textile Association has proposed that the import quotas should be liberalized, and then the state will not buy and store, directly subsidizing farmers.

However, the opposition thinks that the quota of China's cotton industry will be controlled by foreign countries, and that the state will not purchase and store directly to subsidize the farmers, so it is impossible to operate in the current cotton industry chain.

Yin Guangyu, general manager of Shandong Wucheng cotton and hemp Group Corporation, said that the cotton market was bad this year, and the state purchase price was controlled, and the cotton enterprises did not make money. The farmers were reluctant to sell because of low cotton production and reluctant sale this year. The cotton sold by the state was also reluctant to use the cotton sold by the state to buy and use it, and to buy less and buy it frequently, because the price of throwing the store was still much higher than that of the imported cotton.

Xia Hangyang said he also wanted to enjoy the benefits of the high price of the national cotton storage and storage, but the state only received 400 types of equipment for the purchase and storage of the country, and the cotton processed by the small cotton processing plant failed to meet the requirements for storage and purchase.

Xia Hangyang's cotton processing plant has not yet started to pick up cotton, and began work in early September last year.

He said that there was no profit at the moment, and he could only drag on without starting the market.

There are 87 cotton processing plants in Dezhou with 400 types of equipment, which are basically used for storage and enjoy a higher purchase price of 20400 yuan per ton.

This year, the new cotton listed, the cotton textile enterprises in Wucheng have not changed much.

Yang Hongwen, director of Shandong Wucheng De Yuan Textile Co., Ltd., said that the current operating rate of German yuan is 2/3, which is very good in the surrounding area.

Many cotton processing and textile enterprises in Xiajin have stopped production, and 100% have limited production.

In the same period last year, the market was very good. Last year it was three shifts.

The market is not good, everyone is bound to yield. At present, the output of the surrounding textile enterprises can account for about half of the total capacity.

Yang Hongwen said that the price of national storage and purchase is set at 20400 yuan this year. Such a high purchase price is not good for textile enterprises. It can only increase the cost of textile enterprises and increase the survival difficulty of enterprises.

It is to protect the interests of farmers, but it hurts the interests of workers.

Farmers should be subsidized so that cotton prices will go with international market prices.

At present, domestic cotton textile enterprises are not at all on the same level with others in international competition.

Ma Junkai said that in the coming months, the cotton market is still relatively low.

With the end of storage and storage, cotton prices may return to around 19000 yuan per ton after next April.

This market price is a relatively balanced point for the whole industry chain.

If the textile industry is not high enough, the farmers will not do so.

This is the domestic cotton price balance point.